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Vaccinated, no previous COVID-19 diagnosis Unvaccinated, previous COVID-19 diagnosis Vaccinated, previous COVID-19 diagnosis Unvaccinated, previous COVID-19 diagnosis Vaccinated, previous COVID-19 diagnosis Cases, California May 30-Jun 5 20.

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With a population of forty million and substantial geographic variation in sociodemographics and health services, California is an important setting in which to study disparities. Its population (37.5 percent White, 39.1 percent Latino, 5.3 percent Black, and 14.4 percent Asian) experienced 59,258 COVID-19 deaths through April 14, 2021-the most of any state. We analyzed California's racial/ethnic disparities in COVID-19 exposure risks, testing rates, test positivity, and case rates through October 2020, combining data from 15.4 million SARS-CoV-2 tests with subcounty exposure risk estimates from the American Community Survey. We defined "high-exposure-risk" households as those with one or more essential workers and fewer rooms than inhabitants. Latino people in California are 8.1 times more likely to live in high-exposure-risk households than White people (23.6 percent versus 2.9 percent), are overrepresented in cumulative cases (3,784 versus 1,112 per 100,000 people), and are underrepresented in cumulative testing (35,635 versus 48,930 per 100,000 people). These risks and outcomes were worse for Latino people than for members of other racial/ ethnic minority groups. Subcounty disparity analyses can inform targeting of interventions and resources, including community-based testing and vaccine access measures. Tracking COVID-19 disparities and developing equity-focused public health programming that mitigates the effects of systemic racism can help improve health outcomes among California's populations of color. T he COVID-19 pandemic in the US has disproportionately affected people with low socioeconomic status, as well as Black, Indigenous, and Latino people, 1-6 all of whom have experienced higher rates of cases, 7,8 hospitalizations, 1,9,10 and deaths. 8,9,11 As a state with a population of forty million with substantial county and regional variation in terms of dem-ographics, socioeconomic status, and health services, California is an important setting in which to study these disparities. As of April 14, 2021, California's 59,258 total COVID-19 deaths represented the highest number among all states, within a statewide population that is 37.5 percent White, 39.1 percent Latino, 5.3 percent Black, and 14.4 percent Asian. 12,13 Previous analyses of COVID-19 disparities in California have focused

BackgroundInfectious disease forecasting aims to predict characteristics of both seasonal epidemics and future pandemics. Accurate and timely infectious disease forecasts could aid public health responses by informing key preparation and mitigation efforts.Main bodyFor forecasts to be fully integrated into public health decision-making, federal, state, and local officials must understand how forecasts were made, how to interpret forecasts, and how well the forecasts have performed in the past. Since the 2013–14 influenza season, the Influenza Division at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has hosted collaborative challenges to forecast the timing, intensity, and short-term trajectory of influenza-like illness in the United States. Additional efforts to advance forecasting science have included influenza initiatives focused on state-level and hospitalization forecasts, as well as other infectious diseases. Using CDC influenza forecasting challenges as an example, this paper provides an overview of infectious disease forecasting; applications of forecasting to public health; and current work to develop best practices for forecast methodology, applications, and communication.ConclusionsThese efforts, along with other infectious disease forecasting initiatives, can foster the continued advancement of forecasting science.