Plants provide fundamental support systems for life on Earth and are the basis for all terrestrial ecosystems; a decline in plant diversity will be detrimental to all other groups of organisms including humans. Decline in plant diversity has been hard to quantify, due to the huge numbers of known and yet to be discovered species and the lack of an adequate baseline assessment of extinction risk against which to track changes. The biodiversity of many remote parts of the world remains poorly known, and the rate of new assessments of extinction risk for individual plant species approximates the rate at which new plant species are described. Thus the question ‘How threatened are plants?’ is still very difficult to answer accurately. While completing assessments for each species of plant remains a distant prospect, by assessing a randomly selected sample of species the Sampled Red List Index for Plants gives, for the first time, an accurate view of how threatened plants are across the world. It represents the first key phase of ongoing efforts to monitor the status of the world’s plants. More than 20% of plant species assessed are threatened with extinction, and the habitat with the most threatened species is overwhelmingly tropical rain forest, where the greatest threat to plants is anthropogenic habitat conversion, for arable and livestock agriculture, and harvesting of natural resources. Gymnosperms (e.g. conifers and cycads) are the most threatened group, while a third of plant species included in this study have yet to receive an assessment or are so poorly known that we cannot yet ascertain whether they are threatened or not. This study provides a baseline assessment from which trends in the status of plant biodiversity can be measured and periodically reassessed.

We evaluated the use of a simple rake sampling technique for predicting the biomass of submersed aquatic vegetation. Vegetation sampled from impounded areas of the Mississippi River using a rake sampling technique, was compared with vegetation harvested from 0.33-m 2 quadrats. The resulting data were used to model the relationship between rake indices and vegetation biomass (total and for individual species). We constructed linear regression models using log-transformed biomass data for sites sampled in 1999 and 2000. Data collected in 2001 were used to validate the resulting models. The coefficient of determination (R 2 ) for predicting total biomass was 0.82 and ranged from 0.59 (Potamogeton pectinatus) to 0.89 (Ceratophyllum demersum) for individual species. Application of the model to estimate total submersed aquatic vegetation is illustrated using data collected independent of this study. The accuracy and precision of the models tested indicate that the rake method data may be used to predict total vegetation biomass and biomass of selected species; however, the method should be tested in other regions, in other plant communities, and on other species.

In an effort to enhance aquatic plant production and habitat diversity on the Upper Mississippi River (UMR), resource managers considered water level reduction as a management tool to increase the area of emergent and submersed aquatic vegetation by natural seed germination. To quantify the availability of seed, we assessed the potential seed bank of selected areas of Navigation Pool 8 of the UMR from substrate samples collected in spring 2000. We tested these samples for viable seed content under four hydrologic conditions: dry, moist, shallow flooded and submerged. Forty-seven species were identified in the seed bank, including 27 obligate wetland, 10 facultative wetland and 7 upland species. Dominant taxa within the seed bank included Sagittaria spp., Lindernia dubia, Zosterella dubia, Cyperus spp., Eragrostis spp. and Leersia oryzoides. Of the four hydrologic treatments, moist substrates had the greatest species diversity and were the most productive, yielding an average density of 1420 seedlings m À2. Emergent and submersed aquatic species were widely distributed, each type occurring in more than 90% of the samples. Timing of seedling germination varied among species and has implications for scheduling drawdowns to promote establishment of desired species. Seed bank results were correlated with the vegetation response on substrates exposed during a reduction of water levels of Pool 8 during summer 2001. Experimentally determining the composition and viability of seed banks from drawdown areas provides information useful in predicting the types of vegetation that may develop on exposed substrates. Further, these findings provide resource managers a better understanding of the potential for achieving desired vegetation response through water level reductions. Published in

The combined effects of fire history, climate, and landscape features (e.g., edges) on habitat specialists need greater focus in fire ecology studies, which usually only emphasize characteristics of the most recent fire. Florida scrub‐jays are an imperiled, territorial species that prefer medium (1.2–1.7 m) shrub heights, which are dynamic because of frequent fires. We measured short, medium, and tall habitat quality states annually within 10‐ha grid cells (that represented potential territories) because fires and vegetative recovery cause annual variation in habitat quality. We used multistate models and model selection to test competing hypotheses about how transition probabilities vary between states as functions of environmental covariates. Covariates included vegetative type, edges (e.g., roads and forests), precipitation, openings (gaps between shrubs), mechanical cutting, and fire characteristics. Fire characteristics not only included an annual presence/absence of fire covariate, but also fire history covariates: time since the previous fire, the longest fire‐free interval, and the number of repeated fires. Statistical models with support included many covariates for each transition probability, often including fire history, interactions, and nonlinear relationships. Tall territories resulted from 28 yr of fire suppression and habitat fragmentation that reduced the spread of fires across landscapes. Despite 35 yr of habitat restoration and prescribed fires, half the territories remained tall, suggesting a regime shift to a less desirable habitat condition. Edges reduced the effectiveness of fires in setting degraded scrub and flatwoods into earlier successional states, making mechanical cutting an important tool to compliment frequent prescribed fires.

Adult nonbreeders are important for the stability and conservation of many species despite that their functional roles are often undervalued. Nonbreeders can buffer breeding population sizes and help their kin raise new generations of offspring, but in high numbers can compete and have negative effects. Long‐term studies are useful for elucidating relationships among nonbreeder population parameters, such as density, survival, and transitions to breeding status. Florida scrub‐jays are cooperative breeders where young delay breeding often for many years and are at risk of extinction across most of their range. Our objectives were to estimate how population covariates (pair density and mean family size) influenced Florida scrub‐jay adult nonbreeder survival and breeding transitions using long‐term data of uniquely marked birds and multistate capture–recapture models. The evolution and maintenance of Florida scrub‐jay delayed breeding has been attributed to living in crowded and sharply delineated habitat at Archbold Biological Station, the site of longest long‐term study. Contrastingly, most habitat we studied had a dynamic mixture of habitat quality with mean family sizes and pair densities much lower than the stable, optimal habitat at Archbold Biological Station. Despite having densities below carrying capacity, Florida scrub‐jays still delayed breeding. We found that greater mean family size was associated with greater breeder survival, possibly because nonbreeders contributed to predator detection and territory defense. Nonbreeder‐to‐breeder transitions increased with increased annual breeder mortality rates but were influenced little by population densities. Most Florida scrub‐jays became breeders by replacing dead breeders within occupied territories, and many male and female nonbreeders inherited their territories upon the death of their parents. Nonbreeders buffered changes in the breeding population supporting greater recognition of nonbreeder population roles within field and modeling studies.

and the University of California at Dauis (Ph.D.). His fields of interest are organometallic chemistry and catalysis. He is currently a research chemist at Sun Oil Company and is actiue in the area of homogeneous transition metal catalysis. He is a member

Fecundity, the number of young produced by a breeding pair during a breeding season, is a primary component in evolutionary and ecological theory and applications.Fecundity can be influenced by many environmental factors and requires long-term study due to the range of variation in ecosystem dynamics. Fecundity data often include a large proportion of zeros when many pairs fail to produce any young during a breeding season due to nest failure or when all young die independently after fledging. We conducted color banding and monthly censuses of Florida scrub-jays (Aphelocoma coerulescens) across 31 years, 15 populations, and 761 territories along central Florida's Atlantic coast. We quantified how fecundity (juveniles/pair-year) was influenced by habitat quality, presence/absence of nonbreeders, population density, breeder experience, and rainfall, with a zero-inflated Bayesian hierarchical model including both a Bernoulli (e.g., brood success) and a Poisson (counts of young) submodel, and random effects for year, population, and territory. The results identified the importance of increasing "strong" quality habitat, which was a mid-successional state related to fire frequency and extent, because strong territories, and the proportion of strong territories in the overall population, influenced fecundity of breeding pairs. Populations subject to supplementary feeding also had greater fecundity.Territory size, population density, breeder experience, and rainfall surprisingly had no or small effects. Different mechanisms appeared to cause annual variation in fecundity, as estimates of random effects were not correlated between the success and count submodels. The increased fecundity for pairs with nonbreeders, compared to pairs without, identified empirical research needed to understand how the proportion of low-quality habitats influences population recovery and sustainability, because dispersal into low-quality habitats can drain nonbreeders from strong territories and decrease overall fecundity. We also describe how long-term study resulted in reversals in our understanding because of complications involving habitat quality, sociobiology, and population density.

Infanticide by newly immigrated or newly dominant males is reported among a variety of taxa, such as birds, rodents, carnivores and primates. Here we present a game theoretical model to explain the presence and prevalence of infanticide in primate groups. We have formulated a three-player game involving two males and one female and show that the strategies of infanticide on the males' part and polyandrous mating on the females' part emerge as Nash equilibria that are stable under certain conditions. Moreover, we have identified all the Nash equilibria of the game and arranged them in a novel hierarchical scheme. Only in the subspace spanned by the males are the Nash equilibria found to be strict, and hence evolutionarily stable. We have therefore proposed a selection mechanism informed by adaptive dynamics to permit the females to transition to, and remain in, optimal equilibria after successive generations. Our model concludes that polyandrous mating by females is an optimal strategy for the females that minimizes infanticide and that infanticide confers advantage to the males only in certain regions of parameter space. We have shown that infanticide occurs during turbulent changes accompanying male immigration into the group. For changes in the dominance hierarchy within the group, we have shown that infanticide occurs only in primate groups where the chance for the killer to sire the next infant is high. These conclusions are confirmed by observations in the wild. This model thus has enabled us to pinpoint the fundamental processes behind the reproductive decisions of the players involved, which was not possible using earlier theoretical studies.