Predicting evolutionary change poses numerous challenges. Here we take advantage of the model bacterium Pseudomonas fluorescens in which the genotype-to-phenotype map determining evolution of the adaptive ‘wrinkly spreader’ (WS) type is known. We present mathematical descriptions of three necessary regulatory pathways and use these to predict both the rate at which each mutational route is used and the expected mutational targets. To test predictions, mutation rates and targets were determined for each pathway. Unanticipated mutational hotspots caused experimental observations to depart from predictions but additional data led to refined models. A mismatch was observed between the spectra of WS-causing mutations obtained with and without selection due to low fitness of previously undetected WS-causing mutations. Our findings contribute toward the development of mechanistic models for forecasting evolution, highlight current limitations, and draw attention to challenges in predicting locus-specific mutational biases and fitness effects.

31Predicting evolutionary change poses numerous challenges. Here we take advantage 32 of the model bacterium Pseudomonas fluorescens in which the genotype-to-33 phenotype map determining evolution of the adaptive "wrinkly spreader" (WS) type 34 is known. We present mathematical descriptions of three necessary regulatory 35 pathways and use these to predict both the rate at which each mutational route is used 36 and the expected mutational targets. To test predictions, mutation rates and targets 37 were determined for each pathway. Unanticipated mutational hotspots caused 38 experimental observations to depart from predictions but additional data led to refined 39 models. A mismatch was observed between the spectra of WS-causing mutations 40 obtained with and without selection due to low fitness of previously undetected WS-41 causing mutations. Our findings contribute toward the development of mechanistic 42 models for forecasting evolution, highlight current limitations, and draw attention to 43 challenges in predicting locus-specific mutational biases and fitness effects. 44

Clonal diversity in asexual populations may be maintained if different clones are favoured under different environmental conditions. For aphids, parasitoids are an important variable of the biotic environment. To test whether parasitoids can mediate selection among host clones, we used experimental populations consisting of 10 clones of the peach-potato aphid, Myzus persicae, and allowed them to evolve for several generations either without parasitoids or in the presence of two species of parasitoid wasps. In the absence of parasitoids, strong shifts in clonal frequencies occurred, mostly in favour of clones with high rates of increase. The parasitoid Diaeretiella rapae hardly affected aphid densities but changed the outcome of competition by favouring one entirely resistant clone and disfavouring a highly susceptible clone. Aphidius colemani, the more infective parasitoid, strongly reduced aphid densities and dramatically changed host clonal frequencies. The most resistant clone, not a successful clone without parasitoids, became totally dominant. These results highlight the potential of temporal or spatial variation in parasitoid densities to maintain clonal diversity in their aphid hosts.

Specialization on different host plants can promote evolutionary diversification of herbivorous insects. Work on pea aphids (Acyrthosiphon pisum) has contributed significantly to the understanding of this process, demonstrating that populations associated with different host plants exhibit performance trade-offs across hosts, show adaptive host choice and genetic differentiation and possess different communities of bacterial endosymbionts. Populations specialized on different secondary host plants during the parthenogenetic summer generations are also described for the black bean aphid (Aphis fabae complex) and are usually treated as different (morphologically cryptic) subspecies. In contrast to pea aphids, however, host choice and mate choice are decoupled in black bean aphids, because populations from different summer hosts return to the same primary host plant to mate and lay overwintering eggs. This could counteract evolutionary divergence, and it is currently unknown to what extent black bean aphids using different summer hosts are indeed differentiated. We addressed this question by microsatellite genotyping and endosymbiont screening of black bean aphids collected in summer from the goosefoot Chenopodium album (subspecies A. f. fabae) and from thistles of the genus Cirsium (subspecies A. f. cirsiiacanthoides) across numerous sites in Switzerland and France. Our results show clearly that aphids from Cirsium and Chenopodium exhibit strong and geographically consistent genetic differentiation and that they differ in their frequencies of infection with particular endosymbionts. The dependence on a joint winter host has thus not prevented the evolutionary divergence into summer host-adapted populations that appear to have evolved mechanisms of reproductive isolation within a common mating habitat.

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