Sugarcane yellow leaf virus, the causal agent of yellow leaf, is transmitted from plant to plant by aphids. Understanding and evaluating the epidemic risks due to spread of yellow leaf by aphids is an important feature for sugarcane production. Four distinct sugarcane trials were set up with disease-free plants to study the relationship between spread of yellow leaf, the vector dynamics and environmental conditions that may favour yellow leaf epidemics. The study was performed by surveys of vector populations and determination of plant infections. Sugarcane cultivar SP71-6163, highly susceptible to yellow leaf, was analyzed spatially at different dates in all four trials and compared to commercial cultivars in two of the four trials. These surveys allowed us to identify a correlation between the aphid dynamics in the field and yellow leaf progress. Additionally, a negative correlation was found between rainfall during the first weeks after transferring sugarcane plants to the field and aphid dispersal within the field. This later result revealed an impact of rainfall on aphid invasion and subsequent plant infection by SCYLV. If aphids are the key factor for disease spread, plant response varied also according to cultivar resistance with high variation depending on rain conditions.
The spatio-temporal dynamics of disease spread provide an area of acute scientific interest but substantial analytic challenges. Analytic approaches need to draw from current knowledge of disease systems yet be flexible enough to provide targeted inference without restrictive assumptions. We explore this balance in detail with respect to the observed pattern of spread of sugarcane yellow leaf virus, the causal agent of yellow leaf disease. This disease affects cultivated sugarcane plants and spreads via an aphid vector (Melanaphis sacchari). The system is of considerable economic interest, but presents several analytic complications. First, the plants begin as well separated individuals that grow into large plants with overlapping leaf canopies enabling increased vector access between neighbouring plants. The overlap between neighbouring plants first occurs within rows and then extends between rows, presenting another interesting spatial component to consider when modelling the propagation of infection. Second, the vector initially flies between plants but at some point sheds wings and shifts to walking between plants. We are particularly interested in how these two features of the system and their interrelation may impact the spatial spread of disease over time. In addition, we also explore the impact of potential immigration of infected vectors from outside of the study area. We treat our observed cane field as a spatial grid with regular spacing between rows and smaller spacing within rows. Our data consist of observed disease status of each of 1643 plants at each of six time points. We provide descriptive summaries of the temporal evolution of spatial pattern in infection, then propose hierarchical models to describe the pattern and capture the influence of the ecological and environmental factors listed above. (Résumé d'auteur
Sugarcane (Saccharum interspecific hybrids) is grown worldwide, primarily in tropical and subtropical regions. Sugarcane is the major source of sugar produced worldwide and sugar demands are constantly increasing. Sugarcane is the host of many pathogens, including at least 24 different virus species, several of which affect sugarcane plant growth and sugar yields (Rott et al., 2000).Sugarcane-infecting viruses with genomic sequences reported to date belong to the virus families Betaflexiviridae, Caulimoviridae,
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