Agri-food supply chains in North America have become remarkably efficient, supplying an unprecedented variety of items at the lowest possible cost. However, the initial stages of the COVID-19 pandemic and the near-total temporary loss of the foodservice distribution channel, exposed a vulnerability that many found surprising. Instead of continued shortages, however, the agri-food sector has since moved back to near normal conditions with prices and production levels similar to those typically observed in years prior to the pandemic. Ironically, the specialization in most food supply chains designed for “just-in-time” delivery to specific customers with no reserve capacity, which led to the initial disruptions, may have also been responsible for its rapid rebound. A common theme in assessing the impacts across the six commodities examined is the growing importance of understanding the whole supply chain. Over the longer term, a continuation of the pandemic could push the supply chain toward greater consolidation of firms and diversification of products given the increasing option value of maintaining flexibility. Other structural changes will be felt through input markets, most notably labour, as the trend toward greater automation will continue to accelerate as a response to meeting concerns about a consistent supply of healthy and productive workers. The economic fall out from the pandemic may lead to greater concentration in the sector as some firms are not able to survive the downturn and changes in consumer food buying behaviour, including movement toward online shopping and enhanced demand for attributes associated with resiliency, such as local. On the other hand, online shopping may provide opportunities for small producers and processors to shorten supply chains and reach customers directly. In the long term, COVID-19 impacts on global commerce and developing country production are more uncertain and could influence poverty reduction. While COVID-19's impacts on North American agriculture should have minimal effect on the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) through food prices, the ongoing global trends in trade and agribusiness accelerated by the pandemic are relevant for achievement of the SDGs.

The authors are grateful to Vince Breneman and Ryan Williams for providing data and to Steve Wallander for reviewing this article.

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to consider how the federal crop insurance (FCI) program influences farm debt use, one of the key financial decisions made by farm operators. Design/methodology/approach – Using data from the nationally representative Agricultural Resource Management Survey, the paper implements a propensity score matching model of the impact of FCI participation on various measures of farm business debt use. To account for the simultaneity of financial decisions, the paper further tests this relationship using a seemingly unrelated regression model. Findings – FCI participation is associated with an increase in use of short-term farm debt, but not long-term debt, consistent with risk balancing behavior and current trends in the farm sector. Research limitations/implications – In addition to risk balancing, the results are also consistent with credit constraints or lender preferences. The paper cannot fully establish causality between crop insurance participation and short-term debt levels. Future research should address these limitations. Practical implications – Agricultural lending standards are generally conservative and the farm sector as a whole currently has historically low leverage, which implies that an increase in debt use may not be a threat to the financial health of the farm sector. Social implications – The results indicate that the reduction in total risk facing the farm sector is significantly less than the decline in risk provided by FCI, which is an important consideration for policymakers. Originality/value – This is the first paper to use an econometric model to analyze the relationship between FCI and farm debt use decisions. This paper can inform future research on the FCI program and farm financial decisions.

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