Species responses to climate change will be primarily driven by their environmental tolerance range, or niche breadth, with the expectation that broad niches will increase resilience. Niche breadth is expected to be larger in more heterogeneous environments and moderated by life history. Niche breadth also varies across life stages. Therefore, the life stage with the narrowest niche may serve as the best predictor of climatic vulnerability. To investigate the relationship between niche breadth, climate and life stage we identify germination niche breadth for dormant and non-dormant seeds in multiple populations of three milkweed (Asclepias) species. Complementary trials evaluated germination under conditions simulating historic and predicted future climate by varying cold-moist stratification temperature, length and incubation temperature. Germination niche breadth was derived from germination evenness across treatments (Levins B ), with stratified seeds considered less dormant than non-stratified seeds. Germination response varies significantly among species, populations and treatments. Cold-moist stratification ≥4 weeks (1-3 °C) followed by incubation at 25/15 °C+ achieves peak germination for most populations. Germination niche breadth significantly expands following stratification and interacts significantly with latitude of origin. Interestingly, two species display a positive relationship between niche breadth and latitude, while the third presents a concave quadratic relationship. Germination niche breadth significantly varies by species, latitude and population, suggesting an interaction between source climate, life history and site-specific factors. Results contribute to our understanding of inter- and intraspecific variation in germination, underscore the role of dormancy in germination niche breadth, and have implications for prioritising and conserving species under climate change.
If sufficient seedling establishment can be achieved, seed‐based restoration provides an affordable, active restoration approach that can be implemented quickly at scale. However, establishment has served as a major restoration bottleneck, highlighting the need for improved understanding of seed germination niche and interactions with site conditions. Germination niche breadth (NB) is expected to increase with gene flow, resulting in broader environmental tolerance range, reduced sensitivity to site conditions, and less variation among seed sources. To investigate how germination NB relates to inter‐ and intraspecific variation in establishment from seed, we compared field recruitment for two milkweeds (Asclepias), the larval host plant of the monarch butterfly and thus a high priority group for habitat creation. Consistent with species‐level NB derived from laboratory trials, there was strong evidence that early life stages of the habitat specialist (Asclepias incarnata) varied among seed collection regions (separated by 423–572 km) but no evidence that the generalist (A. syriaca) varied among seed sources collected across an approximately 750‐km transect. Regeneration trends demonstrate that A. incarnata is significantly more sensitive to seed source and therefore requires more restricted seed zones. However, climate change may necessitate that we separate seed collection zones from seed application zones, upending the traditional framework of seed transfer zones. Until taxon‐specific studies have identified the scale of adaptive, phenotypic variance, restoration practitioners should continue to adjust the scale of seed collection zones for milkweeds and other taxa based on species traits known to influence gene flow, such as abundance and habitat specificity.
Climate change continues to alter the seasonal timing and extremes of global temperature and precipitation patterns. These departures from historic conditions along with the predicted variability of future climates present a challenge to seed sourcing, or provenance strategy decisions, within the practice of ecological restoration. The “local is best” for seed sourcing paradigm is predicated upon the assumption that ecotypes are genetically adapted to their local environment. However, local adaptations are potentially being outpaced by climate change, and the ability of plant populations to naturally migrate or shift their distribution accordingly may be limited by habitat fragmentation. Restoration practitioners and natural area managers have a general understanding of the importance of matching the inherent adaptations of source populations with the current and/or future site conditions where those seeds or propagules are planted. However, for many species used in seed-based restoration, there is a lack of empirical evidence to guide seed sourcing decisions, which are critical for the longevity and ecological function of restored natural communities. With the goal of characterizing, synthesizing, and applying experimental research to guide restoration practice, we conducted a systematic review of the literature on provenance testing of taxa undertaken to inform seed sourcing strategies for climate resiliency. We found a strong bias in the choice of study organism: most studies have been conducted on tree species. We also found a strong bias regarding where this research has been conducted, with North America (52%) and Europe (31%) overrepresented. Experiments were designed to assess how propagule origin influences performance across both climatic (26%) and geographic (15%) distance, with some studies focused on determining how climate normal conditions (39%) impacted performance related to survivorship, growth and other parameters. We describe the patterns and gaps our review identified, highlight specific topics which require further research, and provide practical suggestions of immediate and longer-term tools that restoration practitioners can use to guide and build resilient natural communities under future climate scenarios.
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