Objective. Although knee malalignment is assumed to correlate with knee osteoarthritis (OA), it is still unknown whether malalignment precedes the development of OA or whether it is a result of OA. The aim of this study was to assess the relationship between malalignment and the development of knee OA as well as progression of knee OA.Methods. A total of 1,501 participants in the Rotterdam study were randomly selected. Knee OA at baseline and at followup (mean followup 6.6 years) was scored according to the Kellgren/Lawrence (K/L) grading system. Alignment was measured by the femorotibial angle on radiographs at baseline. Multivariable logistic regression for repeated measurements was used to analyze the association of malalignment with the development and progression of OA.Results. Of 2,664 knees, 1,012 (38%) were considered to have normal alignment, 693 (26%) had varus alignment, and 959 (36%) had valgus alignment. A comparison of valgus alignment and normal alignment showed that valgus alignment was associated with a borderline significant increase in development of knee OA (odds ratio [OR] 1.54, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] 0.97-2.44), and varus alignment was associated with a 2-fold increased risk (OR 2.06, 95% CI 1.28-3.32). Stratification for body mass index showed that this increased risk was especially seen in overweight and obese individuals but not in non-overweight persons. The risk of OA progression was also significantly increased in the group with varus alignment compared with the group with normal alignment (OR 2.90, 95% CI 1.07-7.88).Conclusion. An increasing degree of varus alignment is associated not only with progression of knee OA but also with development of knee OA. However, this association seems particularly applicable to overweight and obese persons.

Objective: To investigate the relationship between body mass index (BMI) and the incidence and progression of radiological knee as well as of radiological hip osteoarthritis. Design: Cohort study. Setting: Population based. Participants: 3585 people aged >55 years were selected from the Rotterdam Study, on the basis of the availability of radiographs of baseline and follow-up. Main outcome measures: Incidence of knee or hip osteoarthritis was defined as minimally grade 2 at followup and grade 0 or 1 at baseline. The progression of osteoarthritis was defined as a decrease in joint space width.Methods: x Rays of the knee and hip at baseline and follow-up (mean follow-up of 6.6 years) were evaluated. BMI was measured at baseline. Results: A high BMI (.27 kg/m 2 ) at baseline was associated with incident knee osteoarthritis (odds ratio (OR) 3.3), but not with incident hip osteoarthritis. A high BMI was also associated with progression of knee osteoarthritis (OR 3.2). For the hip, a significant association between progression of osteoarthritis and BMI was not found. Conclusion: On the basis of these results, we conclude that BMI is associated with the incidence and progression of knee osteoarthritis. Furthermore, it seems that BMI is not associated with the incidence and progression of hip osteoarthritis.

Objective. To provide an overview of prognostic factors of knee osteoarthritis (OA) progression. Methods. We searched Medline and Embase up to December 2003 according to a specified search strategy (keywords for disease, location, and study design). Studies that fulfilled predefined criteria were assessed for methodologic quality. Study characteristics and associations were extracted and the results were summarized according to a best evidence synthesis. Results. Of the 1,004 studies found, 37 met the inclusion criteria. Methodologic quality was assessed and only highquality studies were included (n ‫؍‬ 36). The best evidence synthesis yielded strong evidence that hyaluronic acid serum levels and generalized OA are predictive for progression of knee OA. Sex, knee pain, radiologic severity, knee injury, quadriceps strength, and regular sport activities were not predictive. Conflicting evidence for associations was found for several factors including body mass index and age. Limited evidence for an association with progression of knee OA was found for several factors, including the alignment (varus/valgus) of the joint. Limited evidence for no association with progression of OA was also found for several factors, including meniscectomy, several markers of bone or cartilage turnover, and the clinical diagnosis of localized OA. Conclusion. Generalized OA and level of hyaluronic acid seem to be associated with the radiologic progression of knee OA. Knee pain, radiologic severity at baseline, sex, quadriceps strength, knee injury, and regular sport activities seem not to be related. For other factors, the evidence was limited or conflicting.

BackgroundA previous systematic review on prognostic factors for knee osteoarthritis (OA) progression showed associations for generalized OA and hyaluronic acid levels. Knee pain, radiographic severity, sex, quadriceps strength, knee injury, and regular sport activities were not associated. It has been a decade since the literature search of that review and many studies have been performed since then investigating prognostic factors for radiographic knee OA progression.Questions/purposesThe purpose of this study is to provide an updated systematic review of available evidence regarding prognostic factors for radiographic knee OA progression.MethodsWe searched for observational studies in MEDLINE and EMBASE. Key words were: knee, osteoarthritis (or arthritis, or arthrosis, or degenerative joint disease), progression (or prognosis, or precipitate, or predictive), and case-control (or cohort, or longitudinal, or follow-up). Studies fulfilling the inclusion criteria were assessed for methodologic quality according to established criteria for reviews on prognostic factors in musculoskeletal disorders. Data were extracted and results were pooled if possible or summarized according to a best-evidence synthesis. A total of 1912 additional articles were identified; 43 met our inclusion criteria. The previous review contained 36 articles, thus providing a new total of 79 articles. Seventy-two of the included articles were scored high quality, the remaining seven were low quality.ResultsThe pooled odds ratio (OR) of two determinants showed associations with knee OA progression: baseline knee pain (OR, 2.38 [95% CI, 1.74–3.27) and Heberden nodes (OR, 2.66 [95% CI, 1.46–8.84]). Our best-evidence synthesis showed strong evidence that varus alignment, serum hyaluronic acid, and tumor necrosis factor-α are associated with knee OA progression. There is strong evidence that sex, former knee injury, quadriceps strength, smoking, running, and regular performance of sports are not associated with knee OA progression. Evidence for the majority of determined associations, however, was limited, conflicting, or inconclusive.ConclusionsBaseline knee pain, presence of Heberden nodes, varus alignment, and high levels of serum markers hyaluronic acid and tumor necrosis factor-α predict knee OA progression. Sex, knee injury, and quadriceps strength, among others, did not predict knee OA progression. Large variation remains in definitions of knee OA and knee OA progression. Clinical studies should use more consistent definitions of these factors to facilitate data pooling by future meta-analyses.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s11999-015-4349-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

IntroductionWe performed a systematic review of prognostic factors for the progression of symptomatic knee osteoarthritis (OA), defined as increase in pain, decline in physical function or total joint replacement.MethodWe searched for available observational studies up to January 2015 in Medline and Embase according to a specified search strategy. Studies that fulfilled our initial inclusion criteria were assessed for methodological quality. Data were extracted and the results were pooled, or if necessary summarized according to a best evidence synthesis.ResultsOf 1,392 articles identified, 30 met the inclusion criteria and 38 determinants were investigated. Pooling was not possible due to large heterogeneity between studies. The best evidence synthesis showed strong evidence that age, ethnicity, body mass index, co-morbidity count, magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-detected infrapatellar synovitis, joint effusion and baseline OA severity (both radiographic and clinical) are associated with clinical knee OA progression. There was moderate evidence showing that education level, vitality, pain-coping subscale resting, MRI-detected medial femorotibial cartilage loss and general bone marrow lesions are associated with clinical knee OA progression. However, evidence for the majority of determinants was limited (including knee range of motion or markers) or conflicting (including age, gender and joint line tenderness).ConclusionStrong evidence was found for multiple prognostic factors for progression of clinical knee OA. A large variety in definitions of clinical knee OA (progression) remains, which makes it impossible to summarize the evidence through meta-analyses. More research on prognostic factors for knee OA is needed using symptom progression as an outcome measure. Remarkably, only few studies have been performed using pain progression as an outcome measure. The pathophysiology of radiographic factors and their relation with symptoms should be further explored.