Summary In recent decades, the Eurasian lynx Lynx lynx has recolonized former habitat, bringing it into potential conflict with livestock. We studied the spatial and temporal distribution of lynx attacks on sheep in the French Jura between 1984 and 1998, during and after its population expansion. We estimated the local and regional impact of lynx predation on livestock. The number of attacks increased from three in 1984 to 188 in 1989, concurrently with the colonization of the main sheep range by lynx. During subsequent years, 66–131 attacks were recorded annually (92–194 sheep killed per year). On average, 1·6 sheep were killed per attack. Lynx preyed disproportionately on lambs and subadult sheep. A small percentage of flocks (9·5–22·9%) were attacked, most of which (75·2%) were attacked once or twice a year. At the regional level, annual sheep losses to lynx were 0·14–0·59% of the total number of sheep. The major lynx–livestock problem was due to clustered attacks in a few small areas. Each year, two to six ‘hot spots’ (33–69% of the attacks) were identified. Hot spots covered 0·3–4·5% of the total area where attacks occurred (1835–4061 km2). Roe deer abundance was higher in hot spots and, even here, sheep only made up 3·1% of the lynx diet. These data show that lynx were not killing sheep due to shortages of alternative prey or in response to an increased need for food when rearing young. The concentration of hot spots in only nine small areas between 1984 and 1998 indicated that only a few individual lynx were involved. The reappearance of hot spots at the same sites, after years of interruption and despite the removal of lynx, suggested that the ultimate factors causing hot spots were factors inherent to those sites. Further investigation is needed to identify causal factors with a view to eliminating them. These may relate to landscapes features, animal husbandry practices or the behavioural ecology of lynx. In future, where large predator reintroductions are planned, the potential for concentrated, localized, impact should be evaluated and mitigation measures put in place. For scattered and episodic lynx damage, financial compensation is the only realistic option at present. In hot spots, the cost‐effectiveness of guard‐dogs or the selective removal of some individual lynx should be evaluated.

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BioOne Complete (complete.BioOne.org) is a full-text database of 200 subscribed and open-access titles in the biological, ecological, and environmental sciences published by nonprofit societies, associations, museums, institutions, and presses.

Summary 1.In regions where sheep are kept in fenced pastures and do not graze unattended in carnivore habitats, sheep losses vary greatly between sites and livestock farms. To assess the factors that may predispose farms to lynx predation in the French Jura, we compared sheep availability and environmental characteristics between pastures with and without attacks in a 1800-km 2 study area. Nine lynx were radio-tracked in the same area for a total of 21 lynx years to estimate individual killing rates on sheep and to identify possible habitual livestock killers. 2. Depending on individual and year, lynx predation rate on sheep within lynx home ranges varied between 0 and 12·4 attacks 100 days -1. Predation rate on sheep was not related to sheep abundance nor sheep dispersion in lynx home ranges. Two individuals became habitual sheep killers during, respectively, their third and fourth year of monitoring. Other lynx that had access to the same flocks were only occasional sheep killers. No obvious causal factor (e.g. sex, reproductive status, physical debilitation) explained the differential individual propensity for lynx to kill livestock. 3. We found no difference in sheep availability between pastures with and without attacks, but strong differences in their environmental characteristics. In only 5·1% of 98 pastures > 250 m from a forest were sheep attacked by lynx. In 228 pastures adjacent or connected to forests by cover, 39·1% sustained attacks on sheep by lynx (P < 0·01). For these latter pastures, logistic regression showed a positive effect of their proximity to major forested areas (P < 0·01), absence of human dwellings (P < 0·01), local abundance of roe deer (P = 0·01) and the presence of attacked pastures in their vicinity (P = 0·03). 4. These results suggests that lynx damage locally can be explained by a predictable set of habitat features that expose sheep on some pastures to risk, and by an unpredictable event, i.e. an individual developing regular predation on sheep. 5. In grazing systems like the Jura, where unattended sheep are distributed patchily and individual problem lynx may appear, removing lynx or lowering density without differentiating individuals will be insufficient to limit conflicts. Selective removals could temporarily reduce predation but the site effect implies that durable management can arise only through improved shepherding. This might include guard dogs in the few local sites at risk and providing shelter for sheep at night when attacks are on the increase.

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