Combining granular daily data on temperatures across the continental United States with detailed establishment data from 1990 to 2015, we study the causal impact of temperature shocks on establishment sales and productivity. Using a large sample yielding precise estimates, we do not find evidence that temperature exposures significantly affect establishment-level sales or productivity, including among industries traditionally classified as “heat sensitive.” At the firm level, we find that temperature exposures aggregated across firm establishments are generally unrelated to sales, productivity, and profitability. Our results support existing findings of a tenuous relation between temperature and aggregate economic growth in rich countries.

This study shows that shifts in political climate influence stock prices. As the party in power changes, there are systematic changes in the industry-level composition of investor portfolios, which weaken arbitrage forces and generate predictable patterns in industry returns. A trading strategy that attempts to exploit demand-based return predictability generates an annualized risk-adjusted performance of six percent during the 1939 to 2011 period. This evidence of predictability spans 17-27% of the market and is stronger during periods of greater political awareness. Our demand-based predictability pattern is distinct from cash-flow based predictability identified in the recent literature.

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Using multiple U.S. and European data sources, we show that observed physical attributes are related to participation in financial markets. Specifically, we find that individuals who are relatively tall and of normal weight are more likely to hold stocks in their financial portfolios. We consider several potential mechanisms that could drive the relation between physical attributes and portfolio decisions. We find that teenage social experiences as well as genetic and prenatal endowments that are fixed at birth are the two channels through which height affects financial decisions. Furthermore, we find that the relation between body mass index and portfolio decisions is largely driven by education and race.