Southeast Asia is a hotspot for emerging infectious diseases, including those with pandemic potential. Emerging infectious diseases have exacted heavy public health and economic tolls. Severe acute respiratory syndrome rapidly decimated the region's tourist industry. Influenza A H5N1 has had a profound effect on the poultry industry. The reasons why southeast Asia is at risk from emerging infectious diseases are complex. The region is home to dynamic systems in which biological, social, ecological, and technological processes interconnect in ways that enable microbes to exploit new ecological niches. These processes include population growth and movement, urbanisation, changes in food production, agriculture and land use, water and sanitation, and the effect of health systems through generation of drug resistance. Southeast Asia is home to about 600 million people residing in countries as diverse as Singapore, a city state with a gross domestic product (GDP) of US$37,500 per head, and Laos, until recently an overwhelmingly rural economy, with a GDP of US$890 per head. The regional challenges in control of emerging infectious diseases are formidable and range from influencing the factors that drive disease emergence, to making surveillance systems fit for purpose, and ensuring that regional governance mechanisms work effectively to improve control interventions.

Background Asymptomatic or subclinical SARS-CoV-2 infections are often unreported, which means that confirmed case counts may not accurately reflect underlying epidemic dynamics. Understanding the level of ascertainment (the ratio of confirmed symptomatic cases to the true number of symptomatic individuals) and undetected epidemic progression is crucial to informing COVID-19 response planning, including the introduction and relaxation of control measures. Estimating case ascertainment over time allows for accurate estimates of specific outcomes such as seroprevalence, which is essential for planning control measures. Methods Using reported data on COVID-19 cases and fatalities globally, we estimated the proportion of symptomatic cases (i.e. any person with any of fever ≥ 37.5 °C, cough, shortness of breath, sudden onset of anosmia, ageusia or dysgeusia illness) that were reported in 210 countries and territories, given those countries had experienced more than ten deaths. We used published estimates of the baseline case fatality ratio (CFR), which was adjusted for delays and under-ascertainment, then calculated the ratio of this baseline CFR to an estimated local delay-adjusted CFR to estimate the level of under-ascertainment in a particular location. We then fit a Bayesian Gaussian process model to estimate the temporal pattern of under-ascertainment. Results Based on reported cases and deaths, we estimated that, during March 2020, the median percentage of symptomatic cases detected across the 84 countries which experienced more than ten deaths ranged from 2.4% (Bangladesh) to 100% (Chile). Across the ten countries with the highest number of total confirmed cases as of 6 July 2020, we estimated that the peak number of symptomatic cases ranged from 1.4 times (Chile) to 18 times (France) larger than reported. Comparing our model with national and regional seroprevalence data where available, we find that our estimates are consistent with observed values. Finally, we estimated seroprevalence for each country. As of 7 June, our seroprevalence estimates range from 0% (many countries) to 13% (95% CrI 5.6–24%) (Belgium). Conclusions We found substantial under-ascertainment of symptomatic cases, particularly at the peak of the first wave of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, in many countries. Reported case counts will therefore likely underestimate the rate of outbreak growth initially and underestimate the decline in the later stages of an epidemic. Although there was considerable under-reporting in many locations, our estimates were consistent with emerging serological data, suggesting that the proportion of each country’s population infected with SARS-CoV-2 worldwide is generally low.

Summary Background Schistosomiasis is a neglected tropical disease of global medical and veterinary importance. As efforts to eliminate schistosomiasis as a public health problem and interrupt transmission gather momentum, the potential zoonotic risk posed by livestock Schistosoma species via viable hybridisation in sub-Saharan Africa have been largely overlooked. We aimed to investigate the prevalence, distribution, and multi-host, multiparasite transmission cycle of Haematobium group schistosomiasis in Senegal, West Africa. Methods In this epidemiological study, we carried out systematic surveys in definitive hosts (humans, cattle, sheep, and goats) and snail intermediate hosts, in 2016–18, in two areas of Northern Senegal: Richard Toll and Lac de Guiers, where transmission is perennial; and Barkedji and Linguère, where transmission is seasonal. The occurrence and distribution of Schistosoma species and hybrids were assessed by molecular analyses of parasitological specimens obtained from the different hosts. Children in the study villages aged 5–17 years and enrolled in school were selected from school registers. Adults (aged 18–78 years) were self-selecting volunteers. Livestock from the study villages in both areas were also randomly sampled, as were post-mortem samples from local abattoirs. Additionally, five malacological surveys of snail intermediate hosts were carried out at each site in open water sources used by the communities and their animals. Findings In May to August, 2016, we surveyed 375 children and 20 adults from Richard Toll and Lac de Guiers, and 201 children and 107 adults from Barkedji and Linguère; in October, 2017, to January, 2018, we surveyed 386 children and 88 adults from Richard Toll and Lac de Guiers, and 323 children and 85 adults from Barkedji and Linguère. In Richard Toll and Lac de Guiers the prevalence of urogenital schistosomiasis in children was estimated to be 87% (95% CI 80–95) in 2016 and 88% (82–95) in 2017–18. An estimated 63% (in 2016) and 72% (in 2017–18) of infected children were shedding Schistosoma haematobium–Schistosoma bovis hybrids. In adults in Richard Toll and Lac de Guiers, the prevalence of urogenital schistosomiasis was estimated to be 79% (52–97) in 2016 and 41% (30–54) in 2017–18, with 88% of infected samples containing S haematobium–S bovis hybrids. In Barkedji and Linguère the prevalence of urogenital schistosomiasis in children was estimated to be 30% (23–38) in 2016 and 42% (35–49) in 2017–18, with the proportion of infected children found to be shedding S haematobium–S bovis hybrid miracidia much lower than in Richard Toll and Lac de Guiers (11% in 2016 and 9% in 2017–18). In adults in Barkedji and Linguère, the prevalence of urogenital schistosomiasis was estimated to be 26% (17–36) in 2016 and 47% (34–...

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