This paper reviews the literature on investor reaction and sentiment with respect to public information arrival in emerging markets and discusses the implications of the findings for the validity of theoretical models emphasizing public information arrival as the main mover of asset prices. We cover three types of public information news: monetary policy announcements, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) related news and other public and political news. In addition, we review the literature on sentiment and institutional trading in emerging markets. We summarize general findings and suggest some directions for further research.
We analyze the impact of monetary policy communication of the National Bank of Poland (NBP), i.e. the NBP announcements of interest rates changes and the release of new macroeconomic figures, on the Polish financial market in its two main segments: the foreign exchange market and the stock market, and we provide evidence on how they react to public information from the NBP. In particular, we are interested in the uncertainty (i.e. risk) effects and the wealth (i.e. return) effects of the NBP communication, i.e. whether the NBP announcements had any influence on stock and foreign exchange returns and on the activity of those two markets. Using GARCH methodology, we document the negative effects in the conditional variance of GARCH class models of WIG index volume of trade and WIG returns as well as PLN/USD bid-ask spread and PLN/USD returns, which suggests the existence of the calming effects of the NBP communication with financial markets on their price volatility and on the changes of their activity. The evidence presented in our study indicates that the NBP announcements had stabilizing effects on the stock and foreign exchange markets in Poland.
<p><strong>Theoretical background</strong>: The capital structure is one of the most important areas in the modern theory of corporate finance. It has inspired the development of a large number of theoretical approaches, but a universally accepted theory of capital structure has not yet been developed. A common belief holds that companies try to achieve a stable capital structure in the long term; thus, companies that, at a given time, are characterised by a relatively low (or high) level of debt, also probably had the same level in previous periods.</p><p><strong>Purpose of the article</strong>: The main purpose of this paper is to provide answers to two basic questions: 1) How did the aggregate capital structure of the non-financial companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange (WSE) change from 1997 to 2017?; 2) What factors are decisive for the companies’ capital structure and do the current trends in capital structure theory take account of them?</p><p><strong>Research methods</strong>: The research is carried out in two phases. In phase 1, the descriptive statistics method is applied to analyse how the capital structure of WSE-listed companies changed in the years 1997<em>–</em>2017. In phase 2, the capital structure determinants are examined using multiple regression models.</p><p><strong>Main findings</strong>: The capital structure of WSE companies varied significantly in the sample years, and overall, the debt ratios, total, short-, and long-term debt slightly increased. The causes of the changes were the economic environment factors (banking sector assets, government debt, and corporate income tax) and macroeconomic circumstances, along with the companies’ characteristics. Among the latter, the company’s profitability and the share of fixed assets in total assets usually turned out to be statistically significant.</p>
This paper presents results of the investigation of a phenomenon known as "earnings management'' (EM) among the companies listed on the Polish stock market. The distribution of earnings per share (EPS) for the stocks around the threshold value of "zero" and the threshold of "recent performance" was analyzed in the period of years 1997-2010. Moreover, the changes of earnings for the stocks, which are suspected to manipulate their earnings, were also investigated. The results, which indicate asymmetric distribution of earnings around the zero threshold along with the relative deterioration of earnings in the year following the period when the companies were suspected to conduct earnings management practices, provide evidence that this phenomenon exists among Polish stock market companies.
This paper discusses the links between economic growth, corporate earnings and stock returns. Cross-country correlation studies do not confirm the intuitive assumption that higher returns on equities are more likely in the fastergrowing countries. The problem can be analysed more deeply by analysing stock returns with respect to the growth of earnings per share (EPS) and changes in valuation (P/E ratio). Within this framework, two types of factors explaining the lack of correlation between GDP growth and stock returns are distinguished. The empirical research on developed and emerging market countries reveals that in the long run stock price returns are driven by companies’ earnings, and that the lack of correlation between GDP growth and equity returns is almost fully explained by the divergence between GDP growth and EPS growth. In this article the results of an investigation into this area, based on a sample of post-communist Central and Eastern European countries, are presented and discussed. It was found that in these countries changes in valuation (P/E ratio) appear to play an important role, cancelling the impact of EPS growth on stock returns.
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