Context:Provisions of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act of 2010 (PPACA) expand Medicaid to all individuals in families earning less than 133 percent of the federal poverty level (FPL) and make available subsidies to uninsured lower-income Americans (133 to 400 percent of FPL) without access to employer-based coverage to purchase insurance in new exchanges. Since primary care physicians typically serve as the point of entry into the health care delivery system, an adequate supply of them is critical to meeting the anticipated increase in demand for medical care resulting from the expansion of coverage. This article provides state-level estimates of the anticipated increases in primary care utilization given the PPACA's provisions for expanded coverage. Methods:Using the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey, this article estimates a multivariate regression model of annual primary care utilization. Using the model estimates and state-level information regarding the number of uninsured, it predicts, by state, the change in primary care visits expected from the expanded coverage. Finally, the article predicts the number of primary care physicians needed to accommodate this change in utilization.Findings: This expanded coverage is predicted to increase by 2019 the number of annual primary care visits between 15.07 million and 24.26 million. Assuming stable levels of physicians' productivity, between 4,307 and 6,940 additional primary care physicians would be needed to accommodate this increase. Conclusions:The PPACA's health insurance expansion parameters are expected to significantly increase the use of primary care. Two strategies that policymakers may consider are creating stronger financial incentives to attract medical students to primary care and changing the delivery of care in ways that lead to operational improvements, higher throughput, and better quality of care.

Objectives The United States is one of only three countries worldwide with no national policy guaranteeing paid leave to employed women who give birth. While maternity leave has been linked to improved maternal and child outcomes in international contexts, up-to-date research evidence in the U.S. context is needed to inform current policy debates on paid family leave. Methods Using data from Listening to Mothers III, a national survey of women ages 18-45 who gave birth in 2011-2012, we conducted multivariate logistic regression to predict the likelihood of outcomes related to infant health, maternal physical and mental health, and maternal health behaviors by the use and duration of paid maternity leave. Results Use of paid and unpaid leave varied significantly by race/ethnicity and household income. Women who took paid maternity leave experienced a 47% decrease in the odds of re-hospitalizing their infants (95% CI 0.3, 1.0) and a 51% decrease in the odds of being re-hospitalized themselves (95% CI 0.3, 0.9) at 21 months postpartum, compared to women taking unpaid or no leave. They also had 1.8 times the odds of doing well with exercise (95% CI 1.1, 3.0) and stress management (95% CI 1.1, 2.8), compared to women taking only unpaid leave. Conclusions for Practice Paid maternity leave significantly predicts lower odds of maternal and infant re-hospitalization and higher odds of doing well with exercise and stress management. Policies aimed at expanding access to paid maternity and family leave may contribute toward reducing socio-demographic disparities in paid leave use and its associated health benefits.

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