Background The impact of precision psychiatry for clinical practice has not been systematically appraised. This study aims to provide a comprehensive review of validated prediction models to estimate the individual risk of being affected with a condition (diagnostic), developing outcomes (prognostic), or responding to treatments (predictive) in mental disorders. Methods PRISMA/RIGHT/CHARMS-compliant systematic review of the Web of Science, Cochrane Central Register of Reviews, and Ovid/PsycINFO databases from inception until July 21, 2019 (PROSPERO CRD42019155713) to identify diagnostic/prognostic/predictive prediction studies that reported individualized estimates in psychiatry and that were internally or externally validated or implemented. Random effect meta-regression analyses addressed the impact of several factors on the accuracy of prediction models. Findings Literature search identified 584 prediction modeling studies, of which 89 were included. 10.4% of the total studies included prediction models internally validated (n = 61), 4.6% models externally validated (n = 27), and 0.2% (n = 1) models considered for implementation. Across validated prediction modeling studies (n = 88), 18.2% were diagnostic, 68.2% prognostic, and 13.6% predictive. The most frequently investigated condition was psychosis (36.4%), and the most frequently employed predictors clinical (69.5%). Unimodal compared to multimodal models (β = .29, P = .03) and diagnostic compared to prognostic (β = .84, p < .0001) and predictive (β = .87, P = .002) models were associated with increased accuracy. Interpretation To date, several validated prediction models are available to support the diagnosis and prognosis of psychiatric conditions, in particular, psychosis, or to predict treatment response. Advancements of knowledge are limited by the lack of implementation research in real-world clinical practice. A new generation of implementation research is required to address this translational gap.

ObjectivesThe recent COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted mental healthcare delivery, with many services shifting from in-person to remote patient contact. We investigated the impact of the pandemic on the use of remote consultation and on the prescribing of psychiatric medications.Design and settingThe Clinical Record Interactive Search tool was used to examine deidentified electronic health records of people receiving mental healthcare from the South London and Maudsley (SLaM) NHS Foundation Trust. Data from the period before and after the onset of the pandemic were analysed using linear regression, and visualised using locally estimated scatterplot smoothing.ParticipantsAll patients receiving care from SLaM between 7 January 2019 and 20 September 2020 (around 37 500 patients per week).Outcome measures(i) The number of clinical contacts (in-person, remote or non-attended) with mental healthcare professionals per week.(ii) Prescribing of antipsychotic and mood stabiliser medications per week.ResultsFollowing the onset of the pandemic, the frequency of in-person contacts was significantly reduced compared with that in the previous year (β coefficient: −5829.6 contacts, 95% CI −6919.5 to −4739.6, p<0.001), while the frequency of remote contacts significantly increased (β coefficient: 3338.5 contacts, 95% CI 3074.4 to 3602.7, p<0.001). Rates of remote consultation were lower in older adults than in working age adults, children and adolescents. Despite this change in the type of patient contact, antipsychotic and mood stabiliser prescribing remained at similar levels.ConclusionsThe COVID-19 pandemic has been associated with a marked increase in remote consultation, particularly among younger patients. However, there was no evidence that this has led to changes in psychiatric prescribing. Nevertheless, further work is needed to ensure that older patients are able to access mental healthcare remotely.

Background Using novel data mining methods such as natural language processing (NLP) on electronic health records (EHRs) for screening and detecting individuals at risk for psychosis. Method The study included all patients receiving a first index diagnosis of nonorganic and nonpsychotic mental disorder within the South London and Maudsley (SLaM) NHS Foundation Trust between January 1, 2008, and July 28, 2018. Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO)-regularized Cox regression was used to refine and externally validate a refined version of a five-item individualized, transdiagnostic, clinically based risk calculator previously developed (Harrell’s C = 0.79) and piloted for implementation. The refined version included 14 additional NLP-predictors: tearfulness, poor appetite, weight loss, insomnia, cannabis, cocaine, guilt, irritability, delusions, hopelessness, disturbed sleep, poor insight, agitation, and paranoia. Results A total of 92 151 patients with a first index diagnosis of nonorganic and nonpsychotic mental disorder within the SLaM Trust were included in the derivation (n = 28 297) or external validation (n = 54 716) data sets. Mean age was 33.6 years, 50.7% were women, and 67.0% were of white race/ethnicity. Mean follow-up was 1590 days. The overall 6-year risk of psychosis in secondary mental health care was 3.4 (95% CI, 3.3–3.6). External validation indicated strong performance on unseen data (Harrell’s C 0.85, 95% CI 0.84–0.86), an increase of 0.06 from the original model. Conclusions Using NLP on EHRs can considerably enhance the prognostic accuracy of psychosis risk calculators. This can help identify patients at risk of psychosis who require assessment and specialized care, facilitating earlier detection and potentially improving patient outcomes.

ObjectiveTo determine whether gender differences in symptom presentation at first episode psychosis (FEP) remain even when controlling for substance use, age and ethnicity, using natural language processing applied to electronic health records (EHRs).Design, setting and participantsData were extracted from EHRs of 3350 people (62% male patients) who had presented to the South London and Maudsley NHS Trust with a FEP between 1 April 2007 and 31 March 2017. Logistic regression was used to examine gender differences in the presentation of positive, negative, depressive, mania and disorganisation symptoms.Exposure(s) (for observational studies)Gender (male vs female).Main outcome(s) and measure(s)Presence of positive, negative, depressive, mania and disorganisation symptoms at initial clinical presentation.ResultsEight symptoms were significantly more prevalent in men (poverty of thought, negative symptoms, social withdrawal, poverty of speech, aggression, grandiosity, paranoia and agitation). Conversely, tearfulness, low energy, reduced appetite, low mood, pressured speech, mood instability, flight of ideas, guilt, mutism, insomnia, poor concentration, tangentiality and elation were more prevalent in women than men. Negative symptoms were more common among men (OR 1.85, 95% CI 1.33 to 2.62) and depressive and manic symptoms more common among women (OR 0.30, 95% CI 0.26 to 0.35). After adjustment for illicit substance use, the strength of associations between gender and negative, manic and depression symptoms increased, whereas gender differences in aggression, agitation, paranoia and grandiosity became insignificant.ConclusionsThere are clear gender differences in the clinical presentation of FEP. Our findings suggest that gender can have a substantial influence on the nature of clinical presentation in people with psychosis, and that this is only partly explained by exposure to illicit substance use.

ObjectivesOnline health forums provide rich and untapped real-time data on population health. Through novel data extraction and natural language processing (NLP) techniques, we characterise the evolution of mental and physical health concerns relating to the COVID-19 pandemic among online health forum users.Setting and designWe obtained data from three leading online health forums: HealthBoards, Inspire and HealthUnlocked, from the period 1 January 2020 to 31 May 2020. Using NLP, we analysed the content of posts related to COVID-19.Primary outcome measures(1) Proportion of forum posts containing COVID-19 keywords; (2) proportion of forum users making their very first post about COVID-19; (3) proportion of COVID-19-related posts containing content related to physical and mental health comorbidities.ResultsData from 739 434 posts created by 53 134 unique users were analysed. A total of 35 581 posts (4.8%) contained a COVID-19 keyword. Posts discussing COVID-19 and related comorbid disorders spiked in early March to mid-March around the time of global implementation of lockdowns prompting a large number of users to post on online health forums for the first time. Over a quarter of COVID-19-related thread titles mentioned a physical or mental health comorbidity.ConclusionsWe demonstrate that it is feasible to characterise the content of online health forum user posts regarding COVID-19 and measure changes over time. The pandemic and corresponding public response has had a significant impact on posters’ queries regarding mental health. Social media data sources such as online health forums can be harnessed to strengthen population-level mental health surveillance.

The real-world impact of psychosis prevention is reliant on effective strategies for identifying individuals at risk. A transdiagnostic, individualized, clinically-based risk calculator to improve this has been developed and externally validated twice in two different UK healthcare trusts with convincing results. The prognostic performance of this risk calculator outside the UK is unknown. All individuals who accessed primary or secondary health care services belonging to the IBM® MarketScan® Commercial Database between January 2015 and December 2017, and received a first ICD-10 index diagnosis of nonorganic/nonpsychotic mental disorder, were included. According to the risk calculator, age, gender, ethnicity, age-by-gender, and ICD-10 cluster diagnosis at index date were used to predict development of any ICD-10 nonorganic psychotic disorder. Because patient-level ethnicity data were not available city-level ethnicity proportions were used as proxy. The study included 2,430,333 patients with a mean follow-up of 15.36 months and cumulative incidence of psychosis at two years of 1.43%. There were profound differences compared to the original development UK database in terms of case-mix, psychosis incidence, distribution of baseline predictors (ICD-10 cluster diagnoses), availability of patient-level ethnicity data, follow-up time and availability of specialized clinical services for at-risk individuals. Despite these important differences, the model retained accuracy significantly above chance (Harrell’s C = 0.676, 95% CI: 0.672–0.679). To date, this is the largest international external replication of an individualized prognostic model in the field of psychiatry. This risk calculator is transportable on an international scale to improve the automatic detection of individuals at risk of psychosis.

ObjectivesTo examine whether depressive symptoms predict receipt of cognitive–behavioural therapy for psychosis (CBTp) in individuals with psychosis.DesignRetrospective cross-sectional analysis of electronic health records (EHRs) of a clinical cohort.SettingA secondary National Health Service mental healthcare service serving four boroughs of south London, UK.Participants20 078 patients diagnosed with an International Classification of Diseases, version 10 (ICD-10) code between F20 and 29 extracted from an EHR database.Primary and secondary outcome measuresPrimary: Whether recorded depressive symptoms predicted CBTp session receipt, defined as at least one session of CBTp identified from structured EHR fields supplemented by a natural language processing algorithm. Secondary: Whether age, gender, ethnicity, symptom profiles (positive, negative, manic and disorganisation symptoms), a comorbid diagnosis of depression, anxiety or bipolar disorder, general CBT receipt prior to the primary psychosis diagnosis date or type of psychosis diagnosis predicted CBTp receipt.ResultsOf patients with a psychotic disorder, only 8.2% received CBTp. Individuals with at least one depressive symptom recorded, depression symptom severity and 12 out of 15 of the individual depressive symptoms independently predicted CBTp receipt. Female gender, White ethnicity and presence of a comorbid affective disorder or primary schizoaffective diagnosis were independently positively associated with CBTp receipt within the whole sample and the top 25% of mentioned depressive symptoms.ConclusionsIndividuals with a psychotic disorder who had recorded depressive symptoms were significantly more likely to receive CBTp sessions, aligning with CBTp guidelines of managing depressive symptoms related to a psychotic experience. However, overall receipt of CBTp is low and more common in certain demographic groups, and needs to be increased.

Objectives: Online health forums provide rich and untapped real-time data on population health. Through novel data extraction and natural language processing (NLP) techniques, we characterise the evolution of mental and physical health concerns relating to the COVID-19 pandemic among online health forum users. Setting and design: We obtained data from 739,434 posts by 53,134 unique users of three leading online health forums: HealthBoards, Inspire and HealthUnlocked, from the period 1st January 2020 to 31st May 2020. Using NLP, we analysed the content of posts related to COVID-19. Primary outcome measures: (i) Proportion of forum posts containing COVID-19 keywords (ii) Proportion of forum users making their very first post about COVID-19 (iii) Number of COVID-19 related posts containing content related to physical and mental health comorbidities Results: Posts discussing COVID-19 and related comorbid disorders spiked in early- to mid-March around the time of global implementation of lockdowns prompting a large number of users to post on online health forums for the first time. The pandemic and corresponding public response has had a significant impact on posters' queries regarding mental health. Conclusions: We demonstrate it is feasible to characterise the content of online health forum user posts regarding COVID-19 and measure changes over time. Social media data sources such as online health forums can be harnessed to strengthen population-level mental health surveillance.