Accuracy of global bioclimatic databases is essential to understand biodiversity–environment relationships. Many studies have explored biases and uncertainties related to species distribution models (SDMs) but the effect of choosing a specific database among the different alternatives has not been previously assessed. The lack of bioclimatic congruence (degree of agreement) between different databases is a main concern in distribution modelling and it is critical in single‐source models, for which the database choice is decisive. In order to prevent unreliable predictions derived from distorted input data, SDMs accuracy can be assessed by mapping model predictions according to a bioclimatic congruence measure derived from the comparison of multiple databases, which can be achieved with the bioclimatic consistency maps that we propose in this study. Here, (a) we present the first global‐scale bioclimatic congruence map to analyse environmental mismatches between recently updated bioclimatic databases. We also test the importance of input matters on the reliability of distribution models of sixteen mammals, by addressing (b) inconsistencies among species response curves (temperature and precipitation), and (c) discrepancies among SDMs predictions depending on the chosen bioclimatic database. Finally, (d) we propose a strategy to assess bioclimatic consistency of model predictions, showing its application to the specific case of Litocranius walleri. Our results confirm that the single‐source modelling approach greatly influences the estimation of species–environment relationship and consequently, bias spatial predictions derived from SDMs. This is especially true for studies conducted in polar and mountainous regions which showed the smallest bioclimatic congruence. We show that by adding bioclimatic congruence to SDMs projections, we can build a bioclimatic consistency map that enables the detection of both risky and consistent areas, as revealed for the case of L. walleri. Assessing uncertainty in bioclimatic input data is key to avoid erroneous conclusions in macroecological and biogeographical studies. The spatial characterization of bioclimatic consistency provides an adequate empirical framework which effectively illustrates bioclimatic data limitations. We strongly recommend that this new strategy should be formally and systematically incorporated into distribution modelling to build more reliable SDMs, which are essential to develop successful biodiversity conservation programmes.

Quaternary climate changes have contributed to shape the biogeographic distribution of extant species. The combination of climatic niche conservatism and glacial‐interglacial cycles forced many species to retract their range limits for surviving under the advance of Pleistocene ice‐sheets. Refugia offered geographical opportunities for species to retreat, persist and, later on, begin recolonization processes under favourable environmental conditions. Here we explore the hypothesis that refugia have been not only crucial for the survival of multiple species but also acted as speciation centres for Western Palaearctic mammals. We define ‘recurrent massive refugia’ as those geographical regions that have historically accumulated the highest levels of co‐occurring species for several Quaternary cycles. Our assemblage‐level analyses identify the existence of refugia within the Iberian Peninsula and the Atlantic French margin that were recurrently selected by most mammals. The topographic heterogeneity, climatic stability and microhabitat availability of these refugial areas may have offered suitable habitat conditions for multiple species during different climatic events over time. Using a Bayesian analysis of macroevolutionary mixtures we detected that the higher level of divergence and accumulative evolutionary changes in mammals of the Western Palaearctic are found in refugia. The continuous retractions and expansions of species’ ranges during the Pleistocene promoted temporal changes in the composition and richness of communities in this biogeographic region. The reorganization of ecological composition driven by cyclical climatic events may have favoured the emergence of biotic interactions and ecological responses conducive to novel selective pressures. Our findings suggest, first, that multiple climatic changes in the form of glacial‐interglacial transitions during the Quaternary have left a detectable imprint on the observed geographical patterns of species richness in mammalian faunas of the Western Palaearctic, and second, highlight the importance of refugia for the preservation of species (‘museums’) and as centers of speciation and endemism (‘cradles’) as well.

Evolutionary rate explanations for latitudinal diversity gradients predict faster speciation and diversification rates in richer, older and more stable tropical regions (climatic stability hypothesis). Numerous modern lineages have emerged in high latitudes, however, suggesting that climatic oscillations can drive population divergence, at least among extratropical species (glacial refugia hypothesis). This conflicting evidence suggests that geographical patterns of evolutionary rates are more complicated than previously thought. Here, we reconstructed the complex evolutionary dynamics of a comprehensive data set of modern mammals, both terrestrial and marine. We performed global and regional regression analyses to investigate how climatic instability could have indirectly influenced contemporary diversity gradients through its effects on evolutionary rates. In particular, we explored global and regional patterns of the relationships between species richness and assemblage‐level evolutionary rates and between evolutionary rates and climatic instability. We found an inverse relationship between evolutionary rates and species richness, especially in the terrestrial domain. Additionally, climatic instability was strongly associated with the highest evolutionary rates at high terrestrial latitudes, supporting the glacial refugia hypothesis there. At low latitudes, evolutionary rates were unrelated to climatic stability. The inverse relationship between evolutionary rates and the modern latitudinal diversity gradient casts doubt on the idea that higher evolutionary rates in the tropics underlie the current diversity patterns of modern mammals. Alternatively, the longer time spans for diversity to accumulate in the older and more stable tropics (and not high diversification rates) may explain the latitudinal diversity gradient.

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Historically, studies aimed at prospecting and analyzing paleontological and neontological data to investigate species distribution have developed separately. Research at the interface between paleontology and biogeography has shown a unidirectional bias, mostly focusing on how paleontological information can aid biogeography to understand species distribution through time. However, the modern suit of techniques of ecological biogeography, particularly species distribution models (SDM), can be instrumental for paleontologists as well, improving the biogeography-paleontology interchange. In this study, we explore how to use paleoclimatic data and SDMs to support paleontological investigation regarding reduction of taxonomic uncertainty. Employing current data from two neotropical species (Lagostomus maximus and Myocastor coipus), we implemented SDMs and performed model validation comparing hindcasts with dated fossil occurrences (~14k and ~20k years back present, respectively). Finally, we employed the hindcasting process for two South American fossil records of a misidentified species of caiman (Caiman sp.) to show that C. latirostris is the most likely species identity of these fossils (among four candidate species: C. latirostris, C. yacare, C. crocodilus, and Melanosuchus niger). Possible limitations of the approach are discussed. With this strategy, we have shown that current developments in biogeography research can favour paleontology, extending the (biased) current interchange between these two scientific disciplines.