Climate change is arguably the greatest challenge to conservation of our time. Most vulnerability assessments rely on past and current species distributions to predict future persistence but ignore species' abilities to disperse through landscapes, which may be particularly important in fragmented habitats and crucial for long-term persistence in changing environments. Landscape genetic approaches explore the interactions between landscape features and gene flow and can clarify how organisms move among suitable habitats, but have suffered from methodological uncertainties. We used a landscape genetic approach to determine how landscape and climate-related features influence gene flow for American pikas (Ochotona princeps) in Crater Lake National Park. Pikas are heat intolerant and restricted to cool microclimates; thus, range contractions have been predicted as climate changes. We evaluated the correlation between landscape variables and genetic distance using partial Mantel tests in a causal modelling framework, and used spatially explicit simulations to evaluate methods of model optimization including a novel approach based on relative support and reciprocal causal modelling. We found that gene flow was primarily restricted by topographic relief, water and west-facing aspects, suggesting that physical restrictions related to small body size and mode of locomotion, as well as exposure to relatively high temperatures, limit pika dispersal in this alpine habitat. Our model optimization successfully identified landscape features influencing resistance in the simulated data for this landscape, but underestimated the magnitude of resistance. This is the first landscape genetic study to address the fundamental question of what limits dispersal and gene flow in the American pika.

Ecological niche theory holds that species distributions are shaped by a large and complex suite of interacting factors. Species distribution models (SDMs) are increasingly used to describe species' niches and predict the effects of future environmental change, including climate change. Currently, SDMs often fail to capture the complexity of species' niches, resulting in predictions that are generally limited to climate-occupancy interactions. Here, we explore the potential impact of climate change on the American pika using a replicated place-based approach that incorporates climate, gene flow, habitat configuration, and microhabitat complexity into SDMs. Using contemporary presence-absence data from occupancy surveys, genetic data to infer connectivity between habitat patches, and 21 environmental niche variables, we built separate SDMs for pika populations inhabiting eight US National Park Service units representing the habitat and climatic breadth of the species across the western United States. We then predicted occurrence probability under current (1981-2010) and three future time periods (out to 2100). Occurrence probabilities and the relative importance of predictor variables varied widely among study areas, revealing important local-scale differences in the realized niche of the American pika. This variation resulted in diverse and - in some cases - highly divergent future potential occupancy patterns for pikas, ranging from complete extirpation in some study areas to stable occupancy patterns in others. Habitat composition and connectivity, which are rarely incorporated in SDM projections, were influential in predicting pika occupancy in all study areas and frequently outranked climate variables. Our findings illustrate the importance of a place-based approach to species distribution modeling that includes fine-scale factors when assessing current and future climate impacts on species' distributions, especially when predictions are intended to manage and conserve species of concern within individual protected areas.

Landscape connectivity is essential for maintaining viable populations, particularly for species restricted to fragmented habitats or naturally arrayed in metapopulations and facing rapid climate change. The importance of assessing both structural connectivity (physical distribution of favorable habitat patches) and functional connectivity (how species move among habitat patches) for managing such species is well understood. However, the degree to which functional connectivity for a species varies among landscapes, and the resulting implications for conservation, have rarely been assessed. We used a landscape genetics approach to evaluate resistance to gene flow and, thus, to determine how landscape and climate-related variables influence gene flow for American pikas (Ochotona princeps) in eight federally managed sites in the western United States. We used empirically derived, individual-based landscape resistance models in conjunction with predictive occupancy models to generate patch-based network models describing functional landscape connectivity. Metareplication across landscapes enabled identification of limiting factors for dispersal that would not otherwise have been apparent. Despite the cool microclimates characteristic of pika habitat, south-facing aspects consistently represented higher resistance to movement, supporting the previous hypothesis that exposure to relatively high temperatures may limit dispersal in American pikas. We found that other barriers to dispersal included areas with a high degree of topographic relief, such as cliffs and ravines, as well as streams and distances greater than 1-4 km depending on the site. Using the empirically derived network models of habitat patch connectivity, we identified habitat patches that were likely disproportionately important for maintaining functional connectivity, areas in which habitat appeared fragmented, and locations that could be targeted for management actions to improve functional connectivity. We concluded that climate change, besides influencing patch occupancy as predicted by other studies, may alter landscape resistance for pikas, thereby influencing functional connectivity through multiple pathways simultaneously. Spatial autocorrelation among genotypes varied across study sites and was largest where habitat was most dispersed, suggesting that dispersal distances increased with habitat fragmentation, up to a point. This study demonstrates how landscape features linked to climate can affect functional connectivity for species with naturally fragmented distributions, and reinforces the importance of replicating studies across landscapes.