Insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) are at the forefront of malaria control programs and even though the percentage of households in sub-Saharan Africa that owned nets increased from 3% in 2000 to 53% in 2012, many children continue to die from malaria. The potential impact of ITNs on reducing malaria transmission is limited due to inconsistent or improper use, as well as physical decay in effectiveness. Most mathematical models for malaria transmission have assumed a fixed effectiveness rate for bed-nets, which can overestimate the impact of nets on malaria control. We develop a model for malaria spread that captures the decrease in ITN effectiveness due to physical and chemical decay, as well as human behavior as a function of time. We perform uncertainty and sensitivity analyses to identify and rank parameters that play a critical role in malaria transmission. These analyses show that the basic reproduction number R0, and the infectious human population are most sensitive to bed-net coverage and the biting rate of mosquitoes. Our results show the existence of a backward bifurcation for the case in which ITN efficacy is constant over time, which occurs for some range of parameters and is characterized by high malaria mortality in humans. This result implies that bringing R0 to less than one is not enough for malaria elimination but rather additional efforts will be necessary to control the disease. For the case in which ITN efficacy decays over time, we determine coverage levels required to control malaria for different ITN efficacies and demonstrate that ITNs with longer useful lifespans perform better in malaria control. We conclude that malaria control programs should focus on increasing bed-net coverage, which can be achieved by enhancing malaria education and increasing bed-net distribution in malaria endemic regions.

BackgroundThe use of intermittent preventive treatment in pregnant women (IPTp), children (IPTc) and infant (IPTi) is an increasingly popular preventive strategy aimed at reducing malaria risk in these vulnerable groups. Studies to understand how this preventive intervention can affect the spread of anti-malarial drug resistance are important especially when there is human movement between neighbouring low and high transmission areas. Because the same drug is sometimes utilized for IPTi and for symptomatic malaria treatment, distinguishing their individual roles on accelerating the spread of drug resistant malaria, with or without human movement, may be difficult to isolate experimentally or by analysing data. A theoretical framework, as presented here, is thus relevant as the role of IPTi on accelerating the spread of drug resistance can be isolated in individual populations and when the populations are interconnected and interact.MethodsA previously published model is expanded to include human movement between neighbouring high and low transmission areas, with focus placed on the malaria parasites. Parasite fitness functions, determined by how many humans the parasites can infect, are used to investigate how fast resistance can spread within the neighbouring communities linked by movement, when the populations are at endemic equilibrium.ResultsModel simulations indicate that population movement results in resistance spreading fastest in high transmission areas, and the more complete the anti-malarial resistance the faster the resistant parasite will tend to spread through a population. Moreover, the demography of infection in low transmission areas tends to change to reflect the demography of high transmission areas. Additionally, when regions are strongly connected the rate of spread of partially resistant parasites (R1) relative to drug sensitive parasites (RS), and fully resistant parasites (R2) relative to partially resistant parasites (R1) tend to behave the same in both populations, as should be expected.ConclusionsIn fighting anti-malarial drug resistance, different drug resistance monitoring and management policies are needed when the area in question is an isolated high or low transmission area, or when it is close and interacting with a neighbouring high or low transmission area, with human movement between them.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1186/1475-2875-13-428) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

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Although malaria prevalence has witnessed a significant reduction within the past decade, malaria still constitutes a major health and economic problem, especially to low-income countries. Insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) remain one of the primary measures for preventing the malignant disease. Unfortunately, the success of ITN campaigns is hampered by improper use and natural decay in ITN-efficacy over time. Many models aimed at studying malaria transmission and control fail to account for this decay, as well as mosquito demography and feeding preferences exhibited by mosquitoes towards humans. Omitting these factors can misrepresent disease risk, while understanding their effects on malaria dynamics can inform control policy. We present a model for malaria dynamics that incorporates these factors, and a systematic analysis, including stability and sensitivity analyses of the model under different conditions. The model with constant ITN-efficacy exhibits a backward bifurcation emphasizing the need for sustained control measures until the basic reproduction number, R0, drops below a critical value at which control is feasible. The infectious and partially immune human populations and R0 are highly sensitive to the probability that a mosquito feeds successfully on a human, ITN coverage and the maximum biting rate of mosquitoes, irrespective of whether ITN-efficacy is constant or declines over time. This implies that ITNs play an important role in disease control. When ITN-efficacy wanes over time, we identify disease risks and corresponding ITN coverage, as well as feeding preference levels for which the disease can be controlled or eradicated. Our study leads to important insights that could assist in the design and implementation of better malaria control strategies. We conclude that ITNs that can retain their effectiveness for longer periods will be more appropriate in the fight against malaria and that making more ITNs available to highly endemic regions is necessary for malaria containment.

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