The population of American black bears (Ursus americanus) in southern New York, USA has been growing and expanding in range since the 1990s. This has motivated a need to anticipate future patterns of range expansion. We conducted a non-invasive, genetic, spatial capture-recapture (SCR) study to estimate black bear density and identify spatial patterns of population density that are potentially associated with range expansion. We collected hair samples in a 2,519-km 2 study area in southern New York with barbed-wire hair snares and identified individuals and measured genetic diversity using 7 microsatellite loci and 1 sex-linked marker. We estimated a mean density of black bears in the region of 13.7 bears/100 km 2 , and detected a slight latitudinal gradient in density consistent with the documented range expansion. However, elevation and the amounts of forest, crop, and developed landcover types did not influence density, suggesting that bears are using a diversity of resources in this heterogeneous landscape outside their previously described distribution. These results provide the first robust baseline estimates for population density and distribution associated with different landcover types in the expanded bear range. Further, genetic diversity was comparable to that of non-expanding black bear populations in the eastern United States, and in combination with the latitudinal density gradient, suggest that the study area is not at the colonizing front of the range expansion. In addition, the diversity of landcover types used by bears in the study area implies a possible lack of constraints for further northern expansion of the black bear range. Our non-invasive, genetic, spatial capturerecapture approach has utility for studying populations of other species that may be expanding in range because SCR allows for the testing of explicit, spatial ecological hypotheses. Ó 2017 The Wildlife Society.

Many studies have documented that coyotes (Canis latrans) are the greatest source of natural mortality for white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) neonates (<3 months old). With the range expansion of coyotes eastward in North America, many stakeholders are concerned that coyote predation may be affecting deer populations adversely. We hypothesized that declines in neonate survival, perhaps caused by increasing coyote predation, could be offset by adjusting or eliminating antlerless harvest allocations. We used a stochastic, age-based population simulation model to evaluate combinations of low neonate survival rates, severe winters, and low adult deer survival rates to determine the effectiveness of reduced antlerless harvest at stabilizing deer populations. We found that even in regions with high winter mortality, reduced antlerless harvest rates could stabilize deer populations with recruitment and survival rates reported in the literature. When neonate survival rates were low (25%) and yearling and adult female survival rates were reduced by 10%, elimination of antlerless harvests failed to stabilize populations. Our results suggest increased deer mortality from coyotes can be addressed through reduced hunting harvest of adult female deer in most circumstances throughout eastern North America. However, specific knowledge of adult female survival rates is important for making management decisions in areas where both neonate and adult survival may be affected by predation and other mortality factors. Ó 2014 The Wildlife Society.

Abstract. Fish and wildlife harvest management at large spatial scales often involves making complex decisions with multiple objectives and difficult tradeoffs, population demographics that vary spatially, competing stakeholder values, and uncertainties that might affect management decisions. Structured decision making (SDM) provides a formal decision analytic framework for evaluating difficult decisions by breaking decisions into component parts and separating the values of stakeholders from the scientific evaluation of management actions and uncertainty. The result is a rigorous, transparent, and values-driven process. This decision-aiding process provides the decision maker with a more complete understanding of the problem and the effects of potential management actions on stakeholder values, as well as how key uncertainties can affect the decision. We use a case study to illustrate how SDM can be used as a decisionaiding tool for management decision making at large scales. We evaluated alternative white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) buck-harvest regulations in New York designed to reduce harvest of yearling bucks, taking into consideration the values of the state wildlife agency responsible for managing deer, as well as deer hunters. We incorporated tradeoffs about social, ecological, and economic management concerns throughout the state. Based on the outcomes of predictive models, expert elicitation, and hunter surveys, the SDM process identified management alternatives that optimized competing objectives. The SDM process provided biologists and managers insight about aspects of the buck-harvest decision that helped them adopt a management strategy most compatible with diverse hunter values and management concerns.

In the Adirondack region of northern New York, USA, severe weather and deep snow typically force white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) to congregate in areas of dense coniferous cover and along watercourses at lower elevations. We examined 16 yards in the Adirondacks and explored the observation that deer have changed their movement behavior to incorporate residential communities within their wintering areas. We compared locations of deer herds in 2003 and 2004 to deer wintering areas mapped during the 1960s and 1970s. Deer were predominantly absent in 9 of 16 historical yards but were present in residential communities within the same drainage. Yarding areas to which deer shifted contained more residential, deciduous, and mixed cover than yards where no shift occurred, indicating that deer in residential areas were using conifer and mixed cover at a finer scale than deer in nonresidential areas. Smaller winter ranges and core areas of marked deer in a residential winter yard further imply greater concentration of resources available in these areas. Marked deer demonstrated flexibility in core winter range fidelity, a behavior that allows for more permanent shifts as habitat and food resources change or as new areas with appropriate resources are encountered. Our study suggests that low-density residential areas in lowland conifer forests may provide an energetic advantage for deer during winter due to the assemblage of quality habitat interspersed with open areas and a variety of potential food sources in environments where movement is typically constrained by deep snow. Managers should consider the potential for changes in use of deer wintering areas prior to land conservation efforts and may need to adapt management strategies to reduce conflicts in communities occupied by deer during winter.