Friesian cattle are considered the most sensitive to climate change-induced thermal stress and remain the major dairy breed in Kenya. This study applied the climate analogue concept to predict probable physiological and haematological responses of Friesian cattle in the 2050s to understand their adaptability to a changing and variable climate. Njoro in the Kenya Rift Valley Highlands was used as the reference site and its 2050s climate analogue site was identified in Shawa, based on criteria of a similarity index of 0.8-0.9. Results suggest that Njoro in the 2050s will likely experience increasing temperatures, but changes in rainfall are uncertain. The increasing temperatures will probably be accompanied by mild thermal stress for Friesian cattle during the dry seasons or drought. The thermal humidity index differed between times of day, but not between the analogue sites. Except for rectal temperatures, the physiological and haematological responses differed between the analogue sites, but were within the normal ranges. It is concluded that Friesian cattle in Njoro in the 2050s will probably experience mild thermal stress in the afternoons during the dry seasons, expressed by slight increases in physiological and haematological responses, but will probably remain within the normal margins.

New Zealand hill country sheep and beef farms contain land of various slope classes. The steepest slopes have the lowest pasture productivity and livestock carrying capacity and are the most vulnerable to soil mass movements. A potential management option for these areas of a farm is the planting of native shrubs which are browsable and provide erosion control, biodiversity, and a source of carbon credits. A bioeconomic whole farm model was developed by adding a native shrub sub-model to an existing hill country sheep and beef enterprise model to assess the impacts on feed supply, flock dynamics, and farm economics of converting 10% (56.4 hectares) of the entire farm, focusing on the steep slope areas, to native shrubs over a 50-year period. Two native shrub planting rates of 10% and 20% per year of the allocated area were compared to the status quo of no (0%) native shrub plantings. Mean annual feed supply dropped by 6.6% and 7.1% causing a reduction in flock size by 10.9% and 11.6% for the 10% and 20% planting rates, respectively, relative to 0% native shrub over the 50 years. Native shrub expenses exceeded carbon income for both planting rates and, together with reduced income from sheep flock, resulted in lower mean annual discounted total sheep enterprise cash operating surplus for the 10% (New Zealand Dollar (NZD) 20,522) and 20% (NZD 19,532) planting scenarios compared to 0% native shrubs (NZD 22,270). All planting scenarios had positive Net Present Value (NPV) and was highest for the 0% native shrubs compared to planting rates. Break-even carbon price was higher than the modelled carbon price (NZD 32/ New Zealand Emission Unit (NZU)) for both planting rates. Combined, this data indicates planting native shrubs on 10% of the farm at the modelled planting rates and carbon price would result in a reduction in farm sheep enterprise income. It can be concluded from the study that a higher carbon price above the break-even can make native shrubs attractive in the farming system.

Information on the nutritive value and in vitro fermentation characteristics of native shrubs in New Zealand is scant. This is despite their potential as alternatives to exotic trees and shrubs for sup-plementary fodder, and mitigation of greenhouse gas and soil erosion on hill country sheep and beef farms. The objectives of this study were to measure the in vitro fermentation gas production, predict parameters of in vitro fermentation kinetics and to estimate in vitro fermentation of volatile fatty acids (VFA), microbial biomass (MBM) and greenhouse gases of four native shrubs (Coprosma robusta, Griselinia littoralis, Hoheria populnea and Pittosporum crassifolium) and an exotic fodder tree species, Salix schwerinii. Total in vitro gas production was higher (p<0.05) for natives than S. schwerinii. Prediction using the single pool model resulted in biologically incorrect negative in vitro total gas production from the immediately soluble fraction of the native shrubs. However, the dual pool model better predicted in vitro total gas production and was in alignment with measured in vitro fermentation end products. In vitro VFA and greenhouse gas production from fermentation of leaf and stem material were higher (p<0.05), and MBM lower (p<0.05), for native shrubs com-pared to S. schwerinii. The lower in vitro total gas production, VFA and greenhouse gases produc-tion, and higher MBM of S. schwerinii may be explained by the presence of condensed tannins (CT), although this was not measured and requires further study. In conclusion, results from this study suggests that when consumed by ruminant livestock, the browsable native shrubs can provide adequate energy and microbial protein, and that greenhouse gas production from these species is within ranges reported for typical New Zealand pastures.

Information on the nutritive value and in vitro fermentation characteristics of native shrubs in New Zealand is scant. This is despite their potential as alternatives to exotic trees and shrubs for supplementary fodder, and their mitigation of greenhouse gases and soil erosion on hill-country sheep and beef farms. The objectives of this study were to measure the in vitro fermentation gas production, predict the parameters of the in vitro fermentation kinetics, and estimate the in vitro fermentation of volatile fatty acids (VFA), microbial biomass (MBM), and greenhouse gases of four native shrubs (Coprosma robusta, Griselinia littoralis, Hoheria populnea, and Pittosporum crassifolium) and an exotic fodder tree species, Salix schwerinii. The total in vitro gas production was higher (p < 0.05) for the natives than for the S. schwerinii. A prediction using the single-pool model resulted in biologically incorrect negative in vitro total gas production from the immediately soluble fraction of the native shrubs. However, the dual pool model better predicted the in vitro total gas production and was in alignment with the measured in vitro fermentation end products. The in vitro VFA and greenhouse gas production from the fermentation of leaf and stem material was higher (p < 0.05), and the MBM lower (p < 0.05), for the native shrubs compared to the S. schwerinii. The lower in vitro total gas production, VFA, and greenhouse gases production and higher MBM of the S. schwerinii may be explained by the presence of condensed tannins (CT), although this was not measured and requires further study. In conclusion, the results from this study suggest that when consumed by ruminant livestock, browsable native shrubs can provide adequate energy and microbial protein, and that greenhouse-gas production from these species is within the ranges reported for typical New Zealand pastures.