ObjectiveEarly warning scores (EWS) are used to predict patient outcomes. We aimed to determine which of 13 EWS, based largely on emergency department (ED) vital sign data, best predict important clinical outcomes.MethodWe undertook a prospective cohort study in a metropolitan, tertiary-referral ED in Melbourne, Australia (February–April 2018). Patient demographics, vital signs and management data were collected while the patients were in the ED and EWS were calculated using each EWS criteria. Outcome data were extracted from the medical record (2-day, 7-day and 28-day inhospital mortality, clinical deterioration within 2 days, intensive care unit (ICU) admission within 2 days, admission to hospital). Area under the receiver operator characteristic (AUROC; 95% CIs) curves were used to evaluate the predictive ability of each EWS for each outcome.ResultsOf 1730 patients enrolled, 690 patients were admitted to the study hospital. Most EWS were good or excellent predictors of 2-day mortality. When considering the point estimates, the VitalPac EWS was the most strongly predictive (AUROC: 0.96; 95% CI: 0.92 to 0.99). However, when considering the 95% CIs, there was no significant difference between the highest performing EWS. The predictive ability for 7-day and 28-day mortality was generally less. No EWS was a good predictor for clinical deterioration (AUROC range: 0.54–0.70), ICU admission (range: 0.51–0.72) or admission to hospital (range: 0.51–0.68).ConclusionSeveral EWS have excellent predictive ability for 2-day mortality and have the potential to risk stratify patients in ED. No EWS adequately predicted clinical deterioration, admission to either ICU or the hospital.

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Since its global emergence in 2020, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has caused multiple epidemics in the United States. Because medical treatments for the virus are still emerging and a vaccine is not yet available, state and local governments have sought to limit its spread by enacting various social distancing interventions such as school closures and lockdown, but the effectiveness of these interventions is unknown. We applied an established, semi-mechanistic Bayesian hierarchical model of these interventions on SARS-CoV-2 spread in Europe to the United States, using case fatalities from February 29, 2020 up to April 25, 2020, when some states began reversing their interventions. We estimated the effect of interventions across all states, contrasted the estimated reproduction number, Rt, for each state before and after lockdown, and contrasted predicted future fatalities with actual fatalities as a check on the model’s validity. Overall, school closures and lockdown are the only interventions modeled that have a reliable impact on Rt, and lockdown appears to have played a key role in reducing Rt below 1.0. We conclude that reversal of lockdown, without implementation of additional, equally effective interventions, will enable continued, sustained transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in the United States.

Co-production affords an intervention’s target population the opportunity to participate in intervention theory decision-making during the development process. This addresses the over-reliance on developing interventions through academic theories which can be devoid of contextual understanding and result in challenges to implementing school-based health programmes. There is an emergent empirical literature on co-producing school-based health interventions, but an understanding of appropriate theoretical types and processes and stakeholders’ experiences is lacking. Through the conduct of a systematic review, this study seeks to understand the types and underlying theories and processes for co-production in school-based health interventions with students aged 11–16. A thematic synthesis explored stakeholders’ experiences of the different types of co-production. A systematic search of five electronic bibliographic databases, citation tracking of included studies, and consultation with an expert international panel were employed. Of 27,433 unique papers, 30 papers representing 22 studies were retained to describe types, and 23 papers of 18 studies used to synthesise stakeholders’ experiences. Three types were identified: external, individual-level, and system-level capacity-building. Whilst this review showed variability in co-production types, stakeholders involved and processes, shared functions were identified. Students’, school staff, facilitators’ and researchers’ experiences in terms of acceptability, feasibility and undertaking decision-making are discussed. Recommendations for conceptualising and reporting co-production and process evaluations of co-produced school-based health interventions are highlighted.

To support the global restart of elective surgery, data from an international prospective cohort study of 8492 patients (69 countries) was analysed using artificial intelligence (machine learning techniques) to develop a predictive score for mortality in surgical patients with SARS-CoV-2. We found that patient rather than operation factors were the best predictors and used these to create the COVIDsurg Mortality Score (https://covidsurgrisk.app). Our data demonstrates that it is safe to restart a wide range of surgical services for selected patients.

Objective To determine how frequently calcium (Ca), magnesium (Mg) and phosphate (PO4) tests change ED patient management. Methods We undertook a retrospective observational study in an Australian tertiary referral ED. We enrolled adult patients (aged ≥18 years) who presented between 1 January and 30 June 2017 and who had a serum Ca, Mg or PO4 test ordered and completed during their ED stay. Patient symptoms, medical history, electrolyte levels and ED management changes were extracted from the electronic medical record. Results Of the 33 120 adults presented during the study period, 1716 (5.2%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 5.0–5.4) had at least one Ca, Mg or PO4 test completed in the ED. This included 4776 individual electrolyte tests, of which 776 (16.2%, 95% CI 15.2–17.3) were abnormal. Fifty‐six (7.2% [95% CI 5.5–9.3] of patients with abnormal tests, 1.2% [95% CI 0.9–1.5] of all tests) tests were associated with a change in ED management. Twenty‐six out of 1683 (1.5%) Ca levels were low with six (23.1%) management changes; 203 (12.1%) were high with 10 (4.9%) management changes. One hundred and twenty‐eight out of 1579 (8.1%) Mg levels were low with 33 (25.8%) management changes; 30 (1.9%) were high with no management changes. Two hundred and twenty‐five out of 1514 (14.9%) PO4 levels were low with six (2.7%) management changes; 164 (10.8%) were high with one (0.6%) management change. Fifty (2.9%) patients had management changes despite normal electrolyte levels. Conclusion Ca, Mg and PO4 testing is common. However, the yield of clinically significant abnormal levels is low and patient management is rarely changed. Testing of these electrolytes needs to be rationalised.

Since its global emergence in 2020, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has caused multiple epidemics in the United States. Because medical treatments for the virus are still emerging and a vaccine is not yet available, state and local governments have sought to limit its spread by enacting various social distancing interventions such as school closures and lockdown, but the effectiveness of these interventions is unknown. We applied an established, semi-mechanistic Bayesian hierarchical model of these interventions on SARS-CoV-2 spread in Europe to the United States. We estimated the effect of interventions across all states, contrasted the estimated reproduction number, Rt , for each state before and after lockdown, and contrasted predicted future fatalities with actual fatalities as a check on the model's validity. Overall, school closures and lockdown are the only interventions modeled that have a reliable impact on Rt , and lockdown appears to have played a key role in reducing Rt below 1.0. We conclude that reversal of lockdown, without implementation of additional, equally effective interventions, will enable continued, sustained transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in the United States.

Highlights Parabrachial complex (PB) neurons respond reliably to dura stimulation. Trigeminal ganglion (TG) neurons project directly to PB. TG neurons project to both dura and PB, demonstrating a direct connection.