Mills [13, pp. 96-1081 and Muth [17] have published simulation models of urban residential land use that are similar enough to warrant classifying them as one model type.' The purpose of this paper is to test that model and provide extensions to improve its ability to simulate real urban areas. In Section 1, we discuss the mathematical structure and solution technique of the model. In Section 2, we construct a composite urban area which serves as our benchmark for judging the model's accuracy. Section 3 contains a discussion of parameter values. A comparison of actual and simulated results is made in Section 4. In Section 5, we provide extensions, and in Section 6 we discuss the necessary additional parameter values. Section 7 contains a comparison of actual and simulated values for the extended model. We offer a sensitivity analysis of the extended model in Section 8. Finally, Section 9 contains a brief summary.
The Mills-Muth urban residential land use simulation model is extended to include two residential income classes and a proportion of residential to urban land that varies with distance from the CBD. Land area, population, households, population density and residential property value are simulated for the central city, its suburbs and the Milwaukee urban area for the years 1977, 1980, 1985, 1990 and 2020, for two scenarios that differ primarily with respect to income growth rates and automobile commuting costs. The main finding is the powerful positive effect of even relatively small real income growth on suburbanization. Copyright American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association.
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