T HE CONCEPT OF "globalization" has recently been the subject of considerable attention in both academic and policy circles. This phenomenon broadly refers to the increasing integration of the world economy through financial and trade flows. As economies become more open to international trade, the transmission and propagation of economic fluctuations through trade links has assumed increased importance. An analysis of the cyclical dynamics of international trade therefore has implications in a number of different dimensions, including macroeconomic forecasting, short-run policymaking, and international policy coordination.
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