Three separate breeding populations of the Nile monitor (Varanus niloticus) have been identified in Florida, USA, located in Cape Coral, West Palm Beach and Homestead Air Reserve Base. This large, predatory lizard could have negative effects on Florida's native wildlife. Here, we infer the source of the introduced populations using genetic and statistical approaches, as well as estimate the potential non-native distribution of V. niloticus in North America. We collected genetic data from 25 Florida individuals as well as utilized genetic datasets from reference individuals spanning the full native distribution throughout sub-Saharan Africa. Using occurrence data from the inferred source population and the full species range, we built ecological niche models (ENMs) and projected them onto North America to determine regions with suitable climate. Our results indicated that the introduced populations resulted from three separate introduction events, and all originated from the southern coastal region of West Africa. The ENM built from the West African source population predicted only the southernmost portions of North America to be suitable. Conversely, the model derived from the full species’ range predicted suitable climates across a large portion of the United States. This information can be used to focus management and eradication efforts.

Invasive species are widely recognized as important drivers of the ongoing biodiversity crisis. The US state of Florida is especially susceptible to the proliferation of invasive reptiles, and nonnative lizards currently outnumber native lizard species. At present, there are 3 documented breeding populations of the Nile monitor (Varanus niloticus) in different regions of Southern Florida, and these populations are considered potential dangers to threatened, fossorial endemics, such as burrowing owls, American crocodiles, and gopher tortoises. Nevertheless, at present, both the introduction histories of these populations and the degree to which they are connected by gene flow are not known. To address these issues, we genotyped V. niloticus from Cape Coral, Homestead Air Reserve Base, and West Palm Beach at 17 microsatellite loci and conducted a variety of analyses to assess both intrapopulation genetic diversity, the degree of gene flow between populations, and the most likely introduction scenario. The results of our analyses demonstrate that all 3 populations have limited genetic diversity (mean number of effective alleles across loci in all 3 populations ~ 2.00) and are highly differentiated from one another (G ST = 0.268; G″ST = 0.628). Our results also suggest that these populations resulted from independent introduction events that occurred within the past few decades. Consequently, we advise that wildlife managers focus management efforts on containment of existing populations and intensification of monitoring efforts on potential migration corridors.