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Knowledge of dominant predators is necessary to identifY predation patterns and mitigate losses to nest predation, especially for endangered songbirds. We monitored songbird nests with timelapse infrared video cameras at

New analytical methods have been promoted for estimating the probability of detection and density of birds from count data but few studies have compared these methods using real data. We compared estimates of detection probability and density from distance and time‐removal models and survey protocols based on 5‐ or 10‐min counts and outer radii of 50 or 100 m. We surveyed singing male Acadian flycatchers (Empidonax virescens), cerulean warblers (Dendroica cerulea), Kentucky warblers (Oporornis formosus), Louisiana waterthrushes (Parkesia motacilla), wood thrushes (Hylocichla mustelina), and worm‐eating warblers (Helmitheros vermivorum) in bottomland and upland forest across 5 states in the Central Hardwoods Bird Conservation Region during the breeding season in 2007 and 2008. Detection probabilities differed between distance and time‐removal models and species detectabilities were affected differently by year, forest type, and state. Density estimates from distance models were generally higher than from time‐removal models, resulting from lower detection probabilities estimated by distance models. We found support for individual heterogeneity (modeled as a finite mixture model) in the time‐removal models and that 50‐m radius counts generated density estimates approximately twice as high as 100‐m radius counts. Users should be aware that in addition to estimating different components of detectability, density estimates derived from distance and time‐removal models can be affected by survey protocol because some count durations and plot radii may better meet model assumptions than others. The choice of a method may not affect the use of estimates for relative comparisons (e.g., when comparing habitats) but could affect conclusions when used to estimate population size. We recommend careful consideration of assumptions when deciding on point‐count protocol and selection of analysis methods. © 2011 The Wildlife Society.

Increased temperatures and more extreme weather patterns associated with global climate change can interact with other factors that regulate animal populations, but many climate change studies do not incorporate other threats to wildlife in their analyses. We used 20 years of nest-monitoring data from study sites across a gradient of habitat fragmentation in Missouri, USA, to investigate the relative influence of weather variables (temperature and precipitation) and landscape factors (forest cover and edge density) on the number of young produced per nest attempt (i.e., productivity) for three species of songbirds. We detected a strong forest cover × temperature interaction for the Acadian Flycatcher (Empidonax virescens) on productivity. Greater forest cover resulted in greater productivity because of reduced brood parasitism and increased nest survival, whereas greater temperatures reduced productivity in highly forested landscapes because of increased nest predation but had no effect in less forested landscapes. The Indigo Bunting (Passerina cyanea) exhibited a similar pattern, albeit with a marginal forest cover × temperature interaction. By contrast, productivity of the Northern Cardinal (Cardinalis cardinalis) was not influenced by landscape effects or temperature. Our results highlight a potential difficulty of managing wildlife in response to global change such as habitat fragmentation and climate warming, as the habitat associated with the greatest productivity for flycatchers was also that most negatively influenced by high temperatures. The influence of high temperatures on nest predation (and therefore, nest predators) underscores the need to acknowledge the potential complexity of species' responses to climate change by incorporating a more thorough consideration of community ecology in the development of models of climate impacts on wildlife.

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Context Golden-cheeked warblers (Setophaga chrysoparia), an endangered wood-warbler, breed exclusively in woodlands co-dominated by Ashe juniper (Juniperus ashei) in central Texas. Their breeding range is becoming increasingly urbanized and habitat loss and fragmentation are a main threat to the species' viability.Objectives We investigated the effects of remotely sensed local habitat and landscape attributes on point occupancy and density of warblers in an urban preserve and produced a spatially explicit density map for the preserve using model-supported relationships. Methods We conducted 1507 point-count surveys during spring 2011-2014 across Balcones Canyonlands Preserve (BCP) to evaluate warbler habitat associations and predict density of males. We used hierarchical Bayesian models to estimate multiple components of detection probability and evaluate covariate effects on detection probability, point occupancy, and density. Results Point occupancy was positively related to landscape forest cover and local canopy cover; mean occupancy was 0.83. Density was influenced more by local than landscape factors. Density increased with greater amounts of juniper and mixed forest and decreased with more open edge. There was a weak negative relationship between density and landscape urban land cover. Conclusions Landscape composition and habitat structure were important determinants of warbler occupancy and density, and the large intact patches of juniper and mixed forest on BCP ([2100 ha) supported a high density of warblers. Increasing urbanization and fragmentation in the surrounding landscape will likely result in lower breeding density due to loss of juniper and mixed forest and increasing urban land cover and edge.