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Studies of bird phenology can help elucidate the effects of climate change on wildlife species but observations over broad spatial scales are difficult without a network of observers. Recently, networks of citizen volunteers have begun to report first arrival dates for many migratory species. Potential benefits are substantial (e.g., understanding ecological processes at broad spatial and temporal scales) if known biases of citizen data reporting are identified and addressed. One potential source of bias in bird phenology studies is the tendency for more "first" migratory arrivals to be reported on weekends than on weekdays. We investigated weekend bias in data reporting for five common bird species in North America (Baltimore Oriole, Icterus galbula; Barn Swallow, Hirundo rustica; Chimney Swift, Chaetura pelagica; Purple Martin, Progne subis; and Ruby-throated Hummingbird, Archilochus colubris), and assessed whether this bias affected mean arrival dates reported using data from historical (1880-1969; N = 25,555) and recent (1997-2010; N = 63,149) Citizen Science databases. We found a greater percentage of first arrivals reported on weekends and small but significant differences in mean arrival dates (approximately 0.5 days) for four of five species. Comparing time periods, this weekend bias decreased from 33.7 % and five species in the historical time period to 32 % and three species in the recent, perhaps related to changes in human activity patterns. Our results indicate that weekend bias in citizen data reporting is decreasing over time in North America and including a 'day of week' term in models examining changes in phenology could help make conclusions more robust.

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Climate change has been of high interest to both the scientific community and the public at large since the phenomenon was first suggested. Subsequently, and with growing evidence of its impending ramifications, numerous studies have attempted to illuminate climate change impacts on bird migration. Migration is a key event in the annual cycle in the reproductive success of birds, and changes in migration in response to climate may indicate that species populations are at risk. Previous studies report earlier arrival dates in response to climate change in many bird species, although specific mechanisms are often difficult to explain at broad spatial and temporal scales. Using a newly revived dataset of historical migration cards for over 870 species and spanning 90 years throughout North America, we are developing an historical baseline of bird arrival dates to compare with contemporary records. Here we chronicle the history and reemergence of the North American Bird Phenology Program. We present two case studies illustrating how data from this program has been used to model historical arrival dates of Ruby-Throated Hummingbird (Archilochus colubris) and Purple Martin (Progne subis) throughout eastern North America. Our results show the importance of considering spatial and temporal variability in understanding patterns of bird spring arrivals.

Please cite this article as: Arab, A., Courter, J.R., Zelt, J., A spatio-temporal comparison of avian migration phenology using Citizen Science data. Spatial Statistics (2016), http://dx. AbstractThe effects of climate change have wide-ranging impacts on wildlife species and recent studies indicate that birds' spring arrival dates are advancing in response to changes in global climates.In this paper, we propose a spatio-temporal approach for comparing avian first arrival data for multiple species. As an example, we analyze spring arrival data for two long-distance migrants (Ruby-throated Hummingbird Archilochus colubris; and Purple Martin Progne subis) in eastern North America from 2001-2010 using Citizen Science data. The proposed approach provides re-1 *Manuscript Click here to view linked References searchers with a tool to compare mean arrival dates while accounting for spatial and temporal variability. Our results show that on average, Purple Martins arrive 29.95 to 31.84 days earlier than Ruby-throated Hummingbirds, but after accounting for this overall difference, spatial nuances exist whereby martins arrive earlier in the southern United States and migrate northward at a slower rate than hummingbirds. Differences were also noted in how climate and weather variables such as the North Atlantic Oscillation index, winter temperature, winter-spring spring precipitation, sampling effort, and altitude impacted migration dates. Our method may easily be generalized to analyze a broad range of temporal and spatial Citizen Scientists data to help better understand the ecological impacts of climate change.

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