Globally, collapse of ecosystems—potentially irreversible change to ecosystem structure, composition and function—imperils biodiversity, human health and well‐being. We examine the current state and recent trajectories of 19 ecosystems, spanning 58° of latitude across 7.7 M km2, from Australia's coral reefs to terrestrial Antarctica. Pressures from global climate change and regional human impacts, occurring as chronic ‘presses’ and/or acute ‘pulses’, drive ecosystem collapse. Ecosystem responses to 5–17 pressures were categorised as four collapse profiles—abrupt, smooth, stepped and fluctuating. The manifestation of widespread ecosystem collapse is a stark warning of the necessity to take action. We present a three‐step assessment and management framework (3As Pathway Awareness, Anticipation and Action) to aid strategic and effective mitigation to alleviate further degradation to help secure our future.

As a consequence of global climate-driven changes, marine ecosystems are experiencing polewards redistributions of species - or range shifts - across taxa and throughout latitudes worldwide. Research on these range shifts largely focuses on understanding and predicting changes in the distribution of individual species. The ecological effects of marine range shifts on ecosystem structure and functioning, as well as human coastal communities, can be large, yet remain difficult to anticipate and manage. Here, we use qualitative modelling of system feedback to understand the cumulative impacts of multiple species shifts in south-eastern Australia, a global hotspot for ocean warming. We identify range-shifting species that can induce trophic cascades and affect ecosystem dynamics and productivity, and evaluate the potential effectiveness of alternative management interventions to mitigate these impacts. Our results suggest that the negative ecological impacts of multiple simultaneous range shifts generally add up. Thus, implementing whole-of-ecosystem management strategies and regular monitoring of range-shifting species of ecological concern are necessary to effectively intervene against undesirable consequences of marine range shifts at the regional scale. Our study illustrates how modelling system feedback with only limited qualitative information about ecosystem structure and range-shifting species can predict ecological consequences of multiple co-occurring range shifts, guide ecosystem-based adaptation to climate change and help prioritise future research and monitoring.

In the present study we investigated inter-annual coral disease dynamics, in situ disease progression rates, and disease-associated coral tissue mortality in the Wakatobi Marine National Park (WMNP) situated in the coral triangle in South-East Sulawesi, Indonesia. In 2005, only 2 known syndromes were recorded within the sampling area transect surveys: white syndrome (WS; 0.42% prevalence) and growth anomalies (GA; 0.15% prevalence), whilst 4 diseases were recorded in 2007: WS (0.19%), Porites ulcerative white spot disease (PUWS; 0.08%), GA (0.05%) and black band disease (BBD; 0.02%). Total disease prevalence decreased from 0.57% in 2005 to 0.33% in 2007. In addition to prevalence surveys, in situ progression rates of 4 diseases were investigated in 2007: BBD on Pachyseris foliosa, P. rugosa and Diploastrea heliopora, WS on Acropora clathrata, and brown band (BrB) and skeletal eroding band (SEB) diseases on Acropora pulchra. BrB and WS had the highest progression rates, 1.2 ± 0.36 and 1.1 ± 0.07 cm d -1 , respectively, indicating that diseases may have a significant impact on local Acropora populations. BBD had the lowest progression rate (0.39 ± 0.14 cm d -1). WS caused the most severe recorded total tissue mortality: 53 923 cm 2 over a period of 36 d. Sedimentation and coral cover were studied and a highly significant drop in coral cover was observed. This study provides the first documentation of spatio-temporal coral disease dynamics from Indonesia. Despite low total disease prevalence, progression rates comparable to the ones observed in the Caribbean and Australia indicate that diseases may threaten the reef framework in some locations and add to the degradation of coral reefs in a region already at high risk from anthropogenic impacts.

Southern Ocean ecosystems are globally important. Processes in the Antarctic atmosphere, cryosphere, and the Southern Ocean directly influence global atmospheric and oceanic systems. Southern Ocean biogeochemistry has also been shown to have global importance. In contrast, ocean ecological processes are often seen as largely separate from the rest of the global system. In this paper, we consider the degree of ecological connectivity at different trophic levels, linking Southern Ocean ecosystems with the global ocean, and their importance not only for the regional ecosystem but also the wider Earth system. We also consider the human system connections, including the role of Southern Ocean ecosystems in supporting society, culture, and economy in many nations, influencing public and political views and hence policy. Rather than Southern Ocean ecosystems being defined by barriers at particular oceanic fronts, ecological changes are gradual due to cross-front exchanges involving oceanographic processes and organism movement. Millions of seabirds and hundreds of thousands of cetaceans move north out of polar waters in the austral autumn interacting in food webs across the Southern Hemisphere, and a few species cross the equator. A number of species migrate into the east and west ocean-basin boundary current and continental shelf regions of the major southern continents. Human travel in and out of the Southern Ocean region includes fisheries, tourism, and scientific vessels in all ocean sectors. These operations arise from many nations, particularly in the Northern Hemisphere, and are important in local communities as well as national economic, scientific, and political activities. As a result of the extensive connectivity, future changes in Southern Ocean ecosystems will have consequences throughout the Earth system, affecting ecosystem services with socio-economic impacts throughout the world. The high level of connectivity also means that changes and policy decisions in marine ecosystems outside the Southern Ocean have consequences for ecosystems south of the Antarctic Polar Front. Knowledge of Southern Ocean ecosystems and their global connectivity is critical for interpreting current change, projecting future change impacts, and identifying integrated strategies for conserving and managing both the Southern Ocean and the broader Earth system.

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Southern Ocean food webs are of major importance to humans and the global system, underpinning diverse values and services including the existence of wildlife populations, high-value fisheries, and carbon sequestration (Grant et al., 2013). Historically, the emphasis of food web studies in Antarctica has related to the dominance of Euphausia superba (Antarctic krill) and the dependencies of so many of the Southern Ocean predators on that species (Brasier

Graphical AbstractGraphical summary of multiple aspects of Southern Ocean food web structure and function including alternative energy pathways through pelagic food webs, climate change and fisheries impacts and the importance of microbial networks and benthic systems.

ABSTRACT. Transdisciplinary approaches that consider both socioeconomic and biophysical processes are central to understanding and managing rapid change in coral reef systems worldwide. To date, there have been limited attempts to couple the two sets of processes in dynamic models for coral reefs, and these attempts are confined to reef systems in developed countries. We present an approach to coupling existing biophysical and socioeconomic models for coral reef systems in the Mexican state of Quintana Roo. The biophysical model is multiscale, using dynamic equations to capture local-scale ecological processes on individual reefs, with reefs connected at regional scales by the ocean transport of larval propagules. The agent-based socioeconomic model simulates changes in tourism, fisheries, and urbanization in the Quintana Roo region. Despite differences in the formulation and currencies of the two models, we were able to successfully modify and integrate them to synchronize and define information flows and feedbacks between them. A preliminary evaluation of the coupled model system indicates that the model gives reasonable predictions for fisheries and ecological variables and can be used to examine scenarios for future socialecological change in Quintana Roo. We provide recommendations for where efforts might usefully be focused in future attempts to integrate models of biophysical and socioeconomic processes, based on the limitations of our coupled system.