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Selenga River Basin Climate change CMIP5 Hydrology Permafrost s u m m a r yClimatic changes can profoundly alter hydrological conditions in river basins. Lake Baikal is the deepest and largest freshwater reservoir on Earth, and has a unique ecosystem with numerous endemic animal and plant species. We here identify long-term historical ) and projected future hydro-climatic trends in the Selenga River Basin, which is the largest sub-basin (>60% inflow) of Lake Baikal. Our analysis is based on long-term river monitoring and historical hydro-climatic observation data, as well as ensemble mean and 22 individual model results of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5). Study of the latter considers a historical period (from 1961) and projections for 2010-2039 and 2070-2099. Observations show almost twice as fast warming as the global average during the period 1938-2009. Decreased intra-annual variability of river discharge over this period indicates basin-scale permafrost degradation. CMIP5 ensemble projections show further future warming, implying continued permafrost thaw. Modelling of runoff change, however, is highly uncertain, with many models (64%) and their ensemble mean failing to reproduce historical behaviour, and with indicated future increase being small relative to the large differences among individual model results.

The multimodel ensemble of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5) synthesizes the latest research in global climate modeling. The freshwater system on land, particularly runoff, has so far been of relatively low priority in global climate models, despite the societal and ecosystem importance of freshwater changes, and the science and policy needs for such model output on drainage basin scales. Here we investigate the implications of CMIP5 multimodel ensemble output data for the freshwater system across a set of drainage basins in the Northern Hemisphere. Results of individual models vary widely, with even ensemble mean results differing greatly from observations and implying unrealistic long-term systematic changes in water storage and level within entire basins. The CMIP5 projections of basin-scale freshwater fluxes differ considerably more from observations and among models for the warm temperate study basins than for the Arctic and cold temperate study basins. In general, the results call for concerted research efforts and model developments for improving the understanding and modeling of the freshwater system and its change drivers. Specifically, more attention to basin-scale water flux analyses should be a priority for climate model development, and an important focus for relevant model-based advice for adaptation to climate change.