Present-day precipitation–temperature scaling relations indicate that hourly precipitation extremes may have a response to warming exceeding the Clausius–Clapeyron (CC) relation; for the Netherlands the dependency on surface dewpoint temperature follows 2 times the CC relation (2CC). The authors’ hypothesis—as supported by a simple physical argument presented here—is that this 2CC behavior arises from the physics of convective clouds. To further investigate this, the large-scale atmospheric conditions accompanying summertime afternoon precipitation events are analyzed using surface observations combined with a regional reanalysis. Events are precipitation measurements clustered in time and space. The hourly peak intensities of these events again reveal a 2CC scaling with the surface dewpoint temperature. The temperature excess of moist updrafts initialized at the surface and the maximum cloud depth are clear functions of surface dewpoint, confirming the key role of surface humidity on convective activity. Almost no differences in relative humidity and the dry temperature lapse rate were found across the dewpoint temperature range, supporting the theory that 2CC scaling is mainly due to the response of convection to increases in near-surface humidity, while other atmospheric conditions remain similar. Additionally, hourly precipitation extremes are on average accompanied by substantial large-scale upward motions and therefore large-scale moisture convergence, which appears to accelerate with surface dewpoint. Consequently, most hourly extremes occur in precipitation events with considerable spatial extent. Importantly, this event size appears to increase rapidly at the highest dewpoint temperature range, suggesting potentially strong impacts of climatic warming.

Previously observed twice-Clausius-Clapeyron (2CC) scaling for extreme precipitation at hourly time scales has led to discussions about its origin. The robustness of this scaling is assessed by analyzing a subhourly dataset of 10-min resolution over the Netherlands. The results confirm the validity of the previously found 2CC scaling for extreme convective precipitation.Using a simple entraining plume model, an idealized deep convective environmental temperature profile is perturbed to analyze extreme precipitation scaling from a frequently used relation based on the column condensation rate. The plume model simulates a steady precipitation increase that is greater than ClausiusClapeyron scaling (super-CC scaling). Precipitation intensity increase is shown to be controlled by a flux of moisture through the cloud base and in-cloud lateral moisture convergence. Decomposition of this scaling relation into a dominant thermodynamic and additional dynamic component allows for better understanding of the scaling and demonstrates the importance of vertical velocity in both dynamic and thermodynamic scaling. Furthermore, systematically increasing the environmental stability by adjusting the temperature perturbations from constant to moist adiabatic increase reveals a dependence of the scaling on the change in environmental stability. As the perturbations become increasingly close to moist adiabatic, the scaling found by the entraining plume model decreases to CC scaling. Thus, atmospheric stability changes, which are expected to be dependent on the latitude, may well play a key role in the behavior of precipitation extremes in the future climate.

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