[eng] Growth and employment the scope of an European initiative Jacques Drèze, Edmond Malinvaud et Alii Executive Summary 1. Since almost twenty years now, European unemployment is a major social problem and the sign of significant underutilisation of resources at a time of substantial unfilled needs. Whereas employment increased by nearly 6 % between 1987 and 1990 in EC12, the rate of employment is now again exceeding 10 % and rising. Even under reasonably optimistic forecasts (a growth rate of 2.5 to 3 %), the unemployment rate will remain above 10 % for at least four or five years. This position paper reviews the short-, medium- and long-run policies best susceptible of promoting growth and employment in Europe. 2. We argue that fiscal policy is not, at this time, a suitable instrument of short-run stabilisation. Attention should rather be focussed on medium-term structural budget consolidation, which was neglected during the expansion of the late eighties. On the other hand, we argue for monetary stimulation through a strong decrease of short-term interest rates, and propose the reference level of zero short-term real interest rates. 3. Turning to medium-run policies, we advocate two sets of measures, concerning respectively labour costs and investment. 3. a We note that high unemployment is heavily concentrated among unskilled workers. Moreover, we find evidence of a trend in the skilll composition of labour demand, which contains a declining proportion of unskilled jobs. These considerations justify investment in training and education. We believe that they also justify immediate measures aimed at reducing the cost of unskilled labour relative to the cost of skilled labour and of capital. An important element of labour costs consists in taxes and social insurance contributions, which drive a substantial wedge — 30 to 50 % in the EC member countries — between the cost of labour to employers on the one hand, take-home pay or the social opportunity cost of unskilled labour on the other hand. We argue that the time has come to reduce that wedge, and we propose exempting minimum wages from employers' contributions to social security. This may be done either by collecting such contributions only on that part of all wages that exceeds minimum wages ; or by introducing an exemption amounting to 100 % of these contributions at the minimum wage level but decreasing linearly to zero at twice that level. The first measure is very costly — of the order of 3.2 % of GDP on average in EC12, with substantial country differences. The second measure is much less costly, rather like 1.2% of GDP. In either case, substitute resources should be allocated to the social security. The CO2 tax currently under consideration by EC countries (with estimated receipts of the order of 1 to 1 .3 % of GDP) is a natural source. Raising the ceiling on VAT rates is another source. There is room for country- specific measures. Econometric simulations of labour tax exemptions in France and Belgium must be regarded as imprecise. Generally, they co...
Le commerce industriel de la France avec ses partenaires européens : Des avantages comparatifs aux performances individuelles des entreprises In: Economie et statistique, N°217-218, Janvier-Février 1989. La France dans la perspective du grand marché européen. pp. 63-69. Citer ce document / Cite this document : Abd-El-Rahman K,, Charpin Jean-Michel. Le commerce industriel de la France avec ses partenaires européens : Des avantages comparatifs aux performances individuelles des entreprises. In: Economie et statistique, N°217-218, Janvier-Février 1989. La France dans la perspective du grand marché européen. pp. 63-69. ResumenEl comercio industrial de Francia con sus socios europeos. Desde las ventajas comparativas hasta los resultados individuates de las empresas -El comercio industrial de Francia con sus socios europeos dépende de una lógica hibrida. Por un lado, las dotaciones en recursos de cada nación, su saber-hacer, sus contextos social, fiscal y monetario, son todos ellos elementos que intervienen para poder explicar los flujos comerciales. Pero, por otra parte, el mercado comunitario se distingue cada vez menos de los mercados nacionales internos en los que las empresas se hallan inmersas en el mismo entorno estructural y macroeconómico. En dicha situación, lo que va a influenciar los resultados del comercio exterior sera la capacidad individual de las empresas para adaptarse a la demanda, para producir de manera eficaz y para acaparar las economi'as de escala. Este movimiento que corrió parejo con los progresos de integración económica tiene todas las posibilidades de ser reactivado por la realización del Mercado Unico. Abstract Industrial Trade between France and its European Partners. Comparative Advantages and the Individual Results of Enterprises -Industrial trade between France and its european partners is based on a hybrid logic. On the one hand, the nations' individual resources, their know-how, their social, fiscal and monetary contexts all account for their commercial flows. However, on the other hand, the EEC market is less and less distinguishable from national home markets where enterprises are surrounded by the same structural and macroeconomic environment. As a result, the individual capacities of enterprises to adapt to demand, and to produce efficiently and on a large scale, have an effect on foreign trade. This evolution, which followed the development of their economic integration into the Common Market, will probably be given new momentum when Europe becomes one unique Market. Résumé Le commerce industriel de la France avec ses partenaires européens relève d'une logique hybride. D'un côté, les dotations en ressources de chaque nation, leurs savoir-faire, leurs contextes sociaux, fiscaux et monétaires sont autant d'éléments qui interviennent dans l'explication des flux commerciaux. Mais, d'un autre côté, le marché communautaire se distingue de moins en moins des marchés nationaux internes dans lesquels les entreprises baignent dans le même environnement structurel et macroéconomique. Ce so...
Statistical Information Revisited : Six Big Changes. Led by a growing demand, benefiting from its major role in the public debate, supported by technological progress, statistical information experiences big changes. Improved governance enables to consolidate the independence of production and dissemination of statistics from political and other external interference. International normalization is spreading, particularly in Europe. The traditional trade-off between surveys and administrative sources is shifting to the advantage of the latter ones. The internet modifies the conditions of dissemination and renews invoicing strategies. At the same time, the credibility of statistics is being questioned, in particular for inflation and real income measures, and the search for improved relevance pushes into going beyond present concepts of national accounts. By coping with these challenges, the professionals of statistical information will deserve the trust of users. Classification JEL : C10, C80
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