Nitrous oxide (N2O) is a powerful greenhouse gas and the main driver of stratospheric ozone depletion. Since soils are the largest source of N2O, predicting soil response to changes in climate or land use is central to understanding and managing N2O. Here we find that N2O flux can be predicted by models incorporating soil nitrate concentration (NO3−), water content and temperature using a global field survey of N2O emissions and potential driving factors across a wide range of organic soils. N2O emissions increase with NO3− and follow a bell-shaped distribution with water content. Combining the two functions explains 72% of N2O emission from all organic soils. Above 5 mg NO3−-N kg−1, either draining wet soils or irrigating well-drained soils increases N2O emission by orders of magnitude. As soil temperature together with NO3− explains 69% of N2O emission, tropical wetlands should be a priority for N2O management.

The regional variability in tundra and boreal carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes can be high, complicating efforts to quantify sink‐source patterns across the entire region. Statistical models are increasingly used to predict (i.e., upscale) CO2 fluxes across large spatial domains, but the reliability of different modeling techniques, each with different specifications and assumptions, has not been assessed in detail. Here, we compile eddy covariance and chamber measurements of annual and growing season CO2 fluxes of gross primary productivity (GPP), ecosystem respiration (ER), and net ecosystem exchange (NEE) during 1990–2015 from 148 terrestrial high‐latitude (i.e., tundra and boreal) sites to analyze the spatial patterns and drivers of CO2 fluxes and test the accuracy and uncertainty of different statistical models. CO2 fluxes were upscaled at relatively high spatial resolution (1 km2) across the high‐latitude region using five commonly used statistical models and their ensemble, that is, the median of all five models, using climatic, vegetation, and soil predictors. We found the performance of machine learning and ensemble predictions to outperform traditional regression methods. We also found the predictive performance of NEE‐focused models to be low, relative to models predicting GPP and ER. Our data compilation and ensemble predictions showed that CO2 sink strength was larger in the boreal biome (observed and predicted average annual NEE −46 and −29 g C m−2 yr−1, respectively) compared to tundra (average annual NEE +10 and −2 g C m−2 yr−1). This pattern was associated with large spatial variability, reflecting local heterogeneity in soil organic carbon stocks, climate, and vegetation productivity. The terrestrial ecosystem CO2 budget, estimated using the annual NEE ensemble prediction, suggests the high‐latitude region was on average an annual CO2 sink during 1990–2015, although uncertainty remains high.

Research in global change ecology relies heavily on global climatic grids derived from estimates of air temperature in open areas at around 2 m above the ground. These climatic grids thus fail to reflect conditions below vegetation canopies and near the ground surface, where critical ecosystem functions are controlled and most terrestrial species reside. Here we provide global maps of soil temperature and bioclimatic variables at a 1-km² resolution for 0-5 and 5-15 cm depth. These maps were created by calculating the difference (i.e., offset) between in-situ soil temperature measurements, based on time series from over 1200 1-km² pixels (summarized from 8500 unique temperature sensors) across all of the world's major terrestrial biomes, and coarse-grained air temperature estimates from ERA5-Land (an atmospheric reanalysis by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts). We show that mean annual soil temperature differs markedly from the corresponding 2 m gridded air temperature, by up to 10°C (mean = 3.0 ± 2.1°C), with substantial variation across biomes and seasons. Over the year, soils in cold and/or dry biomes are substantially warmer (3.6 ± 2.3°C warmer than gridded air temperature), whereas soils in warm and humid environments are on average slightly cooler (0.7 ± 2.3°C cooler). The observed substantial and biome-specific offsets underpin that the projected impacts of climate and climate change on biodiversity and ecosystem functioning are inaccurately assessed when air rather than soil temperature is used, especially in cold environments. The global soil-related bioclimatic variables provided here are an important step forward for any application in ecology and related disciplines. Nevertheless, we highlight the need to fill remaining global gaps by collecting more in-situ measurements of microclimate conditions to further enhance the spatiotemporal resolution of global soil temperature products for ecological applications.

Research in environmental science relies heavily on global climatic grids derived from estimates of air temperature at around 2 meter above ground1-3. These climatic grids however fail to reflect conditions near and below the soil surface, where critical ecosystem functions such as soil carbon storage are controlled and most biodiversity resides4-8. By using soil temperature time series from over 8500 locations across all of the world’s terrestrial biomes4, we derived global maps of soil temperature-related variables at 1 km resolution for the 0–5 and 5–15 cm depth horizons. Based on these maps, we show that mean annual soil temperature differs markedly from the corresponding 2 m gridded air temperature, by up to 10°C, with substantial variation across biomes and seasons. Soils in cold and/or dry biomes are annually substantially warmer (3.6°C ± 2.3°C) than gridded air temperature, whereas soils in warm and humid environments are slightly cooler (0.7 ± 2.3°C). As a result, annual soil temperature varies less (by 17%) across the globe than air temperature. The effect of macroclimatic conditions on the difference between soil and air temperature highlights the importance of considering that macroclimate warming may not result in the same level of soil temperature warming. Similarly, changes in precipitation could alter the relationship between soil and air temperature, with implications for soil-atmosphere feedbacks9. Our results underpin that the impacts of climate and climate change on biodiversity and ecosystem functioning are inaccurately assessed when air rather than soil temperature is used, especially in cold environments.

Abstract. Peatland restoration may provide a potential afteruse option to mitigate the negative climate impact of abandoned peat extraction areas; currently, however, knowledge about restoration effects on the annual balances of carbon (C) and greenhouse gas (GHG) exchanges is still limited. The aim of this study was to investigate the impact of contrasting mean water table levels (WTLs) on the annual C and GHG balances of restoration treatments with high (Res H ) and low (Res L ) WTL relative to an unrestored bare peat (BP) site. Measurements of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), methane (CH 4 ) and nitrous oxide (N 2 O) fluxes were conducted over a full year using the closed chamber method and complemented by measurements of abiotic controls and vegetation cover. Three years following restoration, the difference in the mean WTL resulted in higher bryophyte and lower vascular plant cover in Res H relative to Res L . Consequently, greater gross primary production and autotrophic respiration associated with greater vascular plant cover were observed in Res L compared to Res H . However, the means of the measured net ecosystem CO 2 exchanges (NEE) were not significantly different between Res H and Res L . Similarly, no significant differences were observed in the respective means of CH 4 and N 2 O exchanges. In comparison to the two restored sites, greater net CO 2 , similar CH 4 and greater N 2 O emissions occurred in BP. On the annual scale, Res H , Res L and BP were C sources of 111, 103 and 268 g C m −2 yr −1 and had positive GHG balances of 4.1, 3.8 and 10.2 t CO 2 eq ha −1 yr −1 , respectively. Thus, the different WTLs had a limited impact on the C and GHG balances in the two restored treatments 3 years following restoration. However, the C and GHG balances in Res H and Res L were considerably lower than in BP due to the large reduction in CO 2 emissions. This study therefore suggests that restoration may serve as an effective method to mitigate the negative climate impacts of abandoned peat extraction areas.