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Today, the main concepts required for describing the dynamics of drainage in an entire urban area are known and models are available that can reasonably simulate the behaviour of the urban water system. Still, such integrated modelling is a complex exercise not only due to the sheer size of the model, but also due to the different modelling approaches that reflect the history of the sub-models used and of the purpose they were built for. The paper reviews the state of the art in deterministic modelling, outlines experiences and discusses problems and future developments.

The current state of knowledge regarding uncertainties in urban drainage models is poor. This is in part due to the lack of clarity in the way model uncertainty analyses are conducted and how the results are presented and used. There is a need for a common terminology and a conceptual framework for describing and estimating uncertainties in urban drainage models. Practical tools for the assessment of model uncertainties for a range of urban drainage models are also required to be developed. This paper, produced by the International Working Group on Data and Models, which works under the IWA/IAHR Joint Committee on Urban Drainage, is a contribution to the development of a harmonised framework for defining and assessing uncertainties in the field of urban drainage modelling. The sources of uncertainties in urban drainage models and their links are initially mapped out. This is followed by an evaluation of each source, including a discussion of its definition and an evaluation of methods that could be used to assess its overall importance. Finally, an approach for a Global Assessment of Modelling Uncertainties (GAMU) is proposed, which presents a new framework for mapping and quantifying sources of uncertainty in urban drainage models.