The seasonal dynamics and spatial distributions of Anopheles mosquitoes and Plasmodium falciparum parasites were studied for one year at 30 villages in Malindi, Kilifi, and Kwale Districts along the coast of Kenya. Anopheline mosquitoes were sampled inside houses at each site once every two months and malaria parasite prevalence in local school children was determined at the end of the entomologic survey. A total of 5,476 Anopheles gambiae s.l. and 3,461 An. funestus were collected. Species in the An. gambiae complex, identified by a polymerase chain reaction, included 81.9% An. gambiae s.s., 12.8% An. arabiensis, and 5.3% An. merus. Anopheles gambiae s.s. contributed most to the transmission of P. falciparum along the coast as a whole, while An. funestus accounted for more than 50% of all transmission in Kwale District. Large spatial heterogeneity of transmission intensity (< 1 up to 120 infective bites per person per year) resulted in correspondingly large and significantly related variations in parasite prevalence (range ס 38−83%). Thirty-two percent of the sites (7 of 22 sites) with malaria prevalences ranging from 38% to 70% had annual entomologic inoculation rates (EIR) less than five infective bites per person per year. Anopheles gambiae s.l. and An. funestus densities in Kwale were not significantly influenced by rainfall. However, both were positively correlated with rainfall one and three months previously in Malindi and Kilifi Districts, respectively. These unexpected variations in the relationship between mosquito populations and rainfall suggest environmental heterogeneity in the predominant aquatic habitats in each district. One important conclusion is that the highly non-linear relationship between EIRs and prevalence indicates that the consistent pattern of high prevalence might be governed by substantial variation in transmission intensity measured by entomologic surveys. The field-based estimate of entomologic parameters on a district level does not provide a sensitive indicator of transmission intensity in this study.
A multitemporal, land use land cover (LULC) classification dataset incorporating distributions of mosquito larval habitats was produced in ERDAS Imagine using the combined images from the Multispectral Thermal Imager (MTI) at 5 m spatial resolution from 2001 with Thematic Mapper-classification data at 28.5 m spatial resolution from 1987 and 1989 for Kisumu and Malindi, Kenya. Total LULC change for Kisumu over 14 yr was 30.2%. Total LULC change for Malindi over 12 yr was 30.6%. Of those areas in which change was detected, the LULC change for Kisumu was 72.5% for nonurban to urban, 21.7% urban to nonurban, 0.4% urban to water, 4.5% water to urban, and 0.9% water to nonurban. The proportion of LULC change for Malindi was 93.5% for nonurban to urban, 5.9% urban to nonurban, 0.2% urban to water, 0.3% nonurban to water, and 0.1% water to urban. A grid (270 m x 270 m cells) was overlaid over the maps stratifying grid cells based on drainage and planning. Of 84 aquatic habitats in Kisumu, 32.1% were located in LULC change sites and 67.9% were located in LULC nonchange sites. Of 170 aquatic habitats in Malindi, 26.5% were located in LULC change sites and 73.5% were located in LULC nonchange sites. The most abundant LULC change per strata with anopheline habitats was unplanned and poorly drained. Ditches and puddles in Kisumu and car tracks in Malindi displayed the highest number of anopheline larval habitats for all LULC change sites. The proportion of site positive aquatic habitats for anopheline larvae was higher in LULC change sites than for LULC nonchange sites for Kisumu. This evidence suggests LULC change can influence anopheline larval habitat distribution.
BackgroundThe aim of this study was to determine if remotely sensed data and Digital Elevation Model (DEM) can test relationships between Culex quinquefasciatus and Anopheles gambiae s.l. larval habitats and environmental parameters within Internally Displaced People (IDP) campgrounds in Gulu, Uganda. A total of 65 georeferenced aquatic habitats in various IDP camps were studied to compare the larval abundance of Cx. quinquefasciatus and An. gambiae s.l. The aquatic habitat dataset were overlaid onto Land Use Land Cover (LULC) maps retrieved from Landsat imagery with 150 m × 150 m grid cells stratified by levels of drainage. The LULC change was estimated over a period of 14 years. Poisson regression analyses and Moran's I statistics were used to model relationships between larval abundance and environmental predictors. Individual larval habitat data were further evaluated in terms of their covariations with spatial autocorrelation by regressing them on candidate spatial filter eigenvectors. Multispectral QuickBird imagery classification and DEM-based GIS methods were generated to evaluate stream flow direction and accumulation for identification of immature Cx. quinquefasciatus and An. gambiae s.l. and abundance.ResultsThe main LULC change in urban Gulu IDP camps was non-urban to urban, which included about 71.5 % of the land cover. The regression models indicate that counts of An. gambiae s.l. larvae were associated with shade while Cx. quinquefasciatus were associated with floating vegetation. Moran's I and the General G statistics for mosquito density by species and instars, identified significant clusters of high densities of Anopheles; larvae, however, Culex are not consistently clustered. A stepwise negative binomial regression decomposed the immature An. gambiae s.l. data into empirical orthogonal bases. The data suggest the presence of roughly 11% to 28 % redundant information in the larval count samples. The DEM suggest a positive correlation for Culex (0.24) while for Anopheles there was a negative correlation (-0.23) for a local model distance to stream.ConclusionThese data demonstrate that optical remote sensing; geostatistics and DEMs can be used to identify parameters associated with Culex and Anopheles aquatic habitats.
This research accounts for spatial autocorrelation by including latent map pattern components as predictor variables in a malaria mosquito aquatic habitat model specification. The data used to derive the model was from a digitized grid‐based algorithm, generated in an ArcInfo database, using QuickBird visible and near‐infrared (NIR) data. The Feature Extraction (FX) Module in ENVI 4.4® was used to categorize individual pixels of field sampled aquatic habitats into separate spectral classes, convert remotely sensed raster layers to vector coverages, and classify output layers to vector format as ESRI shapefiles. These data were used to construct a geographic weights matrix for evaluation of field and remote sampled covariates of Anopheles arabiensis aquatic habitats, a major vector of malaria in East Africa. The principal finding is that synthetic map pattern variables, which are eigenvectors computed for a geographic weights matrix, furnish an alternative way of capturing spatial dependency effects in the mean response term of a regression model. The spatial autocorrelation components suggest the presence of roughly 11 to 28% redundant information in the aquatic habitat larval count samples. The presence of redundant information in the models suggest that the sampling configuration of the An. arabiensis aquatic habitats, in the study sites, may cause field and remote observations of aquatic habitats to be dependent, rather than independent, moving data analysis away from the classical statistical independence model. A Poisson regression model, with a non‐constant, gamma‐distributed mean, can decompose field and remote sampled An. arabiensis data into positive and negative spatial autocorrelation eigenvectors, which can assess the precision of a malaria mosquito aquatic habitat map and the significance of all factors associated with larval abundance and distribution in a riceland agroecosystem.
Man-made disasters such as acts of terrorism may affect a society's resiliency and sensitivity to prolonged physical and psychological stress. The Israeli Tel Aviv stock market TA-100 Index was used as an indicator of reactivity to suicide terror bombings. After accounting for factors such as world market changes and attack severity and intensity, the analysis reveals that although Israel's financial base remained sensitive to each act of terror across the entire period of the Second Intifada (2000-06), sustained psychological resilience was indicated with no apparent overall market shift. In other words, we saw a 'normalisation of terror' following an extended period of continued suicide bombings. The results suggest that investors responded to less transitory global market forces, indicating sustained resilience and long-term market confidence. Future studies directly measuring investor expectations and reactions to man-made disasters, such as terrorism, are warranted.
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