Managing and modelling urban growth is a multi-faceted problem. Cities are now recognised as complex systems through which non-linear processes, emergence and self-organisation occur. The design of a system that can handle these complexities is a challenging prospect. This paper presents an urban planning application for the city of Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. At the core of the application is a Fuzzy Cellular Automata Urban Growth Model (FCAUGM) which is generally capable of simulating the complexities of urban growth. The chief components of the model are outlined and quantitative and qualitative methods of validation are described. The results of the validation show that the model is to a large extent successful at replicating the spatial patterns over time for Riyadh although closer examination reveals several minor anomalies which cannot readily be explained. The authors conclude that the model offers significant benefits for simulating urban growth and change, for urban planning and decision-support for policy makers and others, but further research will be necessary on methods of validating and interpreting the detailed results.
The city of Riyadh in Saudi Arabia has undergone phenomenal urban development over the last six decades. As a result of poor planning and management by the authorities, Riyadh has experienced haphazard urban growth. In the companion paper, a fuzzy cellular automata model of urban growth was presented (Al-Ahmadi et al. 2008b). This model was shown to be capable of replicating the trends and characteristics of an urban environment, in this case the city of Riyadh. In this paper, the model is used to study and evaluate several different planning scenarios, both baseline ones and scenarios that relate to actual Saudi government policy. The results demonstrate that the model is capable of predicting plausible patterns of future urban growth. The model also has wider implications for use as a spatial planning support tool for urban planners and decision-makers in Saudi Arabia.
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