The FNA-trained classifier was able to classify an independent set of FNAs in which substantial RNA degradation had occurred and in the presence of blood. High tolerance to dilution makes the classifier useful in routine clinical settings where sampling error may be a concern. An ongoing multicenter clinical trial will allow us to validate molecular test performance on a larger independent test set of prospectively collected thyroid FNAs.

BRAF mutations are uncommon in nodules with atypia of undetermined significance or follicular lesion of undetermined significance or follicular neoplasm or suspicious for follicular neoplasm cytology. Most cytologically indeterminate nodules that proved to be malignant were also BRAF-, and all nodules that were false-negative by GEC were also BRAF-. Similarly, all BRAF+ specimens were also GEC Suspicious. Neither GEC test sensitivity nor specificity was improved by addition of BRAF mutation testing.

Analytical sensitivity, analytical specificity, robustness, and quality control of the GEC were successfully verified, indicating its suitability for clinical use.

The promise of personalized medicine will require rigorously validated molecular diagnostics developed on minimally invasive, clinically relevant samples. Measurement of DNA mutations is increasingly common in clinical settings but only higher-prevalence mutations are costeffective. Patients with rare variants are at best ignored or, at worst, misdiagnosed. Mutations result in downstream impacts on transcription, offering the possibility of broader diagnosis for patients with rare variants causing similar downstream changes. Use of such signatures in clinical settings is rare as these algorithms are difficult to validate for commercial use. Validation on a test set (against a clinical gold standard) is necessary but not sufficient: accuracy must be maintained amidst interfering substances, across reagent lots and across operators. Here we report the development, clinical validation, and diagnostic accuracy of a pre-operative molecular test (Afirma BRAF) to identify BRAF V600E mutations using mRNA expression in thyroid fine needle aspirate biopsies (FNABs). FNABs were obtained prospectively from 716 nodules and more than 3,000 features measured using microarrays. BRAF V600E labels for training (n=181) and independent test (n=535) sets were established using a sensitive quantitative PCR (qPCR) assay. The resulting 128-gene linear support vector machine was compared to qPCR in the independent test set. Clinical sensitivity and specificity for malignancy were evaluated in a subset of test set samples (n=213) with expert-derived histopathology. We observed high positive-(PPA, 90.4%) and negative (NPA, 99.0%) percent agreement with qPCR on the test set. Clinical sensitivity for malignancy was 43.8% (consistent with published prevalence of BRAF V600E in this neoplasm) and specificity was 100%, identical to qPCR on the same samples. Classification was accurate in up to 60% blood. A double-mutant still resulting in the V600E amino acid change was negative by qPCR but correctly positive by Afirma BRAF. Non-diagnostic rates were lower (7.6%) for Afirma BRAF than for qPCR (24.5%), a further advantage of using RNA in small sample biopsies. Afirma BRAF accurately determined the presence or absence of the BRAF V600E DNA mutation in FNABs, a collection method directly relevant to solid tumor assessment, with performance equal to that of an established, highly sensitive DNA-based assay and with a lower nondiagnostic rate. This is the first such test in thyroid cancer to undergo sufficient analytical and clinical validation for real-world use in a personalized medicine context to frame individual patient risk and inform surgical choice.

Critical illness in COVID-19 is an extreme and clinically homogeneous disease phenotype that we have previously shown1 to be highly efficient for discovery of genetic associations2. Despite the advanced stage of illness at presentation, we have shown that host genetics in patients who are critically ill with COVID-19 can identify immunomodulatory therapies with strong beneficial effects in this group3. Here we analyse 24,202 cases of COVID-19 with critical illness comprising a combination of microarray genotype and whole-genome sequencing data from cases of critical illness in the international GenOMICC (11,440 cases) study, combined with other studies recruiting hospitalized patients with a strong focus on severe and critical disease: ISARIC4C (676 cases) and the SCOURGE consortium (5,934 cases). To put these results in the context of existing work, we conduct a meta-analysis of the new GenOMICC genome-wide association study (GWAS) results with previously published data. We find 49 genome-wide significant associations, of which 16 have not been reported previously. To investigate the therapeutic implications of these findings, we infer the structural consequences of protein-coding variants, and combine our GWAS results with gene expression data using a monocyte transcriptome-wide association study (TWAS) model, as well as gene and protein expression using Mendelian randomization. We identify potentially druggable targets in multiple systems, including inflammatory signalling (JAK1), monocyte–macrophage activation and endothelial permeability (PDE4A), immunometabolism (SLC2A5 and AK5), and host factors required for viral entry and replication (TMPRSS2 and RAB2A).

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