In the recent 2014–2016 Ebola epidemic in West Africa, non-hospitalized cases were an important component of the chain of transmission. However, non-hospitalized cases are at increased risk of going unreported because of barriers to access to healthcare. Furthermore, underreporting rates may fluctuate over space and time, biasing estimates of disease transmission rates, which are important for understanding spread and planning control measures. We performed a retrospective analysis on community deaths during the recent Ebola epidemic in Sierra Leone to estimate the number of unreported non-hospitalized cases, and to quantify how Ebola reporting rates varied across locations and over time. We then tested if variation in reporting rates affected the estimates of disease transmission rates that were used in surveillance and response. We found significant variation in reporting rates among districts, and district-specific rates of increase in reporting over time. Correcting time series of numbers of cases for variable reporting rates led, in some instances, to different estimates of the time-varying reproduction number of the epidemic, particularly outside the capital. Future analyses that compare Ebola transmission rates over time and across locations may be improved by considering the impacts of differential reporting rates.
Limited studies suggest that with robust program inputs caregivers and CHWs can correctly use mid-upper arm circumference to detect severe acute malnutrition (SAM) and that properly trained and supported CHWs can treat uncomplicated SAM in communities.
BackgroundAssessment of the impact of emergency cash transfer programs on child nutritional status has been difficult to achieve due to the considerable logistic and ethical constraints that characterize humanitarian settings.MethodsWe present the findings from a quasi-experimental longitudinal study of a conditional emergency cash transfer program implemented by Concern Worldwide in 2012 during a food crisis in Tahoua, Niger, in which the use of a concurrent control group permits estimation of the program’s impact on child weight gain. Program beneficiaries received three transfers totaling approximately 65% of Niger’s gross national per capita income; mothers attended mandatory sessions on child and infant feeding and care practices. Dietary and anthropometric data from 211 vulnerable households and children targeted by the intervention were compared with 212 similarly vulnerable control households and children from the same 21 villages. We used multilevel mixed effects regression to estimate changes in weight and weight-for-height Z scores (WHZ) over time, and logistic regression to estimate the probability of acute malnutrition.ResultsWe found the intervention to be associated with a 1.27 kg greater overall weight gain (P < 0.001) and a 1.82 greater overall gain in WHZ (P < 0.001). The odds of having acute malnutrition at the end of the intervention were 25 times higher among children in the comparison group than those in households receiving cash (P < 0.001).ConclusionsWe conclude that this emergency cash transfer program promoted child weight gain and reduced the risk of acute malnutrition among children in the context of a food crisis. We suspect that the use of strategic conditional terms and a valuable transfer size were key features in achieving this result. Limitations in study design prevent us from attributing impact to particular aspects of the program, and preclude a precise estimation of impact. Future studies of this nature would benefit from pre-baseline measurements, more exhaustive data collection on household characteristics and transfer use, and further investigation into the use of conditional terms in emergency settings.
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