Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. Terms of use: Documents in Aggregate Fluctuations and International Migration AbstractTraditional theories of integration such as the optimum currency area approach attribute a prominent role to international labour mobility in coping with relative economic fluctuations between countries. However, recent studies on international migration have overlooked the role of short-run factors in explaining international migration flows. This paper aims to fill that gap. We first derive a model of optimal migration choice based on an extension of the traditional Random Utility Model. Our model predicts that an improvement in the economic activity in a potential destination country relative to any origin country may trigger some additional migration flows on top of the impact exerted by long-run factors such as the wage differential or the bilateral distance. Compiling a dataset with annual gross migration flows between 30 developed origin and destination countries over the 1980-2010 period, we empirically test the magnitude of the effect of short-run factors on bilateral flows. Our econometric results indicate that relative aggregate fluctuations and employment rates affect the intensity of bilateral migration flows. We also provide compelling evidence that the Schengen agreements and the introduction of the euro significantly raised the international mobility of workers between the member countries.JEL-Code: F220, O150.

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Standard horizontal foreign direct investment (FDI) models predict substitutability between FDI and exports in light of the proximity‐concentration trade‐off, nonetheless, empirical literature finds, almost invariably, a complementarity effect. We show that given the multi‐product nature of multinational enterprises both effects coexist at the firm‐level, with a substitutability for some products and a complementarity for others, explaining why the empirical substitutability relation has been so scarce even at the level of the firm. We use detailed French firm‐level data over 2002 and 2009 to show that the question of whether FDI and exports are complements or substitutes depends on whether the product belongs to the core competency of the firm and the size of demand in the destination market. We find evidence of the substitutability predicted by standard horizontal FDI models, taking place only for the best performing products of the firm and in high‐demand markets. In turn, vertical linkages and proximity advantages related to FDI's foreign presence generate exports of intermediates and products that are further away of the firms' core competency. This complementarity jeopardises the substitutability when aggregating all products of the firm, resulting on an average null net effect of FDI on exports in high‐demand countries.

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The French trade balance deteriorated almost continuously from the late 1990s to the early 2010s. At the macroeconomic level, French export market share deteriorated while domestic sales kept pace with domestic demand. Does this assessment apply to individual firms? Using microlevel data for French industrial firms over the period 2002–12, we explore the link between domestic and export sales. We show that export and domestic sales have a tendency, albeit slight, to move in opposite directions. This may be due to factors such as deliberate strategies to target a specific market or the presence of production constraints. Addressing the resulting endogeneity issue, our analysis shows that a positive demand shock in the domestic market also leads to an increase in exports. In particular, a 10% increase in domestic demand leads to a 4% increase in exports. This complementarity between markets seems to be driven by small firms and could reflect the existence of liquidity constraints. Increased sales in one market could lessen these constraints by facilitating funding for company development in the export market.