Gastroenteritis is a common reason for hospital admission in previously healthy children during the first years of life. Rotaviruses were found to be the most common pathogens in our cohort. On the basis of clinical and laboratory parameters it appears possible to distinguish between the different causative agents. This may have implications for hospital hygiene management and for the identification of predictive markers of a severe course.

No abstract

A substantial increase in papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) among children exposed to the radioiodine fallout has been one of the main consequences of the Chernobyl reactor accident. Recently, the investigation of PTCs from a cohort of young patients exposed to the post-Chernobyl radioiodine fallout at very young age and a matched nonexposed control group revealed a radiation-specific DNA copy number gain on chromosomal band 7q11.23 and the radiation-associated mRNA overexpression of CLIP2. In this study, we investigated the potential role of CLIP2 as a radiation marker to be used for the individual classification of PTCs into CLIP2-positive and -negative cases-a prerequisite for the integration of CLIP2 into epidemiological modelling of the risk of radiation-induced PTC. We were able to validate the radiation-associated CLIP2 overexpression at the protein level by immunohistochemistry (IHC) followed by relative quantification using digital image analysis software (P=0.0149). Furthermore, we developed a standardized workflow for the determination of CLIP2-positive and -negative cases that combines visual CLIP2 IHC scoring and CLIP2 genomic copy number status. In addition to the discovery cohort (n=33), two independent validation cohorts of PTCs (n=115) were investigated. High sensitivity and specificity rates for all three investigated cohorts were obtained, demonstrating robustness of the developed workflow. To analyse the function of CLIP2 in radiation-associated PTC, the CLIP2 gene regulatory network was reconstructed using global mRNA expression data from PTC patient samples. The genes comprising the first neighbourhood of CLIP2 (BAG2, CHST3, KIF3C, NEURL1, PPIL3 and RGS4) suggest the involvement of CLIP2 in the fundamental carcinogenic processes including apoptosis, mitogen-activated protein kinase signalling and genomic instability. In our study, we successfully developed and independently validated a workflow for the typing of PTC clinical samples into CLIP2-positive and CLIP2-negative and provided first insights into the CLIP2 interactome in the context of radiation-associated PTC.

Some relatively new issues that augment the usual practice of ignoring model uncertainty, when making inference about parameters of a specific model, are brought to the attention of the radiation protection community here. Nine recently published leukaemia risk models, developed with the Japanese A-bomb epidemiological mortality data, have been included in a model-averaging procedure so that the main conclusions do not depend on just one type of model or statistical test. The models have been centred here at various adult and young ages at exposure, for some short times since exposure, in order to obtain specially computed childhood Excess Relative Risks (ERR) with uncertainties that account for correlations in the fitted parameters associated with the ERR dose-response. The model-averaged ERR at 1 Sv was not found to be statistically significant for attained ages of 7 and 12 years but was statistically significant for attained ages of 17, 22 and 55 years. Consequently, such risks when applied to other situations, such as children in the vicinity of nuclear installations or in estimates of the proportion of childhood leukaemia incidence attributable to background radiation (i.e. low doses for young ages and short times since exposure), are only of very limited value, with uncertainty ranges that include zero risk. For example, assuming a total radiation dose to a 5-year-old child of 10 mSv and applying the model-averaged risk at 10 mSv for a 7-year-old exposed at 2 years of age would result in an ERR=0.33, 95% CI: -0.51 to 1.22. One model (United Nations scientific committee on the effects of atomic radiation report. Volume 1. Annex A: epidemiological studies of radiation and cancer, United Nations, New York, 2006) weighted model-averaged risks of leukaemia most strongly by half of the total unity weighting and is recommended for application in future leukaemia risk assessments that continue to ignore model uncertainty. However, on the basis of the analysis presented here, it is generally recommended to take model uncertainty into account in future risk analyses.

The non-cancer mortality data for cerebrovascular disease (CVD) and cardiovascular diseases from Report 13 on the atomic bomb survivors published by the Radiation Effects Research Foundation were analysed to investigate the dose–response for the influence of radiation on these detrimental health effects. Various parametric and categorical models (such as linear-no-threshold (LNT) and a number of threshold and step models) were analysed with a statistical selection protocol that rated the model description of the data. Instead of applying the usual approach of identifying one preferred model for each data set, a set of plausible models was applied, and a sub-set of non-nested models was identified that all fitted the data about equally well. Subsequently, this sub-set of non-nested models was used to perform multi-model inference (MMI), an innovative method of mathematically combining different models to allow risk estimates to be based on several plausible dose–response models rather than just relying on a single model of choice. This procedure thereby produces more reliable risk estimates based on a more comprehensive appraisal of model uncertainties. For CVD, MMI yielded a weak dose–response (with a risk estimate of about one-third of the LNT model) below a step at 0.6 Gy and a stronger dose–response at higher doses. The calculated risk estimates are consistent with zero risk below this threshold-dose. For mortalities related to cardiovascular diseases, an LNT-type dose–response was found with risk estimates consistent with zero risk below 2.2 Gy based on 90% confidence intervals. The MMI approach described here resolves a dilemma in practical radiation protection when one is forced to select between models with profoundly different dose–responses for risk estimates.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s00411-012-0410-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.