To extend understanding of the genetic architecture and molecular basis of type 2 diabetes (T2D), we conducted a meta-analysis of genetic variants on the Metabochip involving 34,840 cases and 114,981 controls, overwhelmingly of European descent. We identified ten previously unreported T2D susceptibility loci, including two demonstrating sex-differentiated association. Genome-wide analyses of these data are consistent with a long tail of further common variant loci explaining much of the variation in susceptibility to T2D. Exploration of the enlarged set of susceptibility loci implicates several processes, including CREBBP-related transcription, adipocytokine signalling and cell cycle regulation, in diabetes pathogenesis.

The genetic architecture of common traits, including the number, frequency, and effect sizes of inherited variants that contribute to individual risk, has been long debated. Genome-wide association studies have identified scores of common variants associated with type 2 diabetes, but in aggregate, these explain only a fraction of heritability. To test the hypothesis that lower-frequency variants explain much of the remainder, the GoT2D and T2D-GENES consortia performed whole genome sequencing in 2,657 Europeans with and without diabetes, and exome sequencing in a total of 12,940 subjects from five ancestral groups. To increase statistical power, we expanded sample size via genotyping and imputation in a further 111,548 subjects. Variants associated with type 2 diabetes after sequencing were overwhelmingly common and most fell within regions previously identified by genome-wide association studies. Comprehensive enumeration of sequence variation is necessary to identify functional alleles that provide important clues to disease pathophysiology, but large-scale sequencing does not support a major role for lower-frequency variants in predisposition to type 2 diabetes.

To further understanding of the genetic basis of type 2 diabetes (T2D) susceptibility, we aggregated published meta-analyses of genome-wide association studies (GWAS) including 26,488 cases and 83,964 controls of European, East Asian, South Asian, and Mexican and Mexican American ancestry. We observed significant excess in directional consistency of T2D risk alleles across ancestry groups, even at SNPs demonstrating only weak evidence of association. By following up the strongest signals of association from the trans-ethnic meta-analysis in an additional 21,491 cases and 55,647 controls of European ancestry, we identified seven novel T2D susceptibility loci. Furthermore, we observed considerable improvements in fine-mapping resolution of common variant association signals at several T2D susceptibility loci. These observations highlight the benefits of trans-ethnic GWAS for the discovery and characterisation of complex trait loci, and emphasize an exciting opportunity to extend insight into the genetic architecture and pathogenesis of human diseases across populations of diverse ancestry.

Loss-of-function mutations protective against human disease provide in vivo validation of therapeutic targets1,2,3, yet none are described for type 2 diabetes (T2D). Through sequencing or genotyping ~150,000 individuals across five ethnicities, we identified 12 rare protein-truncating variants in SLC30A8, which encodes an islet zinc transporter (ZnT8)4 and harbors a common variant (p.Trp325Arg) associated with T2D risk, glucose, and proinsulin levels5–7. Collectively, protein-truncating variant carriers had 65% reduced T2D risk (p=1.7×10−6), and non-diabetic Icelandic carriers of a frameshift variant (p.Lys34SerfsX50) demonstrated reduced glucose levels (−0.17 s.d., p=4.6×10−4). The two most common protein-truncating variants (p.Arg138X and p.Lys34SerfsX50) individually associate with T2D protection and encode unstable ZnT8 proteins. Previous functional study of SLC30A8 suggested reduced zinc transport increases T2D risk8,9, yet phenotypic heterogeneity was observed in rodent Slc30a8 knockouts10–15. Contrastingly, loss-of-function mutations in humans provide strong evidence that SLC30A8 haploinsufficiency protects against T2D, proposing ZnT8 inhibition as a therapeutic strategy in T2D prevention.

We aggregated coding variant data for 81,412 type 2 diabetes cases and 370,832 controls of diverse ancestry, identifying 40 coding variant association signals (p<2.2×10−7): of these, 16 map outside known risk loci. We make two important observations. First, only five of these signals are driven by low-frequency variants: even for these, effect sizes are modest (odds ratio ≤1.29). Second, when we used large-scale genome-wide association data to fine-map the associated variants in their regional context, accounting for the global enrichment of complex trait associations in coding sequence, compelling evidence for coding variant causality was obtained for only 16 signals. At 13 others, the associated coding variants clearly represent “false leads” with potential to generate erroneous mechanistic inference. Coding variant associations offer a direct route to biological insight for complex diseases and identification of validated therapeutic targets: however, appropriate mechanistic inference requires careful specification of their causal contribution to disease predisposition.

We performed fine-mapping of 39 established type 2 diabetes (T2D) loci in 27,206 cases and 57,574 controls of European ancestry. We identified 49 distinct association signals at these loci, including five mapping in/near KCNQ1. “Credible sets” of variants most likely to drive each distinct signal mapped predominantly to non-coding sequence, implying that T2D association is mediated through gene regulation. Credible set variants were enriched for overlap with FOXA2 chromatin immunoprecipitation binding sites in human islet and liver cells, including at MTNR1B, where fine-mapping implicated rs10830963 as driving T2D association. We confirmed that this T2D-risk allele increases FOXA2-bound enhancer activity in islet- and liver-derived cells. We observed allele-specific differences in NEUROD1 binding in islet-derived cells, consistent with evidence that the T2D-risk allele increases islet MTNR1B expression. Our study demonstrates how integration of genetic and genomic information can define molecular mechanisms through which variants underlying association signals exert their effects on disease.

Next-generation sequencing technologies are making it possible to study the role of rare variants in human disease. Many studies balance statistical power with cost-effectiveness by (a) sampling from phenotypic extremes and (b) utilizing a two-stage design. Two-stage designs include a broad-based discovery phase and selection of a subset of potential causal genes/variants to be further examined in independent samples. We evaluate three parameters: first, the gain in statistical power due to extreme sampling to discover causal variants; second, the informativeness of initial (Phase I) association statistics to select genes/variants for follow-up; third, the impact of extreme and random sampling in (Phase 2) replication. We present a quantitative method to select individuals from the phenotypic extremes of a binary trait, and simulate disease association studies under a variety of sample sizes and sampling schemes. First, we find that while studies sampling from extremes have excellent power to discover rare variants, they have limited power to associate them to phenotype—suggesting high false-negative rates for upcoming studies. Second, consistent with previous studies, we find that the effect sizes estimated in these studies are expected to be systematically larger compared with the overall population effect size; in a well-cited lipids study, we estimate the reported effect to be twofold larger. Third, replication studies require large samples from the general population to have sufficient power; extreme sampling could reduce the required sample size as much as fourfold. Our observations offer practical guidance for the design and interpretation of studies that utilize extreme sampling.

Aims/hypothesisThe aims of this study were to evaluate systematically the predictive power of comprehensive metabolomics profiles in predicting the future risk of type 2 diabetes, and to identify a panel of the most predictive metabolic markers.MethodsWe applied an unbiased systems medicine approach to mine metabolite combinations that provide added value in predicting the future incidence of type 2 diabetes beyond known risk factors. We performed mass spectrometry-based targeted, as well as global untargeted, metabolomics, measuring a total of 568 metabolites, in a Finnish cohort of 543 non-diabetic individuals from the Botnia Prospective Study, which included 146 individuals who progressed to type 2 diabetes by the end of a 10 year follow-up period. Multivariate logistic regression was used to assess statistical associations, and regularised least-squares modelling was used to perform machine learning-based risk classification and marker selection. The predictive performance of the machine learning models and marker panels was evaluated using repeated nested cross-validation, and replicated in an independent French cohort of 1044 individuals including 231 participants who progressed to type 2 diabetes during a 9 year follow-up period in the DESIR (Data from an Epidemiological Study on the Insulin Resistance Syndrome) study.ResultsNine metabolites were negatively associated (potentially protective) and 25 were positively associated with progression to type 2 diabetes. Machine learning models based on the entire metabolome predicted progression to type 2 diabetes (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, AUC = 0.77) significantly better than the reference model based on clinical risk factors alone (AUC = 0.68; DeLong’s p = 0.0009). The panel of metabolic markers selected by the machine learning-based feature selection also significantly improved the predictive performance over the reference model (AUC = 0.78; p = 0.00019; integrated discrimination improvement, IDI = 66.7%). This approach identified novel predictive biomarkers, such as α-tocopherol, bradykinin hydroxyproline, X-12063 and X-13435, which showed added value in predicting progression to type 2 diabetes when combined with known biomarkers such as glucose, mannose and α-hydroxybutyrate and routinely used clinical risk factors.Conclusions/interpretationThis study provides a panel of novel metabolic markers for future efforts aimed at the prevention of type 2 diabetes.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s00125-017-4325-0) contains peer-reviewed but unedited supplementary material, which is available to authorised users.