SummaryThe understanding of the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions dimension in discussing the future of marine fuels makes it important to advance the current life cycle assessment (LCA) practice in this context. Previous LCA studies of marine fuels rely on general LCA models such as GREET and JEC well-to-wheels study. These models do not fully capture the various methane losses in the fuel supply chain. The primary goal of this LCA study is to compare the GHG emissions of heavy fuel oil and marine gas oil produced from Saudi crude oil to liquefied natural gas (LNG) in different global regions. A sensitivity analysis was performed to show how results may vary with non-Saudi crudes. A secondary goal was to advance LCA of marine fuels by utilizing, for the first time, a set of bottom-up engineering models that enable detailed analysis of specific oil and gas projects worldwide. The results show particular cases where LNG use in marine applications has a significant countereffect in terms of climate change compared to conventional marine fuels produced from a lowcarbon-intensity crude oil. When the results are calculated based on a 20-versus 100-year methane global warming potential, LNG appears noncompetitive for climate impact in marine applications.
A pressing challenge facing the aviation industry is to aggressively reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the face of increasing demand for aviation fuels. Climate goals such as carbon-neutral growth from 2020 onwards require continuous improvements in technology, operations, infrastructure, and most importantly, reductions in aviation fuel life cycle emissions. The Carbon Offsetting Scheme for International Aviation of the International Civil Aviation Organization provides a global market-based measure to group all possible emissions reduction measures into a joint program. Using a bottom-up, engineering-based modeling approach, this study provides the first estimates of life cycle greenhouse gas emissions from petroleum jet fuel on regional and global scales. Here we show that not all petroleum jet fuels are the same as the country-level life cycle emissions of petroleum jet fuels range from 81.1 to 94.8 gCO2e MJ−1, with a global volume-weighted average of 88.7 gCO2e MJ−1. These findings provide a high-resolution baseline against which sustainable aviation fuel and other emissions reduction opportunities can be prioritized to achieve greater emissions reductions faster.
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