Condition indices are commonly used in an attempt to link body condition of birds to ecological variables of interest, including demographic attributes such as survival and reproduction. Most indices are based on body mass adjusted for structural body size, calculated as simple ratios or residuals from regressions. However, condition indices are often applied without confirming their predictive value (i.e., without being validated against measured values of fat and protein), which we term 'unverified' use. We evaluated the ability of a number of unverified indices frequently found in the literature to predict absolute and proportional levels of fat and protein across five species of waterfowl. Among indices we considered, those accounting for body size never predicted absolute protein more precisely than body mass, however, some indices improved predictability of fat, although the form of the best index varied by species. Further, the gain in precision by using a condition index to predict either absolute or percent fat was minimal (rise in r 2 50.13), and in many cases model fit was actually reduced. Our data agrees with previous assertions that the assumption that indices provide more precise indicators of body condition than body mass alone is often invalid. We strongly discourage the use of unverified indices, because subjectively selecting indices likely does little to improve precision and might in fact decrease predictability relative to using body mass alone.

We used observations of individually marked female black brant geese (Branta bernicla nigricans; brant) at three wintering lagoons on the Pacific coast of Baja California-Laguna San Ignacio (LSI), Laguna Ojo de Liebre (LOL), and Bahía San Quintín (BSQ)-and the Tutakoke River breeding colony in Alaska to assess hypotheses about carryover effects on breeding and distribution of individuals among wintering areas. We estimated transition probabilities from wintering locations to breeding and nonbreeding by using multistratum robust-design capture-mark-recapture models. We also examined the effect of breeding on migration to wintering areas to assess the hypothesis that individuals in family groups occupied higher-quality wintering locations. We used 4,538 unique female brant in our analysis of the relationship between winter location and breeding probability. All competitive models of breeding probability contained additive effects of wintering location and the 1997-1998 El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event on probability of breeding. Probability of breeding in non-ENSO years was 0.98 ± 0.02, 0.68 ± 0.04, and 0.91 ± 0.11 for females wintering at BSQ, LOL, and LSI, respectively. After the 1997-1998 ENSO event, breeding probability was between 2% (BSQ) and 38% (LOL) lower than in other years. Individuals that bred had the highest probability of migrating the next fall to the wintering area producing the highest probability of breeding.

Climate in low-latitude wintering areas may influence temperate and high-latitude breeding populations of birds, but demonstrations of such relationships have been rare because of difficulties in linking wintering with breeding populations. We used long-term aerial surveys in Mexican wintering areas and breeding areas in Alaska, USA, to assess numbers of Black Brant (Branta bernicla nigricans; hereafter brant) on their principal wintering and breeding area in El Niño and non-El Niño years. We used Pollock's robust design to directly estimate probability of breeding and apparent annual survival of individually marked brant at the Tutakoke River (TR) colony, Alaska, in each year between 1988 and 2001. Fewer brant wintered in Mexico during every El Niño event since 1965. Fewer brant were observed on the principal breeding area following each El Niño since surveys began in 1985. Probability of breeding was negatively related to January sea surface temperature along the subtropical coast of North America during the preceding winter. Between 23% (five-year-olds or older) and 30% (three-year-olds) fewer brant nested in 1998 following the strong El Niño event in the winter of 1997-1998 than in non-El Niño years. This finding is consistent with life history theory, which predicts that longer-lived species preserve adult survival at the expense of reproduction. Oceanographic conditions off Baja California, apparently by their effect on Zostera marina (eelgrass), strongly influence winter distribution of brant geese and their reproduction (but not survival), which in turn affects ecosystem dynamics in Alaska.

Recent declines in black brant (Branta bernicla nigricans) are likely the result of low recruitment. In geese, recruitment is strongly affected by habitat conditions experienced by broods because gosling growth rates are indicative of forage conditions during brood rearing and strongly influence future survival and productivity. In 2006–2008, we studied gosling growth at 3 of the 4 major colonies on the Yukon‐Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska. Estimates of age‐adjusted gosling mass at the 2 southern colonies (approx. 30% of the world population of breeding black brant) was low (gosling mass at 30.5 days ranged 346.7 ± 42.5 g to 627.1 ± 15.9 g) in comparison to a third colony (gosling mass at 30.5 days ranged 640.0 ± 8.3 g to 821.6 ± 13.6 g) and to most previous estimates of age‐adjusted mass of brant goslings. Thus, our results are consistent with the hypothesis that poor gosling growth is negatively influencing the brant population. There are 2 non‐mutually exclusive explanations for the apparent growth rates we observed. First, the population decline may have been caused by density‐independent factors and habitat capacity has declined along with the population as a consequence of the unique foraging feedback between brant and their grazing habitats. Alternatively, a reduction in habitat capacity, as a result of changes to the grazing system, may have negatively influenced gosling growth, which is contributing to the overall long‐term population decline. We found support for both explanations. For colonies over habitat capacity we recommend management to enhance foraging habitat, whereas for colonies below habitat capacity we recommend management to increase nesting productivity. © 2010 The Wildlife Society.

Effective management of migratory animals requires an understanding of individual movement patterns throughout the annual cycle. We used satellite transmitters to track adult Barrow's Goldeneye (Bucephala islandica) captured at five wintering sites, one breeding site, and one molting site from across the species' geographic range in western North America. The data were analyzed to assess the strength of migratory connectivity and determine latitudinal and sex effects on migration phenology. At the range-wide scale, migratory connectivity was high; cluster analyses showed subpopulations aggregated at each stage of the annual cycle. Barrow's Goldeneye from all wintering latitudes traveled north and east to breed. Compared to females, males traveled farther north to molt and consequently traveled longer distances when returning to their wintering areas. Wintering latitude had little effect on migration distance but a large effect on the phenology of migration. Individuals that wintered at northern latitudes arrived on their wintering areas earlier and departed later than individuals that wintered farther south. Individuals that wintered at northern latitudes also arrived on and left their inland breeding areas later but left their molting sites earlier than individuals that wintered farther south. Sex also influenced the phenology of migration at all sites: males left their mates during incubation and consequently spent less time on breeding areas and more time on their molting and fall staging areas. The high level of migratory connectivity observed in this study suggests that the subpopulation of Barrow's Goldeneye in south-central Alaska is demographically independent from subpopulations in southeast Alaska and British Columbia, and could be managed separately. Connectivité migratoire et variation de la phénologie de migration au sein de la population du Pacifique du Garrot d'Islande (Bucephala islandica)RÉSUMÉ. Une gestion efficace de la faune migratrice passe par une compréhension de la tendance des déplacements individuels tout au long du cycle annuel. Au moyen d'émetteurs satellites, nous avons suivi des Garrots d'Islande (Bucephala islandica) adultes capturés à cinq sites d'hivernage, un site de reproduction et un site de mue dans l'ensemble de l'aire de répartition géographique de l'espèce dans l'Ouest de l'Amérique du Nord. Nous avons analysé les données de façon à évaluer la force de la connectivité migratoire et à déterminer les effets de la latitude et du sexe sur la phénologie de migration. À l'échelle de l'aire de répartition, la connectivité migratoire était élevée; les analyses par grappes ont montré que les sous-populations se regroupaient à chaque étape du cycle annuel. Les Garrots d'Islande de diverses latitudes d'hivernage ont voyagé vers le nord et l'est pour se reproduire. Comparativement aux femelles, les mâles se sont déplacés plus au nord pour muer et ont donc parcouru de plus grandes distances pour retourner dans leurs zones d'hivernage. La latitude d'hivernage a eu peu d'effets sur la dis...