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While Digital contact tracing (DCT) has been argued to be a valuable complement to manual tracing in the containment of COVID-19, no empirical evidence of its effectiveness is available to date. Here, we report the results of a 4-week population-based controlled experiment that took place in La Gomera (Canary Islands, Spain) between June and July 2020, where we assessed the epidemiological impact of the Spanish DCT app Radar Covid. After a substantial communication campaign, we estimate that at least 33% of the population adopted the technology and further showed relatively high adherence and compliance as well as a quick turnaround time. The app detects about 6.3 close-contacts per primary simulated infection, a significant percentage being contacts with strangers, although the spontaneous follow-up rate of these notified cases is low. Overall, these results provide experimental evidence of the potential usefulness of DCT during an epidemic outbreak in a real population.

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Ordinal classification or ordinal regression are classification problems in which the labels have an ordered arrangement between them. Due to this order, alternative performance evaluation metrics are need to be used in order to consider the magnitude of errors. This paper presents an study of the use of a multi-objective optimization approach in the context of ordinal classification. We contribute a study of ordinal classification performance metrics, and propose a new performance metric, the Maximum Mean Absolute Error (MMAE). MMAE considers per-class distribution of patterns and the magnitude of the errors, both issues being crucial for ordinal regression problems. In addition we empirically show that some of the performance metrics are competitive objectives, which justifies the use of multi-objective optimization strategies. In our case, a multi-objective evolutionary algorithm optimizes a artificial neural network ordinal model with different pairs of metrics combinations, and we conclude that the pair of the Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and the proposed MMAE is the most favorable. A study of the relationship between the metrics of this proposal is performed, and the graphical representation in the 2 dimensional space where the search of the evolutionary algorithm takes place is analyzed. The results obtained show a good classification performance, opening new lines of research in the evaluation and model selection of ordinal classifiers.

Thickness of the melanoma is the most important factor associated with survival in patients with melanoma. It is most commonly reported as a measurement of depth given in millimeters (mm) and computed by means of pathological examination after a biopsy of the suspected lesion. In order to avoid the use of an invasive method in the estimation of the thickness of melanoma before surgery, we propose a computational image analysis system from dermoscopic images. The proposed feature extraction is based on the clinical findings that correlate certain characteristics present in dermoscopic images and tumor depth. Two supervised classification schemes are proposed: a binary classification in which melanomas are classified into thin or thick, and a three-class scheme (thin, intermediate, and thick). The performance of several nominal classification methods, including a recent interpretable method combining logistic regression with artificial neural networks (Logistic regression using Initial variables and Product Units, LIPU), is compared. For the three-class problem, a set of ordinal classification methods (considering ordering relation between the three classes) is included. For the binary case, LIPU outperforms all the other methods with an accuracy of 77.6%, while, for the second scheme, although LIPU reports the highest overall accuracy, the ordinal classification methods achieve a better balance between the performances of all classes.

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Ordinal classification refers to classification problems in which the classes have a natural order imposed on them because of the nature of the concept studied. Some ordinal classification approaches perform a projection from the input space to 1-dimensional (latent) space that is partitioned into a sequence of intervals (one for each class). Class identity of a novel input pattern is then decided based on the interval its projection falls into. This projection is trained only indirectly as part of the overall model fitting. As with any latent model fitting, direct construction hints one may have about the desired form of the latent model can prove very useful for obtaining high quality models. The key idea of this paper is to construct such a projection model directly, using insights about the class distribution obtained from pairwise distance calculations. The proposed approach is extensively evaluated with eight nominal and ordinal classifiers methods, ten real world ordinal classification datasets, and four different performance measures.The new methodology obtained the best results in average ranking when considering three of the performance metrics, although significant differences are found only for some of the methods. Also, after observing other methods internal behaviour in the latent space, we conclude that the internal projection do not fully reflect the intra-class behaviour of the patterns. Our method is intrinsically simple, intuitive and easily understandable, yet, highly competitive with state-of-the-art approaches to ordinal classification.