SUMMARYObjective: Determine incidence of posttraumatic seizure (PTS) following traumatic brain injury (TBI) among individuals with moderate-to-severe TBI requiring rehabilitation and surviving at least 5 years. Methods: Using the prospective TBI Model Systems National Database, we calculated PTS incidence during acute hospitalization, and at years 1, 2, and 5 postinjury in a continuously followed cohort enrolled from 1989 to 2000 (n = 795). Incidence rates were stratified by risk factors, and adjusted relative risk (RR) was calculated. Late PTS associations with immediate (<24 h), early (24 h-7 day), or late seizures (>7 day) versus no seizure prior to discharge from acute hospitalization was also examined. Results: PTS incidence during acute hospitalization was highest immediately (<24 h) post-TBI (8.9%). New onset PTS incidence was greatest between discharge from inpatient rehabilitation and year 1 (9.2%). Late PTS cumulative incidence from injury to year 1 was 11.9%, and reached 20.5% by year 5. Immediate/early PTS RR (2.04) was increased for those undergoing surgical evacuation procedures. Late PTS RR was significantly greater for individuals who self-identified as a race other than black/white (year 1 RR = 2.22), and for black individuals (year 5 RR = 3.02) versus white individuals. Late PTS was greater for individuals with subarachnoid hemorrhage (year 1 RR = 2.06) and individuals age 23-32 (year 5 RR = 2.43) and 33-44 (year 5 RR = 3.02). Late PTS RR years 1 and 5 was significantly higher for those undergoing surgical evacuation procedures (RR: 3.05 and 2.72, respectively).

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SUMMARYObjective: Posttraumatic seizures (PTS) are well-recognized acute and chronic complications of traumatic brain injury (TBI). Risk factors have been identified, but considerable variability in who develops PTS remains. Existing PTS prognostic models are not widely adopted for clinical use and do not reflect current trends in injury, diagnosis, or care. We aimed to develop and internally validate preliminary prognostic regression models to predict PTS during acute care hospitalization, and at year 1 and year 2 postinjury. Methods: Prognostic models predicting PTS during acute care hospitalization and year 1 and year 2 post-injury were developed using a recent (2011)(2012)(2013)(2014) cohort from the TBI Model Systems National Database. Potential PTS predictors were selected based on previous literature and biologic plausibility. Bivariable logistic regression identified variables with a p-value < 0.20 that were used to fit initial prognostic models. Multivariable logistic regression modeling with backward-stepwise elimination was used to determine reduced prognostic models and to internally validate using 1,000 bootstrap samples. Fit statistics were calculated, correcting for overfitting (optimism). Results: The prognostic models identified sex, craniotomy, contusion load, and preinjury limitation in learning/remembering/concentrating as significant PTS predictors during acute hospitalization. Significant predictors of PTS at year 1 were subdural hematoma (SDH), contusion load, craniotomy, craniectomy, seizure during acute hospitalization, duration of posttraumatic amnesia, preinjury mental health treatment/ psychiatric hospitalization, and preinjury incarceration. Year 2 significant predictors