SU MMARYCrop yield and optimum nitrogen fertilization rates (Nopt) are often calculated ex post by specific functions of the nitrogen fertilization rate, but in doing this, uncertainties in terms of model choice, annual nitrogen response variations and parameter estimation are neglected. In the present study, Nopt, grain yields, net revenues and N balances were estimated for the three crops of an oilseed rape (OSR)-winter wheat-winter barley rotation. The effects of uncertainties were considered using three different statistical models, estimating an identical Nopt over the years and carrying out Monte-Carlo simulations where model parameters were varied according to their estimated standard errors. The statistical models used were the quadratic (Q) polynomial function, the linear response and plateau (LRP) function and the quadratic response and plateau (QRP) function.The Q model tended to estimate the highest Nopt values for the three crops, followed by the QRP and the LRP model in an initial ex post analysis. The highest corresponding mean net revenues in the rotation were estimated by the LRP model, followed by the Q and QRP model ; mean N balances increased in the order LRP, QRP and Q. In the comparison of the crops, OSR showed the highest N balances followed by wheat and barley. Considering the protein concentration in wheat, Nopt values estimated by the Q model were considerably higher than without the economic effects of grain quality.In order to consider uncertainties in annual nitrogen response, an ex ante Nopt over the years was determined by maximizing the cumulated net revenues over all years in the rotation. Ex ante Nopt was higher as the mean of the ex post Nopt values for the QRP and LRP model. Average grain yields and net revenues were lower, N balances were higher. Running the Monte-Carlo simulations, ex post Nopt was obtained by 10 000 generated functions in each year and ex ante Nopt by 50 000 generated functions of years 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999 and 2002. This led to an increase in Nopt especially for the LRP model, while effects on the estimation of Nopt by the Q model were rather small. For the LRP model, corresponding mean net revenue decreased and mean N balance rose. In contrast, due to marginal changes in Nopt, the consideration of uncertainties in the estimations had only a small effect on net revenue and N balance in the Q model.In general, all kinds of uncertainty tended to increase Nopt but this effect was much higher for the LRP model as compared to the Q model. This increase in Nopt was associated with decreasing net revenues and increasing N balances. Exceptionally in OSR using the Q model, however, the ex ante approaches considering uncertainty led to slightly lower Nopt values compared to the ex post value.
Winter oilseed rape (OSR) demands high levels of N fertilizer, often exceeding 200 kg N ha -1 . Large amounts of residual soil mineral nitrogen (SMN) after harvest are regularly observed, and therefore N leaching during the percolation period over winter is increased. In this study agronomic strategies (fertilization level, crop rotation, tillage intensity) to control nitrate leaching after OSR were investigated by combining field measurements (soil mineral nitrogen, soil water content, crop N uptake) of a 2-year trial and another 5-year field trial with simulation modeling. The crop-soil model uses a daily time step and was built from existing and partly refined submodels for soil water dynamics, mineralization processes, and N uptake. It was used to reproduce the complex processes of the N dynamics and to calculate N concentration in the leachate and total volume of percolation water. Some parameters values were thereby newly identified based on the agreement between measured data and model results. Although SMN in the 60-90 cm layer was overestimated, the model could reproduce the measured data with an acceptable degree of accuracy. Overfertilization of OSR increased N leaching and therefore the precise calculation of N fertilizer doses is a first step towards prevent N leaching. Compared to ploughing, minimum tillage decreased N leaching when winter wheat was grown as the subsequent crop. Volunteer OSR and Phacelia tanacetifolia were grown as catch crops after OSR harvest. N leaching could be decreased especially when Phacelia was grown, but nitrate concentrations in the drainage water were higher and exceeded the European Union (EU) threshold for drinking water when volunteer OSR was grown. The results of this study provide strong evidence that reduced tillage or growing of noncruciferous catch crops decrease N leaching and may be used as an agricultural measure to prevent N pollution.
Background: There is a well-established relationship between poor executive cognitive abilities and elderly fall risk, but the precise mechanism underlying this relationship is unknown. Older persons frequently fall or trip on objects below eye level, and it was hypothesized that the pathological mechanism linking low executive function and fall risk is a selective impairment in the resolution of visual attention in the lower visual fields. Objective: To determine ifnormally sighted older persons living in the community with deficits in executive cognitive abilities have a reduced resolution of visual attention in the lower visual fields compared to elderly and younger subjects with high executive abilities. Methods: Eye and head angulations were monitored as subjects fixated on a point rear-projected at eye level at the end of a 3- meter walkway. Visual stimuli were briefly presented (<300 ms) in the peripheral visual field (with and without distractors) to directly cue the selection of the right or left foot to lead a step over a foam obstacle resting at the subject’s feet. No saccades were allowed until the stimulus was extinguished, at which time a down-saccade-step sequence moved the foot over the obstacle. The resolution of visual attention (tested with gratings) and the influence of target eccentricity in the upper and lower visual fields were evaluated. The primary outcome measures were step error and obstacle contact rate, saccade occurrence after extinguished stimulus and the log of cue-saccade latency (limb-independent reaction time). Results: All groups experienced greater stepping errors than expected by chance when stimuli were presented in the lower versus upper visual field and with increasing eccentricity. However, the obstacle contact rate was greater, cue-saccade latency was prolonged, and fewer down-saccades were generated in the elderly group with poor executive abilities compared to those with high executive function and younger subjects. Conclusions: Loss of visual attention in the lower visual fields was not unique to elderly subjects with poor executive function. However, slowed processing time and reduction in the frequency of down-saccades associated with a low level of executive function potentially account for the mechanism linking executive abilities and fall risk.
SUMMARYImplementation of the EU Nitrate Directive in Germany will result in nitrogen (N) balance surpluses being restricted to 60 kg N/ha averaged over 3 years, starting in 2009. With N surpluses of more than 100 kg N/ha, winter oilseed rape (OSR) is a main contributor to N balance surpluses in OSR-based crop rotations in northern Germany. The exact calculation of N fertilization rates therefore becomes increasingly important in order to meet the target of less than 60 kg N/ha N balance average surplus over 3 years at a farm level. Currently, soil mineral nitrogen (SMN) at the beginning of spring growth is commonly used as an indicator for calculation of N fertilization rates in spring. However, amounts of SMN at the beginning of spring growth under OSR are usually low and canopy N is only taken into account to a very limited extent. This might lead to N fertilization rates exceeding the optimum N fertilization rate (Nopt). In the present study, the effects of SMN in spring and of canopy N in autumn and spring on Nopt were investigated. Multi-site field trials producing different crop canopies, as a result of two sowing dates and two autumn N fertilization levels, with five spring N fertilization levels (0–280 kg N/ha) were carried out in 2005/06 and 2006/07.Nopt in spring was estimated by quadratic response functions using the combine-harvested seed yield data from the spring N fertilization treatments. Regression analyses revealed no relationship between Nopt and SMN at the beginning of spring growth or canopy N at the beginning of spring growth. In contrast, a significant negative correlation between Nopt and canopy N at the end of autumn growth was found. Based on the results of the present study, it is sensible to take autumn canopy N into account when calculating N fertilization rates in spring. If canopy N in autumn is high (>50 kg N/ha), as a consequence, N fertilization rates should be reduced.
Key Points Question What are the operational challenges limiting effective implementation of a real-time West Nile virus (WNV) forecasting system? Findings In this modeling study of historical and real-time mosquito WNV assay results and human medical records, delays in data reporting for both infected mosquitoes and human WNV cases were associated with a reduction in average WNV forecast accuracy. Meaning For public health departments and mosquito abatement districts to integrate forecasting effectively into operational decision making, the relaying of real-time health and environmental surveillance data should be prioritized.
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