The cost and difficulty of manipulative field studies makes low statistical power a pervasive issue throughout most ecological subdisciplines. Ecologists are already aware that small sample sizes increase the probability of committing Type II errors. In this article, we address a relatively unknown problem with low power: underpowered studies must overestimate small effect sizes in order to achieve statistical significance. First, we describe how low replication coupled with weak effect sizes leads to Type M errors, or exaggerated effect sizes. We then conduct a meta-analysis to determine the average statistical power and Type M error rate for manipulative field experiments that address important questions related to global change; global warming, biodiversity loss, and drought. Finally, we provide recommendations for avoiding Type M errors and constraining estimates of effect size from underpowered studies.

During the 1930s Dust Bowl drought in the central United States, species with the C3 photosynthetic pathway expanded throughout C4-dominated grasslands. This widespread increase in C3 grasses during a decade of low rainfall and high temperatures is inconsistent with well-known traits of C3 vs. C4 pathways. Indeed, water use efficiency is generally lower, and photosynthesis is more sensitive to high temperatures in C3 than C4 species, consistent with the predominant distribution of C3 grasslands in cooler environments and at higher latitudes globally. We experimentally imposed extreme drought for 4 y in mixed C3/C4 grasslands in Kansas and Wyoming and, similar to Dust Bowl observations, also documented three- to fivefold increases in C3/C4 biomass ratios. To explain these paradoxical responses, we first analyzed long-term climate records to show that under nominal conditions in the central United States, C4 grasses dominate where precipitation and air temperature are strongly related (warmest months are wettest months). In contrast, C3 grasses flourish where precipitation inputs are less strongly coupled to warm temperatures. We then show that during extreme drought years, precipitation–temperature relationships weaken, and the proportion of precipitation falling during cooler months increases. This shift in precipitation seasonality provides a mechanism for C3 grasses to respond positively to multiyear drought, resolving the Dust Bowl paradox. Grasslands are globally important biomes and increasingly vulnerable to direct effects of climate extremes. Our findings highlight how extreme drought can indirectly alter precipitation seasonality and shift ecosystem phenology, affecting function in ways not predictable from key traits of C3 and C4 species.

Experiments are widely used in ecology, particularly for assessing global change impacts on ecosystem function. However, results from experiments often are inconsistent with observations made under natural conditions, suggesting the need for rigorous comparisons of experimental and observational studies. We conducted such a "reality check" for a grassland ecosystem by compiling results from nine independently conducted climate change experiments. Each experiment manipulated growing season precipitation (GSP) and measured responses in aboveground net primary production (ANPP). We compared results from experiments with long-term (33-yr) annual precipitation and ANPP records to ask if collectively (n = 44 experiment-years) experiments yielded estimates of ANPP, rain-use efficiency (RUE, grams per square meter ANPP per mm precipitation), and the relationship between GSP and ANPP comparable to observations. We found that mean ANPP and RUE from experiments did not deviate from observations. Experiments and observational data also yielded similar functional relationships between ANPP and GSP, but only within the range of historically observed GSP. Fewer experiments imposed extreme levels of GSP (outside the observed 33-yr record), but when these were included, they altered the GSP-ANPP relationship. This result underscores the need for more experiments imposing extreme precipitation levels to resolve how forecast changes in climate regimes will affect ecosystem function in the future.

1. Random species loss has been shown experimentally to reduce ecosystem function, sometimes more than other anthropogenic environmental changes. Yet, controversy surrounds the importance of this finding for natural systems where species loss is non-random.2. We compiled data from 16 multi-year experiments located at a single native tallgrass prairie site. These experiments included responses to 11 anthropogenic environmental changes, as well as non-random biodiversity loss either the removal of uncommon/rare plant species or the most common (dominant) species.3. As predicted by the mass ratio hypothesis, loss of a dominant species had large impacts on productivity that were comparable to other anthropogenic drivers. In contrast, the loss of uncommon/rare species had small effects on productivity despite having the largest effects on species richness. 4. The anthropogenic drivers that had the largest effects on productivity nitrogen, irrigation, and fire experienced not only loss of species but also significant changes in the abundance and identity of dominant species. 5. Synthesis. These results suggest that mass ratio effects, rather than species loss per se, are an important determinant of ecosystem function with environmental change. K E Y W O R D S anthropogenic change, biodiversity, climate change, dominant species, ecosystem function and services, global change ecology, mass ratio hypothesis, non-random species loss 856 | Journal of Ecology SMITH eT al.

A foundational goal of trait-based ecology, including trait-based restoration, is to link specific traits to community assembly, biodiversity, and ecosystem function. Despite a growing awareness of the importance of belowground traits for ecological processes, a synthesis of how root traits can inform restoration of terrestrial plant communities is lacking. We reviewed and summarized existing literature focused on root traits in relation to plant performance measures (i.e. survival, establishment, productivity) in the contexts of drought and competition (including invasion). Root traits related to belowground resource acquisition (e.g. high specific root length, deep roots) are frequently related to drought avoidance (i.e. a plant strategy based on optimizing water uptake to maintain function), whereas studies relating root traits to drought tolerance (i.e. a plant strategy that allows plants to withstand low hydration) remain limited. More studies have linked root traits to plant competitive effects (i.e. the influence a plant has on neighbors) than to competitive responses (i.e. a plant's ability to resist the effects of neighbors). Because plants with acquisitive traits decrease resources to the detriment of neighbors, root traits associated with rapid resource acquisition (e.g. high specific root length) may be important for understanding competitive effects. Albeit more limited, research suggests root traits associated with resource conservation or stress tolerance (e.g. high root tissue density, high root diameter) may elucidate mechanisms related to competitive responses. Re-vegetation outcomes may be improved by considering root traits, but only if clear links are made between traits and plant performance in varied contexts.