In this study Lagrangian large-eddy simulation of cloudy mixed layers in evolving warm air masses in the Arctic is constrained by in situ observations from the recent PASCAL field campaign. A key novelty is that time dependence is maintained in the large-scale forcings. An iterative procedure featuring large-eddy simulation on microgrids is explored to calibrate the case setup, inspired by and making use of the typically long memory of Arctic air masses for upstream conditions. The simulated mixed-phase clouds are part of a turbulent mixed layer that is weakly coupled to the surface and is occasionally capped by a shallow humidity layer. All eight simulated mixed layers exhibit a strong time evolution across a range of time scales, including diurnal but also synoptic fingerprints. A few cases experience rapid cloud collapse, coinciding with a rapid decrease in mixed-layer depth. To gain insight, composite budget analyses are performed. In the mixed-layer interior the heat and moisture budgets are dominated by turbulent transport, radiative cooling, and precipitation. However, near the thermal inversion the large-scale vertical advection also contributes significantly, showing a distinct difference between subsidence and upsidence conditions. A bulk mass budget analysis reveals that entrainment deepening behaves almost time-constantly, as long as clouds are present. In contrast, large-scale subsidence fluctuates much more strongly and can both counteract and boost boundary-layer deepening resulting from entrainment. Strong and sudden subsidence events following prolonged deepening periods are found to cause the cloud collapses, associated with a substantial reduction in the surface downward longwave radiative flux.

To quantify the turbulent transport at gray zone length scales between 1 and 10 km, the Lagrangian evolution of the CONSTRAIN cold air outbreak case was simulated with seven large eddy models. The case is characterized by rather large latent and sensible heat fluxes and a rapid deepening rate of the boundary layer. In some models the entrainment velocity exceeds 4 cm/s. A significant fraction of this growth is attributed to a strong longwave radiative cooling of the inversion layer. The evolution and the timing of the breakup of the stratocumulus cloud deck differ significantly among the models. Sensitivity experiments demonstrate that a decrease in the prescribed cloud droplet number concentration and the inclusion of ice microphysics both act to speed up the thinning of the stratocumulus by enhancing the production of precipitation. In all models the formation of mesoscale fluctuations is clearly evident in the cloud fields and also in the horizontal wind velocity. Resolved vertical fluxes remain important for scales up to 10 km. The simulation results show that the resolved vertical velocity variance gradually diminishes with a coarsening of the horizontal mesh, but the total vertical fluxes of heat, moisture, and momentum are only weakly affected. This is a promising result as it demonstrates the potential use of a mesh size‐dependent turbulent length scale for convective boundary layers at gray zone model resolutions.

The Diabatic Influences on Mesoscale Structures in Extratropical Storms (DIAMET) project aims to improve forecasts of high-impact weather in extratropical cyclones through field measurements, high-resolution numerical modeling, and improved design of ensemble forecasting and data assimilation systems. This article introduces DIAMET and presents some of the first results. Four field campaigns were conducted by the project, one of which, in late 2011, coincided with an exceptionally stormy period marked by an unusually strong, zonal North Atlantic jet stream and a succession of severe windstorms in northwest Europe. As a result, December 2011 had the highest monthly North Atlantic Oscillation index (2.52) of any December in the last 60 years. Detailed observations of several of these storms were gathered using the U.K.’s BAe 146 research aircraft and extensive ground-based measurements. As an example of the results obtained during the campaign, observations are presented of Extratropical Cyclone Friedhelm on 8 December 2011, when surface winds with gusts exceeding 30 m s–1 crossed central Scotland, leading to widespread disruption to transportation and electricity supply. Friedhelm deepened 44 hPa in 24 h and developed a pronounced bent-back front wrapping around the storm center. The strongest winds at 850 hPa and the surface occurred in the southern quadrant of the storm, and detailed measurements showed these to be most intense in clear air between bands of showers. High-resolution ensemble forecasts from the Met Office showed similar features, with the strongest winds aligned in linear swaths between the bands, suggesting that there is potential for improved skill in forecasts of damaging winds.

Mechanisms behind the phenomenon of Arctic amplification are widely discussed. To contribute to this debate, the (AC)3 project has been established in 2016 (http://www.ac3-tr.de/). It comprises modeling and data analysis efforts as well as observational elements. The project has assembled a wealth of ground-based, airborne, ship-borne, and satellite data of physical, chemical, and meteorological properties of the Arctic atmosphere, cryosphere, and upper ocean that are available for the Arctic climate research community. Short-term changes and indications of long-term trends in Arctic climate parameters have been detected using existing and new data. For example, a distinct atmospheric moistening, an increase of regional storm activities, an amplified winter warming in the Svalbard and North Pole regions, and a decrease of sea ice thickness in the Fram Strait and of snow depth on sea ice have been identified. A positive trend of tropospheric bromine monoxide (BrO) column densities during polar spring was verified. Local marine/biogenic sources for cloud condensation nuclei and ice nucleating particles were found. Atmospheric/ocean and radiative transfer models were advanced by applying new parameterizations of surface albedo, cloud droplet activation, convective plumes and related processes over leads, and turbulent transfer coefficients for stable surface layers. Four modes of the surface radiative energy budget were explored and reproduced by simulations. To advance the future synthesis of the results, cross cutting activities are being developed aiming to answer key questions in four focus areas: lapse rate feedback, surface processes, Arctic mixed-phase clouds, and air mass transport and transformation.

Abstract. The Arctic has warmed much more than the global mean during past decades. The lapse-rate feedback (LRF) has been identified as large contributor to the Arctic amplification (AA) of climate change. This particular feedback arises from the vertically non-uniform warming of the troposphere, which in the Arctic emerges as strong near-surface, and muted free-tropospheric warming. Stable stratification and meridional energy transport are two characteristic processes that are evoked as causes for this vertical warming structure. Our aim is to constrain these governing processes by making use of detailed observations in combination with the large climate model ensemble of the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). We build on the result that CMIP6 models show a large scatter in Arctic LRF and AA, which are positively correlated for the historical period 1951–2014. Thereby, we present process-oriented constraints by linking characteristics of the current climate to historical climate simulations. In particular, we compare a large consortium of present-day observations to co-located model data from subsets with weak and strong simulated AA and Arctic LRF in the past. Our results firstly suggest that local Arctic processes mediating the lower thermodynamic structure of the atmosphere are more realistically depicted in climate models with weak Arctic LRF and AA (CMIP6/w) in the past. In particular, CMIP6/w models show stronger inversions at the end of the simulation period (2014) for boreal fall and winter, which is more consistent with the observations. This result is based on radiosonde observations from the year-long MOSAiC expedition in the central Arctic, together with long-term radio soundings at the Utqiaǵvik site in Alaska, USA, and dropsonde measurements from aircraft campaigns in the Fram Strait. Secondly, remote influences that can further mediate the warming structure in the free troposphere are more realistically represented by models with strong simulated Arctic LRF and AA (CMIP6/s) in the past. In particular, CMIP6/s models systemically simulate a stronger Arctic energy transport convergence in the present climate for boreal fall and winter, which is more consistent with reanalysis results. Locally, we find links between changes in transport pathways and vertical warming structures that favor a positive LRF in the CMIP6/s simulations. This hints to the mediating influence of advection on the Arctic LRF. We emphasise that one major attempt of this work is to give insights in different perspectives on the Arctic LRF. We present a variety of contributions from a large collaborative research consortium to ultimately find synergy among them in support of advancing our understanding of the Arctic LRF.