This paper presents a stress-testing model for liquidity risks of banks. It takes into account the first and second round (feedback) effects of shocks, induced by reactions of heterogeneous banks, and reputation effects. The impact on liquidity buffers and the probability of a liquidity shortfall is simulated by a Monte Carlo approach. An application to Dutch banks illustrates that the second round effects in specific scenarios could have more impact than the first round effects and hit all types of banks, indicative of systemic risk. This lends support policy initiatives to enhance banks' liquidity buffers and liquidity risk management, which could also contribute to prevent financial stability risks.
The relationship between stock prices and house prices is investigated by comparing different segments of the Dutch housing market. This connection is strongest for the most expensive segment, and is also related to homeowners' stock market exposure. These findings support the idea that equity is a determinant of house prices.
We first sketch how central banks have used unconventional monetary policy measures by using three indicators based on the composition of the balance sheet of eleven central banks. Our analysis suggests that although the ECB's balance sheet has increased dramatically during the crisis, the non-standard monetary policy measures had only a moderate impact on the composition of the ECB's balance sheet compared to other central banks, such as the Fed and the Bank of England. Next, we take stock of research analysing the effects of unconventional monetary policy of the ECB after the onset of the crisis. A crucial question is to what extent these measures have been able to affect interest rates, thereby restoring the monetary policy transmission process and supporting the central bank objectives. Finally, we offer new evidence on the effectiveness of the ECB's unconventional monetary policy measures, i.e. extended liquidity provision (LTRO) and the Securities Market Programme (SMP). Our results suggest that the LTRO interventions in general had a favorable (shortterm) effect on government bond yields. Changes in the SMP only had a visible downward effect on bond yields in Summer 2011, when the program was reactivated for Italy and Spain, but this effect dissipated within a few weeks.
This paper maps the empirical features of the Loan-to-Deposit (LTD) ratio with an eye on using it in macroprudential policy to mitigate liquidity risk. We inspect the LTD trends and cycles of 11 euro area countries by filtering methods and analyze the interaction between loans and deposits. We propose that the trend of the LTD ratio is maintained within an upper and lower bound to avoid bad equilibria. To manage the LTD ratio between the boundaries we formulate two macroprudential rules. One that stimulates banks to issue retail deposits in an upturn and one that incentivizes banks to create loanable funds to support lending in a downturn, facilitated by a sufficiently long adjustment period.
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