The Helgoland Roads time series is one of the richest temporal marine data sets available. Running since 1962, it documents changes for phytoplankton, salinity, Secchi disc depths and macronutrients. Uniquely, the data have been carefully quality controlled and linked to relevant meta-data, and the pelagic time series is further augmented by zooplankton, intertidal macroalgae, macrozoobenthos and bacterioplankton data. Data analyses have shown changes in hydrography and biota around Helgoland. In the late 1970s, water inflows from the south-west to the German Bight increased with a corresponding increase in flushing rates. Salinity and annual mean temperature have also increased since 1962 and the latter by an average of 1.67°C. This has influenced seasonal phytoplankton growth causing significant shifts in diatom densities and the numbers of large diatoms (e. g. Coscinodiscus wailesii). Changes in zooplankton diversity have included the appearance of the ctenophore Mnemiopsis leidyi. The macroalgal community also showed an increase in green algal and a decrease in brown algal species after 1959. Over 30 benthic macrofaunal species have been newly recorded at Helgoland over the last 20 years, with a distinct shift towards southern species. These detailed data provide the basis for long-term analyses of changes on many trophic levels at Helgoland Roads.

To understand ecosystem responses to anthropogenic global change, a prevailing framework is the definition of threshold levels of pressure, above which response magnitudes and their variances increase disproportionately. However, we lack systematic quantitative evidence as to whether empirical data allow definition of such thresholds. Here, we summarize 36 meta-analyses measuring more than 4,600 global change impacts on natural communities. We find that threshold transgressions were rarely detectable, either within or across meta-analyses. Instead, ecological responses were characterized mostly by progressively increasing magnitude and variance when pressure increased. Sensitivity analyses with modelled data revealed that minor variances in the response are sufficient to preclude the detection of thresholds from data, even if they are present. The simulations reinforced our contention that global change biology needs to abandon the general expectation that system properties allow defining thresholds as a way to manage nature under global change. Rather, highly variable responses, even under weak pressures, suggest that 'safe-operating spaces' are unlikely to be quantifiable.

Untargeted molecular analyses of complex mixtures are relevant for many fields of research, including geochemistry, pharmacology, and medicine. Ultrahigh-resolution mass spectrometry is one of the most powerful tools in this context. The availability of open scripts and online tools for specific data processing steps such as noise removal or molecular formula assignment is growing, but an integrative tool where all crucial steps are reproducibly evaluated and documented is lacking. We developed a novel, server-based tool (ICBM-OCEAN, Institute for Chemistry and Biology of the Marine Environment, Oldenburg−complex molecular mixtures, evaluation & analysis) that integrates published and novel approaches for standardized processing of ultrahigh-resolution mass spectrometry data of complex molecular mixtures. Different from published approaches, we offer diagnostic and validation tools for all relevant steps. Among other features, we included objective and reproducible reduction of noise and systematic errors, spectra recalibration and alignment, and identification of likeliest molecular formulas. With 15 chemical elements, the tool offers high flexibility in formula attribution. Alignment of mass spectra among different samples prior to molecular formula assignment improves mass error and facilitates molecular formula confirmation with the help of isotopologues. The online tool and the detailed instruction manual are freely accessible at www.icbm.de/icbm-ocean.

The phenomenon of frequency and phase synchronization in stochastic systems requires a revision of concepts originally phrased in the context of purely deterministic systems. Various definitions of an instantaneous phase are presented and compared with each other with special attention paid to their robustness with respect to noise. We review the results of an analytic approach describing noise-induced phase synchronization in a thermal two-state system. In this context exact expressions for the mean frequency and the phase diffusivity are obtained that together determine the average length of locking episodes. A recently proposed method to quantify frequency synchronization in noisy potential systems is presented and exemplified by applying it to the periodically driven noisy harmonic oscillator. Since this method is based on a threshold crossing rate pioneered by Rice the related phase velocity is termed the Rice frequency. Finally, we discuss the relation between the phenomenon of stochastic resonance and noise-enhanced phase coherence by applying the developed concepts to the periodically driven bistable Kramers oscillator.

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