The African baobab (Adansonia digitata L.) is an emblematic, culturally important, and physically huge tropical tree species whose natural geographical distribution comprises most of tropical Africa, but also small patches of southern Arabia, and several Atlantic and Indian Ocean islands surrounding the African continent, notably including Madagascar. We analysed the polymerase chain reaction-restriction fragment length polymorphism of five chloroplast DNA fragments obtained from 344 individuals of A. digitata collected from 74 populations covering the entire extant distribution range of the species. Our goal was to reconstruct the phylogeographical history of the species and, if possible, to identify its centre of origin, which has been a subject of controversy for many decades. We identified five haplotypes whose distribution is clearly geographically structured. Using several species of Adansonia and of closely related genera as outgroups, the haplotypes showed a clear phylogeographical pattern of three groups. Two are phylogenetically related to the outgroup taxa, and are distributed in West Africa. The third group is substantially more differentiated genetically from outgroup species, and it corresponds to southern and eastern Africa, Arabia and the Indian Ocean islands, including Madagascar. According to our results, the tetraploid A. digitata, or its diploid progenitor, probably originated in West Africa and migrated subsequently throughout the tropical parts of that continent, and beyond, by natural and human-mediated terrestrial and overseas dispersal.

BackgroundMembers of the Anopheles gambiae complex are amongst the best malaria vectors in the world, but their vectorial capacities vary between species and populations. A large-scale sampling of An. gambiae sensu lato was carried out in various bioclimatic domains of Madagascar. Local abundance of an unexpected member of this complex raised questions regarding its role in malaria transmission.MethodsSampling took place at 38 sites and 2,067 females were collected. Species assessment was performed using a PCR targeting a sequence in the IGS of the rDNA. Analysis focused on the relative prevalence of the species per site, bioclimatic domain and altitude. Infectivity of Anopheles merus was assessed using an ELISA to detect the presence of malarial circumsporozoite protein in the head-thorax.ResultsThree species were identified: An. gambiae, Anopheles arabiensis and An. merus. The distribution of each species is mainly a function of bioclimatic domains and, to a lesser extent, altitude. An. arabiensis is present in all bioclimatic domains with highest prevalence in sub-humid, dry and sub-arid domains. An. gambiae has its highest prevalence in the humid domain, is in the minority in dry areas, rare in sub-humid and absent in sub-arid domains. An. merus is restricted to the coastal fringe in the south and west; it was in the majority in one southern village. The majority of sites were sympatric for at least two of the species (21/38) and two sites harboured all three species.The role of An. merus as malaria vector was confirmed in the case of two human-biting females, which were ELISA-positive for Plasmodium falciparum.ConclusionDespite the huge environmental (mainly man-made) changes in Madagascar, the distribution of An. gambiae and An. arabiensis appears unchanged for the past 35 years. The distribution of An. merus is wider than was previously known, and its effectiveness as a malaria vector has been shown for the first time; this species is now on the list of Malagasy malaria vectors.

It is commonly accepted that species should move toward higher elevations and latitudes to track shifting isotherms as climate warms. However, temperature might not be the only limiting factor determining species distribution. Species might move to opposite directions to track changes in other climatic variables. Here, we used an extensive occurrence data set and an ensemble modelling approach to model the climatic niche and to predict the distribution of the seven baobab species (genus Adansonia) present in Madagascar. Using climatic projections from three global circulation models, we predicted species' future distribution and extinction risk for 2055 and 2085 under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and two dispersal scenarios. We disentangled the role of each climatic variable in explaining species range shift looking at relative variable importance and future climatic anomalies. Four baobab species (Adansonia rubrostipa, Adansonia madagascariensis, Adansonia perrieri¸ and Adansonia suarezensis) could experience a severe range contraction in the future (>70% for year 2085 under RCP 8.5, assuming a zero-dispersal hypothesis). For three out of the four threatened species, range contraction was mainly explained by an increase in temperature seasonality, especially in the North of Madagascar, where they are currently distributed. In tropical regions, where species are commonly adapted to low seasonality, we found that temperature seasonality will generally increase. It is, thus, very likely that many species in the tropics will be forced to move equatorward to avoid an increase in temperature seasonality. Yet, several ecological (e.g., equatorial limit, or unsuitable deforested habitat) or geographical barriers (absence of lands) could prevent species to move equatorward, thus increasing the extinction risk of many tropical species, like endemic baobab species in Madagascar.

The clear genetic differentiation observed between the six species may reflect their adaptation to different assortments of climate regimes and habitats during the colonization of the island. Microsatellite variation reveals that hybridization probably occurred in secondary contact between species of section Longitubae. This type of hybridization may also have been involved in the differentiation of a local new stabilized entity showing specific microsatellite alleles and morphological characters, suggesting a potential role of hybridization in the recent history of diversification on Madagascar.