Climate change and global warming are burning issues, which significantly threat agriculture and global food security. Change in solar radiation, temperature and precipitation will influence the change in crop yields and hence economy of agriculture. It is possible to understand the phenomenon of climate change on crop production and to develop adaptation strategies for sustainability in food production, using a suitable crop simulation model. CERES-Rice model of DSSAT v4.0 was used to simulate the rice yield of the region under climate change scenarios using the historical weather data at Nepal Agriculture Research Council (NARC) Tarahara (1989)(1990)(1991)(1992)(1993)(1994)(1995)(1996)(1997)(1998)(1999)(2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008). The Crop Model was calibrated using the experimental crop data, climate data and soil data for two years (2000)(2001) and was validated by using the data of the year 2002 at NARC Tarahara. In this study various scenarios were undertaken to analyze the rice yield. The change in values of weather parameters due to climate change and its effects on the rice yield were studied. It was observed that increase in maximum temperature up to 2°C and 1°C in minimum temperature have positive impact on rice yield but beyond that temperature it was observed negative impact in both cases of paddy production in ambient temperature. Similarly, it was observed that increased in mean temperature, have negative impacts on rice yield. The impact of solar radiation in rice yield was observed positive during the time of study period. Adjustments were made in the fertilizer rate, plant density per square meter, planting date and application of water rate to investigate suitable agronomic options for adaptation under the future climate change scenarios. Highest yield was obtained when the water application was increased up to 3 mm depth and nitrogen application rate was 140 kg/ha respectively.
Any change in climate will have implications for climate-sensitive systems such as agriculture, forestry and some other natural resources. Changes in solar radiation, temperature and precipitation will produce changes in crop yields and hence economics of agriculture. It is possible to understand the phenomenon of climate change on crop production and to develop adaptation strategies for sustainability in food production, using a suitable crop simulation model. CERES-Maize model of DSSAT v4.0 was used to simulate the maize yield of the region under climate change scenarios using the historical weather data at Kharagpur (1977-2007), Damdam (1974-2003) and Purulia (1986-2000), West Bengal, India. The model was calibrated using the crop experimental data, climate data and soil data for two years (1996-1997) and was validated by using the data of the year 1998 at Kharagpur. The change in values of weather parameters due to climate change and its effects on the maize crop growth and yield was studied. It was observed that increase in mean temperature and leaf area index have negative impacts on maize yield. When the maximum leaf area index increased, the grain yield was found to be decreased. Increase in CO2 concentration with each degree incremental temperature decreased the grain yield but increase in CO2 concentration with fixed temperature increased the maize yield. Adjustments were made in the date of sowing to investigate suitable option for adaptation under the future climate change scenarios. Highest yield was obtained when the sowing date was advanced by a week at Kharagpur and Damdam whereas for Purulia, the experimental date of sowing was found to be beneficial.
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