Globally, wide-ranging carnivore populations are imperiled due to human-caused habitat fragmentation. Where populations are fragmented, habitat quantification is often the first step in conservation. Presence-only species distribution models can provide robust results when proper scales and data are considered. We aimed to identify habitat for a fragmented carnivore population at two scales and aid conservation prioritization by identifying potential future habitat fragmentation. We used location data and environmental variables to develop a consensus model using Maxent and Mahalanobis distance to identify black bear (Ursus americanus floridanus) habitat across Florida, USA. We compared areas of habitat to areas of predicted sea level rise, development, and protected areas. Local-scale models performed better than state-scale models. We identified 23,798 km2 of habitat at the local-scale and 45,703 km2 at the state-scale. Approximately 10% of state- and 14% of local-scale habitat may be inundated by 2100, 16% of state- and 7% of local-scale habitat may be developed, and 54% of state- and 15% of local-scale habitat is unprotected. Results suggest habitat is at risk of fragmentation. Lack of focused conservation and connectivity among bear subpopulations could further fragmentation, and ultimately threaten population stability as seen in other fragmented carnivore populations globally.

Avian influenza (AI) affects wild aquatic birds and poses hazards to human health, food security, and wildlife conservation globally. Accordingly, there is a recognized need for new methods and tools to help quantify the dynamic interaction between wild bird hosts and commercial poultry. Using satellite-marked waterfowl, we applied Bayesian joint hierarchical modeling to concurrently model species distributions, residency times, migration timing, and disease occurrence probability under an integrated animal movement and disease distribution modeling framework. Our results indicate that migratory waterfowl are positively related to AI occurrence over North America such that as waterfowl occurrence probability or residence time increase at a given location, so too does the chance of a commercial poultry AI outbreak. Analyses also suggest that AI occurrence probability is greatest during our observed waterfowl northward migration, and less during the southward migration. Methodologically, we found that when modeling disparate facets of disease systems at the wildlifeagriculture interface, it is essential that multiscale spatial patterns be addressed to avoid mistakenly inferring a disease process or disease-environment relationship from a pattern evaluated at the improper spatial scale. The study offers important insights into migratory waterfowl ecology and AI disease dynamics that aid in better preparing for future outbreaks. Avian influenza is a global concern and poses hazards to human health, food security, and wildlife conservation worldwide 1,2. Domestic poultry operations are particularly vulnerable to avian influenza viruses maintained in wild bird hosts 3-6 as the viruses may be spread to poultry 7-10 via direct contact or by way of environmental contamination. Once introduced into a poultry operation, avian influenza viruses of the H5 and H7 hemagglutinin subtype can rapidly propagate through commercial flocks and mutate to the Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) pathotype with increased virulence 1,11,12. HPAI outbreaks can inflict direct stock mortality or necessitate that culling protocols be implemented to minimize the risk of disease spread. In rare instances, control efforts may also reduce the spread of viruses potentially lethal to humans, as was shown for Goose Guangdong (GsGD) lineage HPAI H5N1 and H7N9 in China 13,14. Avian influenza viruses circulate among wild aquatic birds globally and taxa such as migratory waterfowl are considered to be natural biologic reservoirs 15. Waterfowl are infected with varying virus subtypes, including those with the H5 and H7 hemagglutinin protein that have the potential to mutate to HPAI in poultry throughout the Neotropics and Nearctic 16-19. During 2014 and 2015, it appears migratory waterfowl contributed to the introduction of GsGD lineage HPAI H5 viruses into North America 20-22 and subsequent spread in Canada and the U.S. 23-26. This outbreak was the largest in U.S. history, affected wild and domestic birds in 21 U.S. States, resulted in the loss of a...

Highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) H5N1 was introduced in North America in late 2021 through trans-Atlantic and trans-Pacific pathways via migratory birds. These introductions have resulted in an unprecedented and widespread epizootic event for North America, heavily affecting poultry and free-living wild birds in the spring and summer of 2022. The North American incursions are occurring in the context of Europe’s largest epidemic season (2021 – 2022) where HPAIV may now be enzootic. A continued North American epizootic is expected in the fall of 2022 as migratory waterfowl return from their breeding grounds. The magnitude of the North American HPAIV spread indicates the need for effective decision framing to prioritize ongoing management needs and scientific inquiry, particularly for species at risk and interface areas for wildlife, poultry, and humans. The challenges of this global One Health disease could benefit from a decision framing which may result in improved collaboration across stakeholders, identification of management options, and prioritization of scientific needs. Here, we provide an overview of the Eurasian origin HPAIV H5N1 introduction, including a shift in the dynamics of disease, which has resulted in severe disease in wild birds. It is unclear if wild bird may have been previously not exposed or asymptomatic to disease. We seek to bring attention to the detrimental effects this One Health issue may have on wild birds, poultry, and potentially human health and to suggest that reframing ongoing disease management as decisions, rather than as scientific endeavors, could be a valuable change in focus.

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Avian influenza viruses can pose serious risks to agricultural production, human health, and wildlife. An understanding of viruses in wild reservoir species across time and space is important to informing surveillance programs, risk models, and potential population impacts for vulnerable species. Although it is recognized that influenza A virus prevalence peaks in reservoir waterfowl in late summer through autumn, temporal and spatial variation across species has not been fully characterized. We combined two large influenza databases for North America and applied spatiotemporal models to explore patterns in prevalence throughout the annual cycle and across the continental United States for 30 waterfowl species. Peaks in prevalence in late summer through autumn were pronounced for dabbling ducks in the genera Anas and Spatula, but not Mareca. Spatially, areas of high prevalence appeared to be related to regional duck density, with highest predicted prevalence found across the upper Midwest during early fall, though further study is needed. We documented elevated prevalence in late winter and early spring, particularly in the Mississippi Alluvial Valley. Our results suggest that spatiotemporal variation in prevalence outside autumn staging areas may also represent a dynamic parameter to be considered in IAV ecology and associated risks.