Tidal response to sea‐level rise (SLR) varies in different coastal systems. To provide a generic pattern of tidal response to SLR, a systematic investigation was conducted using numerical techniques applied to idealized and realistic estuaries, with model results cross‐checked by analytical solutions. Our results reveal that the response of tidal range to SLR is nonlinear, spatially heterogeneous, and highly affected by the length and bathymetry of an estuary and weakly affected by the estuary convergence with an exception of strong convergence. Contrary to the common assumption that SLR leads to a weakened bottom friction, resulting in increased tidal amplitude, we demonstrate that tidal range is likely to decrease in short estuaries and in estuaries with a narrow channel and large low‐lying shallow areas.

Concerns have grown over the increase of nutrients and pollutants discharged into the estuaries and coastal seas. The retention and export of these materials inside a system depends on the residence time (RT). A long-term simulation of time-varyingRT of the Chesapeake Bay was conducted over the period from 1980 to 2012. The 33-year simulation results show that themeanRT of the entire Chesapeake Bay systemranges from 110 to 264 days, with an average value of 180 days. The RT was larger in the bottom layers than in the surface layers due to the persistent stratification and estuarine circulation. A clear seasonal cycle of RT was found, with a much smallerRT in winter than in summer, indicating materials discharged in winter would be quickly transported out of the estuary due to the winter-spring high flow. Large interannual variability of the RT was highly correlatedwith the variability of river discharge (R 2 =0.92). The monthly variability of RT can be partially attributed to the variability of estuarine circulation. A strengthened estuarine circulation results in a larger bottom influx and thus reduces the RT. Wind exerts a significant impact on the RT. The upstream wind is more important in controlling the lateral pattern of RT in the mainstem.

Despite comprising a small portion of the earth’s surface, lakes are vitally important for global ecosystem cycling. However, lake systems worldwide are extremely fragile, and many are shrinking due to changing climate and anthropogenic activities. Here, we show that Poyang Lake, the largest freshwater lake in China, has experienced a dramatic and prolonged recession, which began in late September of 2003. We further demonstrate that abnormally low levels appear during October, 28 days ahead of the normal initiation of the dry season, which greatly imperiled the lake’s wetland areas and function as an ecosystem for wintering waterbirds. An increase in the river-lake water level gradient induced by the Three Gorges Dam (TGD) altered the lake balance by inducing greater discharge into the Changjiang River, which is probably responsible for the current lake shrinkage. Occasional episodes of arid climate, as well as local sand mining, will aggravate the lake recession crisis. Although impacts of TGD on the Poyang Lake recession can be overruled by episodic extreme droughts, we argue that the average contributions of precipitation variation, human activities in the Poyang Lake catchment and TGD regulation to the Poyang Lake recession can be quantified as 39.1%, 4.6% and 56.3%, respectively.

No abstract

No abstract

It is instructive and essential to decouple the effects of biological and physical processes on the dissolved oxygen condition, in order to understand their contribution to the interannual variability of hypoxia in Chesapeake Bay since the 1980s. A conceptual bottom DO budget model is applied, using the vertical exchange time scale (VET) to quantify the physical condition and net oxygen consumption rate to quantify biological activities. By combining observed DO data and modeled VET values along the main stem of the Chesapeake Bay, the monthly net bottom DO consumption rate was estimated for 1985-2012. The DO budget model results show that the interannual variations of physical conditions accounts for 88.8% of the interannual variations of observed DO. The high similarity between the VET spatial pattern and the observed DO suggests that physical processes play a key role in regulating the DO condition. Model results also show that long-term VET has a slight increase in summer, but no statistically significant trend is found. Correlations among southerly wind strength, North Atlantic Oscillation index, and VET demonstrate that the physical condition in the Chesapeake Bay is highly controlled by the large-scale climate variation. The relationship is most significant during the summer, when the southerly wind dominates throughout the Chesapeake Bay. The seasonal pattern of the averaged net bottom DO consumption rate (B

This is a PDF file of an unedited manuscript that has been accepted for publication. As a service to our customers we are providing this early version of the manuscript. The manuscript will undergo copyediting, typesetting, and review of the resulting proof before it is published in its final form. Please note that during the production process errors may be discovered which could affect the content, and all legal disclaimers that apply to the journal pertain. Highlights  Complex physical processes in Chesapeake Bay and the adjacent shelf are investigated by a cross-scale baroclinic model.  Recently developed techniques are applied, including a flexible vertical grid system, an implicit transport solver, etc.  Good model skills are achieved with the techniques mentioned above and an accurate representation of bathymetry.  The importance of bathymetry for estuarine modeling and the effect of bathymetry smoothing are discussed quantitatively.

There are increasing concerns about the impact of worsened physical condition on hypoxia in a variety of coastal systems, especially considering the influence of changing climate. In this study, an EOF analysis of the DO data for 1985-2012, a long-term numerical simulation of vertical exchange, and statistical analysis were applied to understand the underlying mechanisms for the variation of DO condition in Chesapeake Bay. Three types of analysis consistently demonstrated that both biological and physical conditions contribute equally to seasonal and interannual variations of the hypoxic condition in Chesapeake Bay. We found the physical condition (vertical exchange+temperature) determines the spatial and seasonal pattern of the hypoxia in Chesapeake Bay. The EOF analysis showed that the first mode, which was highly related to the physical forcings and correlated with the summer hypoxia volume, can be well explained by seasonal and interannual variations of physical variables and biological activities, while the second mode is significantly correlated with the estuarine circulation and river discharge. The weakened vertical exchange and increased water temperature since the 1980s demonstrated a worsened physical condition over the past few decades. Under changing climate (e.g., warming, accelerated sea-level rise, altered precipitation and wind patterns), Chesapeake Bay is likely to experience a worsened physical condition, which will amplify the negative impact of anthropogenic inputs on eutrophication and consequently require more efforts for nutrient reduction to improve the water quality condition in Chesapeake Bay.